As always, we start with a look at this year’s nominees and work our way back to 1968.

2010

• Zac Brown Band, “Toes”
• Billy Currington, “People Are Crazy”
• Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now”
• Miranda Lambert, “White Liar”
• David Nail, “Red Light”

There’s usually a “Huh?” nominee among the ACM list in recent years.  This year, it’s David Nail.  Good for him!  Currington hasn’t won yet for this hit, even though he got himself a Grammy nomination for it.  With Lady Antebellum reaching the upper ranks of the country and pop charts with “Need You Now”, my guess is that they’re the presumptive favorites. Then again, Miranda Lambert is a nominee for the third straight year, and she’s up for her biggest radio hit.

2009

• Trace Adkins, “You’re Gonna Miss This”
• Jamey Johnson, “In Color”
• Miranda Lambert, “Gunpowder & Lead”
• Heidi Newfield, “Johnny and June”
• Brad Paisley, “Waitin’ On a Woman”

Adkins has been a fairly regular fixture on country radio since 1996, but this was his first major industry award.  He also won the ACM for Top New Male Vocalist in 1997.

2008

• Gary Allan, “Watching Airplanes”
• Big & Rich, “Lost in This Moment”
• Kenny Chesney, “Don’t Blink”
• Miranda Lambert, “Famous in a Small Town”
• Sugarland, “Stay”

“Stay” swept the Song of the Year categories at all three industry shows, along with winning the ACM for Single Record.  Allan’s presence here shows that being a little West Coast can still help a guy at the ACMs.

2007

• Heartland, “I Loved Her First”
• Rascal Flatts, “What Hurts the Most”
• George Strait, “Give it Away”
• Josh Turner, “Would You Go With Me”
• Carrie Underwood, “Before He Cheats”

George Strait earned his second ACM Single Record award a decade after his first (“Check Yes or No”) and two and a half decades after having his first radio hit.  Underwood won at the CMAs later that year.  “Give it Away” is one of a small group of ACM winners to not receive a nomination at the CMA ceremony.

2006

• Gary Allan, “Best I Ever Had”
• Brooks & Dunn, “Believe”
• Brad Paisley, “Alcohol”
• Sugarland, “Baby Girl”
• Carrie Underwood, “Jesus, Take the Wheel”

In the battle of biblical hits, the CMA picked Brooks & Dunn but the ACM picked Carrie Underwood.  Much like George Strait would later win a CMA trophy for a different single (“I Saw God Today”), Underwood later triumphed at the CMA with “Before He Cheats.”

2005

• Tim McGraw, “Live Like You Were Dying”
• Brad Paisley with Alison Krauss, “Whiskey Lullaby”
• Rascal Flatts, “Bless the Broken Road”
• Keith Urban, “Days Go By”
• Gretchen Wilson, “Redneck Woman”
• Lee Ann Womack, “I May Hate Myself in the Morning”

Because McGraw picked up the trophy at the CMAs in 2004, the field was cleared for Womack to win the CMA later in 2005.  McGraw had won the ACM before for “It’s Your Love.”

2004

• Brooks & Dunn, “Red Dirt Road”
• Alan Jackson with Jimmy Buffett, “It’s Five O’ Clock Somewhere”
• Alan Jackson, “Remember When”
• Toby Keith, “American Soldier”
• Randy Travis, “Three Wooden Crosses”

Among all the lead nominees, only Toby Keith wasn’t a previous winner. Still, the award went to the new alcoholic’s creed, winning over a more pensive Jackson track and a big comeback hit for Randy Travis.

2003

• Kenny Chesney, “The Good Stuff”
• Toby Keith, “Courtesy of the Red, White, and Blue (The Angry American)”
• Trick Pony, “Just What I Do”
• Keith Urban, “Somebody Like You”
• Mark Wills, “19 Somethin’”

Chesney spent nearly two months at #1 with this hit, perhaps giving him the edge over the other mega-hits at radio from Keith, Urban, and Wills. As for the Trick Pony nomination, somebody really should find out what Heidi Newfield has on those ACM voters.

