We need someone in the middle here. Kevin is a modernist, who hallucinates that today’s women of country are making good county music music. I’m a diehard traditionalist who thinks that the music got ruined when they added drums and firmly believes that a song that runs over 3:15 is too long. From your comments, you would seem to bridge the gap nicely

Entertainer of the Year
Will Win: Rascal Flatts.
Should Win: Brad Paisley.
The stint in rehab will cost Urban his crown– had that happened later in the voting period, he likely would’ve held on, though. Rascal Flatts will win because of their commercial stats, certainly not because they’re the best live entertainers.

Male Vocalist
Will Win: Brad Paisley.
Should Win: Alan Jackson.
Should Have Been Nominated: Gary Allan.
Paisley is overdue for a big award or two, and he’s a better singer than he’s often credited for. But Jackson’s _Like Red on a Rose_ album is stunning and shows him to be by far the best vocalist nominated this year… since Allan was snubbed. Again.

Female Vocalist
Will Win: Carrie Underwood.
Should Win: Sara Evans, I guess.
Should Have Been Nominated: LeAnn Rimes.

After mulling it over a bit, I think not standing by her man will alienate Evans from country music’s conservative voters– even if she is an ardent supporter of the GOP, and even if she’s a few years overdue to have won this award. Underwood, with her combination of commercial stats, public endorsed pipes, and completely “wholesome” images, is a perfectly safe choice, and I think she’ll pull off the surprising upset. LeAnn Rimes should’ve been nominated for having the best run of her career, both critically and commercially.

Album of the Year
Will Win: _Time Well Wasted_, Brad Paisley.
Should Win: _Time Well Wasted_, Brad Paisley.
Should Have Been Nominated: _Tough All Over_, Gary Allan.

Paisley benefits from a likely vote-split between Rascal Flatts’ and Kenny Chesney’s pop albums. That Chesney has, indefensibly, won in this category before gives him a shot, though. Other than Paisley, Gary Allan released the best mainstream country album of the last year.

Vocal Group of the Year
Will Win: Rascal Flatts.
Should Win: Alison Krauss & Union Station (featuring Jerry Douglas).

Krauss & Co. could pull the upset if Sugarland pulls enough votes away from Rascal Flatts. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

Vocal Duo of the Year
Will Win: Brooks & Dunn.
Should Win: Brooks & Dunn.

For the past few years, I would’ve given this to Big & Rich, but I think Brooks & Dunn had far stronger material this year. But, as always, this category should’ve been merged with the Best Vocal Group category to cut out the fat.

Single of the Year
Will Win: “Jesus, Take the Wheel,” Carrie Underwood.
Should Win: “Better Life,” Keith Urban.
Should Have Been Nominated: “Probably Wouldn’t Be This Way,” LeAnn Rimes.

In terms of production values, Urban’s single is a rare example of pop country that’s not embarassing either as “pop” or as “country.” But, with the exception of “Summertime,” which isn’t even one of Chesney’s five best singles of the last year let alone one of the five best singles *period*, this is one of the stronger line-ups the CMAs have had in recent years. Urban could take the win from the biggest radio hit of the bunch if the three Jesus-y songs vote-split.

Song of the Year
Will Win: “When I Get Where I’m Going”
Should Win: “Tonight I Wanna Cry”
Should Have Been Nominated: “Life Ain’t Always Beautiful,” Gary Allan.

Country music generally doesn’t like its men to skew as emo as Urban does on “Tonight I Wanna Cry,” so he’s the long-shot in this category, though I think it’s the best-written song of the bunch. Since the winners of Single & Song of the year don’t always have to match up for the CMAs, I think Paisley’s more traditional song will win here, while Underwood takes Single of the Year. Again, this is another category where Gary Allan was snubbed.

Musical Event of the Year
Will Win: “When I Get Where I’m Going,” Brad Paisley & Dolly Parton.
Should Win: “When I Get Where I’m Going,” Brad Paisley & Dolly Parton.
Should Have Been Nominated: “Jackson,” Joaquin Phoenix & Reese Witherspoon.

Not a particularly strong year for collaborations. I would’ve replaced the gross Wilson & Haggard cut with Phoenix & Witherspoon’s spirited version of “Jackson” from Walk the Line.

Video of the Year
Will Win: “When I Get Where I’m Going,” Brad Paisley & Dolly Parton.
Should Win: “Kerosene,” Miranda Lambert.

CMA voters have no idea what in the hell they’re voting for in this category, so they usually just go for the biggest single or something obviously sentimental– which is why “When I Get Where I’m Going” will beat Lambert’s fiery video.

Horizon Award
Will Win: Carrie Underwood.
Should Win: Miranda Lambert.

Underwood’s actually my pick as the weakest, artistically, of the five nominees this year by a good margin, but her commercial impact is impossible to deny. Lambert, on the other hand, is the biggest talent to emerge on a major label in Nashville since The Dixie Chicks. I don’t think Kevin’s prediction of Josh Turner is entirely unreasonable, but I just don’t see that happening. Underwood is already too big a star to lose this award.

Musician of the Year
Will Win: Jerry Douglas.
Should Win: Any of the six nominees.

Year in and year out, this category puts to shame the other CMA nominees. And I agree that Douglas will likely win because he has the highest profile of the bunch.