2002

• Brooks & Dunn, “Ain’t Nothin’ ‘Bout You”
• Diamond Rio, “One More Day”
• Alan Jackson, “Where Were You (When the World Stopped Turning)”
• Toby Keith, “I Wanna Talk About Me”
• Travis Tritt, “It’s a Great Day to Be Alive”

Jackson’s powerful 9/11 reflection stands out as the only ballad among his four ACM Single Record victories.

2001

• Toby Keith, “How Do You Like Me Now?!”
• John Michael Montgomery, “The Little Girl”
• Jamie O’Neal, “There is No Arizona”
• Aaron Tippin, “Kiss This”
• Lee Ann Womack with Sons of the Desert, “I Hope You Dance”

Toby Keith’s run of four consecutive nominations began this year. His album of the same name proved victorious that evening.  Womack’s massive hit became an instant standard, and is incidentally the most recent winner to also be a genuine crossover hit.

2000

• Dixie Chicks, “Ready to Run”
• Lonestar, “Amazed”
• Tim McGraw, “Please Remember Me”
• Brad Paisley, “He Didn’t Have to Be”
• George Strait, “Write This Down”

As pop hits go, this one was a monster. “Amazed” even topped the Hot 100, the first country single to do so since “Islands in the Stream.”

1999

• Faith Hill, “This Kiss”
• Martina McBride, “A Broken Wing”
• Shania Twain, “You’re Still the One”
• Steve Wariner, “Holes in the Floor of Heaven”
• The Wilkinsons, “26 Cents”

Hill and hubby Tim McGraw each have two ACM trophies in this category, one solo and one shared.

1998

• Diamond Rio, “How Your Love Makes Me Feel”
• Tim McGraw with Faith Hill, “It’s Your Love”
• LeAnn Rimes, “How Do I Live”
• George Strait, “Carrying Your Love With Me”
• Trisha Yearwood, “How Do I Live (from “Con Air”)”

While Yearwood had won over Rimes at the Grammys a few weeks earlier, the ACM sidestepped the big controversy of the year and gave the trophy to the biggest hit in the bunch.

1997

• Brooks & Dunn, “My Maria”
• Deana Carter, “Strawberry Wine”
• Tracy Lawrence, “Time Marches On”
• LeAnn Rimes, “Blue”
• George Strait, “Carried Away”

It’s rare that the ACM goes with the song that was least successful at radio, but don’t let that #10 peak of “Blue” fool you.  That hit was responsible for millions of record sales.

1996

• Brooks & Dunn, “You’re Gonna Miss Me When I’m Gone”
• Faith Hill, “It Matters to Me”
• Tim McGraw, “I Like It, I Love It”
• George Strait, “Check Yes or No”
• Shania Twain, “Any Man of Mine”

It was a stroke of marketing brilliance: add two singles to a box set of a genre superstar. When the first single became one of his biggest hits, the box set quickly became the top selling in country music history.

1995

• Joe Diffie, “Third Rock From the Sun”
• Vince Gill, “Tryin’ to Get Over You”
• Alan Jackson, “Livin’ On Love”
• Tim McGraw, “Don’t Take the Girl”
• John Michael Montgomery, “I Swear”

There have been a few wedding standards to win this award, though Montgomery’s hit didn’t cross over in its original form.

1994

• Clint Black with Wynonna, “A Bad Goodbye”
• Garth Brooks, “Ain’t Goin’ Down (‘Til the Sun Comes Up)”
• Alan Jackson, “Chattahoochee”
• Reba McEntire with Linda Davis, “Does He Love You”
• Dwight Yoakam, “Ain’t That Lonely Yet”

Jackson won the ACM with his massive hit, but the McEntire/Davis duet and the Yoakam track were Grammy winners.

1993

• John Anderson, “Straight Tequila Night”
• Brooks & Dunn, “Boot Scootin’ Boogie”
• Billy Ray Cyrus, “Achy Breaky Heart”
• Collin Raye, “Love, Me”
• Tanya Tucker, “Two Sparrows in a Hurricane”

Brooks & Dunn are among the most nominated artists in this category’s history, but this is their only victory.

1992

• Clint Black, “Where Are You Now”
• Garth Brooks, “Shameless”
• Alan Jackson, “Don’t Rock the Jukebox”
• Travis Tritt, “Here’s a Quarter (Call Someone Who Cares)”
• Trisha Yearwood, “She’s in Love With the Boy”

This was Jackson’s first major industry award.

1991

• Alabama, “Jukebox in My Mind”
• Garth Brooks, “Friends in Low Places”
• Vince Gill, “When I Call Your Name”
• Alan Jackson, “Here in the Real World”
• Shenandoah, “Next to You, Next to Me”

Garth-mania was beginning to peak in 1991. He swept the ACMs that  year.

1990

• Clint Black, “Better Man”
• Garth Brooks, “If Tomorrow Never Comes”
• Patty Loveless, “Timber I’m Falling in Love”
• Keith Whitley, “I’m No Stranger to the Rain”
• Hank Williams & Hank Williams Jr., “There’s a Tear in My Beer”

Clint Black is one of only three artists in the last twenty years to win for their first proper single, with Carrie Underwood and LeAnn Rimes being the other two.

1989

• Kathy Mattea, “Eighteen Wheels and a Dozen Roses”
• K.T. Oslin, “I’ll Always Come Back”
• Ricky Van Shelton, “I’ll Leave This World Loving You”
• Randy Travis, “I Told You So”
• Keith Whitley, “Don’t Close Your Eyes”

Mattea’s award-winning hit had such a high profile that it was even referenced in the dialog of the hit movie Rain Man.

1988

• Restless Heart, “I’ll Still Be Loving You”
• Ricky Van Shelton, “Somebody Lied”
• George Strait, “All My Ex’s Live in Texas”
• Randy Travis, “Forever and Ever, Amen”
• Hank Williams Jr., “Born to Boogie”

Travis won for the second year in a row with what would become his signature hit.

1987

• Alabama, “Touch Me When We’re Dancing”
• Janie Fricke, “Always Have, Always Will”
• The Judds, “Rockin’ With the Rhythm of the Rain”
• Reba McEntire, “Whoever’s in New England”
• Randy Travis, “On the Other Hand”

This was technically his first single, but when released under the name Randy Traywick, it bombed. Warner Bros. then released “1982″ under Randy Travis, and it went top ten. They then re-released this song, and it became his first #1 hit.

1986

• Lee Greenwood, “Dixie Road”
• Waylon Jennings, Willie Nelson, Johnny Cash, Kris Kristofferson, “Highwayman”
• The Judds, “Love is Alive”
• Mel McDaniel, “Baby’s Got Her Blue Jeans On”
• Hank Williams Jr., “I’m For Love”

So successful was this winning single that the four legends would go on to release future collaborations as the Highwaymen.

1985

• Alabama, “When We Make Love”
• Julio Iglesias & Willie Nelson, “To All the Girls I’ve Loved Before”
• The Judds, “Why Not Me”
• John Schneider, “I’ve Been Around Enough to Know”
• Conway Twitty, “I Don’t Know a Thing About Love (The Moon Song)”

Say what you want about this winner, but it was popular enough to sell two million 45s.

1984

• John Anderson, “Swingin’”
• Anne Murray, “A Little Good News”
• Willie Nelson & Merle Haggard, “Pancho  and Lefty”
• Kenny Rogers & Dolly Parton, “Islands in the Stream”
• Shelly West, “José Cuervo”

Another pop smash that moved two million 45s. Is there anybody over 30 who can’t sing along to the chorus?

1983

• David Frizzell, “I’m Gonna Hire a Wino to Decorate Our Home”
• Willie Nelson, “Always on My Mind”
• Kenny Rogers, “Love Will Turn You Around”
• Ricky Skaggs, “Crying My Heart Out Over You”
• Sylvia, “Nobody”

Nelson’s had quite a few signature hits, but none bigger than this one.

1982

• Rosanne Cash, “Seven Year Ache”
• David Frizzell & Shelly West, “You’re the Reason God Made Oklahoma”
• Barbara Mandrell, “I Was Country When Country Wasn’t Cool”
• Ronnie Milsap, “(There’s) No Gettin’ Over Me”
• Oak Ridge Boys, “Elvira”

This might be the most pop-flavored lineup in category’s history. Even the Mandrell hit doth protest too much.

1981

• George Jones, “He Stopped Loving Her Today”
• Johnny Lee, “Lookin’ For Love”
• Dolly Parton, “9 to 5″
• Eddie Rabbitt, “Drivin’ My Life Away”
• Don Williams, “I Believe in You”

Jones capped his biggest comeback in a career defined by them with several awards for this classic hit.

1980

• Charlie Daniels Band, “Devil Went Down to Georgia”
• Larry Gatlin & The Gatlin Brothers Band, “All the Gold in California”
• Crystal Gayle, “Half the Way”
• Waylon Jennings, “Amanda”
• Kenny Rogers, “Coward of the County”

West Coast represent!

1979

• Crystal Gayle, “Talking in Your Sleep”
• Loretta Lynn, “Out of My Head and Back in My Bed”
• Willie Nelson, “Georgia On My Mind”
• Waylon & Willie, “Mammas Don’t Let Your Babies Grow Up to be Cowboys”
• Don Williams, “Tulsa Time”

In a category of superstars, the Gentle Giant of Country Music was the victor.

1978

• Debby Boone, “You Light Up My Life”
• Crystal Gayle, “Don’t it Make My Brown Eyes Blue”
• Waylon Jennings, “Luckenbach, Texas (Back to the Basics of Love)”
• Kenny Rogers, “Lucille”
• Linda Ronstadt, “Blue Bayou”

All of these records made a big impact on both the country and the pop chart.

1977

• Mickey Gilley, “Bring it On Home to Me”
• Loretta Lynn, “Somebody Somewhere (Don’t Know What He’s Missin’ Tonight)”
• Marty Robbins, “El Paso City”
• Red Sovine, “Teddy Bear”
• Waylon & Willie, “Good Hearted Woman”

A surprising win, perhaps fueled by the momentum of Gilley’s previous single, “Don’t the Girls All Get Prettier at Closing Time.”

1976

• Glen Campbell, “Rhinestone Cowboy”
• Freddie Fender, “Before the Next Teardrop Falls”
• Mickey Gilley, “Overnight Sensation”
• Willie Nelson, “Blue Eyes Crying in the Rain”
• Kenny Starr, “The Blind Man in the Bleachers”

Campbell made quite the comeback with this one, and it later inspired the Dolly Parton film vehicle Rhinestone, which earned an ACM nomination of its own for the Tex Ritter Award.

1975

• John Denver, “Back Home Again”
• Merle Haggard, “Things Aren’t Funny Anymore”
• Ronnie Milsap, “(I’d Be) A Legend in My Time”
• Cal Smith, “Country Bumpkin”
• Billy Swan, “I Can Help”

Smith may not have gotten all the recognition that his talent warranted, but he made two undeniable classics: “The Lord Knows I’m Drinking”, and his winner here.

1974

• Merle Haggard, “If We Make it Through December”
• Byron MacGregor, “The Americans”
• Jeanne Pruett, “Satin Sheets”
• Charlie Rich, “Behind Closed Doors”
• Charlie Rich, “The Most Beautiful Girl”

Rich’s two hits were so big that even with vote-splitting, he still emerged the winner.

1973

• Donna Fargo, “The Happiest Girl in the Whole U.S.A.”
• Merle Haggard, “It’s Not Love (But It’s Not Bad)”
• Johnny Rodriguez, “Pass Me By (If You’re Only Passing Through)”
• Jerry Wallace, “If You Leave Me Tonight I’ll Cry”
• Faron Young, “Four in the Morning”

Fargo was a local star on the West Coast before she broke through nationwide with this hit, dominating the 1973 ACM Awards as a result.

1972

• Merle Haggard, “Carolyn”
• Freddie Hart, “Easy Loving”
• Loretta Lynn and Conway Twitty, “Lead Me On”
• Loretta Lynn, “One’s On the Way”
• Charley Pride, “Kiss an Angel Good Morning”

This gold-selling classic helped Hart triumph over the superstars of his day.

1971

• Lynn Anderson, “Rose Garden”
• Merle Haggard, “The Fightin’ Side of Me”
• Anne Murray, “Snowbird”
• Ray Price, “For the Good Times”
• Sammi Smith, “Help Me Make it Through the Night”

Each one of these is a classic in its own right. In a battle of Kristofferson-penned hits, Price emerged victorious, though Smith won the CMA later that year.

1970

• Glen Campbell, “Try a Little Kindness”
• Johnny Cash, “A Boy Named Sue”
• Merle Haggard, “Okie From Muskogee”
• Billy Mize, “Make it Rain”
• Elvis Presley, “Don’t Cry Daddy”
• Freddy Weller, “Games People Play”
• Tammy Wynette, “Stand By Your Man”

Haggard’s only victory in this category came on a night where he also won Album of the Year for the only time in several nominations.

1969

• Glen Campbell, “Wichita Lineman”
• Merle Haggard, “I Take a Lot of Pride in What I Am”
• Merle Haggard, “The Legend of Bonnie and Clyde”
• Merle Haggard, “Mama Tried”
• Roger Miller, “Little Green Apples”

Miller’s known for his legendary songwriting, but his winning hit here was penned by Bobby Russell.

1968

• Glen Campbell, “Burning Bridges”
• Glen Campbell, “Gentle on My Mind”
• The Gosdin Bros., “Hangin’ On”
• Bobbie Gentry, “Ode to Billy Joe”
• Merle Haggard, “Branded Man”
• Merle Haggard, “I’m a Lonesome Fugitive”

A young Vern Gosdin made up half of the nominated Gosdin Bros., a nice historical footnote to the first year of this category. Glen Campbell’s victory was appropriately West Coast for the ACMs first attempt at honoring the national country music scene.

Facts & Feats:

Most Wins

• (4) – Alan Jackson
• (3) – Willie Nelson
• (2) – Glen Campbell, Faith Hill, Tim McGraw, Kenny Rogers, George Strait, Randy Travis

Most Nominations

• (12) – Merle Haggard
• (8) – Willie Nelson
• (6) – Brooks & Dunn, Alan Jackson, George Strait
• (5) – Glen Campbell, Waylon Jennings, Tim McGraw
• (4) – Garth Brooks, Toby Keith, Loretta Lynn, Brad Paisley, Kenny Rogers, Randy Travis

Most Nominations Without a Win

• (4) – Toby Keith, Loretta Lynn, Brad Paisley
• (3) – Alabama, Crystal Gayle, The Judds, Miranda Lambert, Hank Williams Jr.

Singles that Won Both the ACM and CMA Award:

• Merle Haggard, “Okie From Muskogee”
• Donna Fargo, “The Happiest Girl in the Whole U.S.A.”
• Charlie Rich, “Behind Closed Doors”
• Cal Smith, ‘Country Bumpkin”
• Kenny Rogers, “Lucille”
• George Jones, “He Stopped Loving Her Today”
• Oak Ridge Boys, “Elvira”
• Willie Nelson, “Always On My Mind”
• Randy Travis, “Forever and Ever, Amen”
• Kathy Mattea, “Eighteen Wheels and a Dozen Roses”
• Garth Brooks, “Friends in Low Places”
• Alan Jackson, “Chattahoochee”
• John Michael Montgomery, “I Swear”
• George Strait, “Check Yes or No”
• Lee Ann Womack with Sons of the Desert, “I Hope You Dance”
• Alan Jackson, “Where Were You (When the World Stopped Turning)”
• Tim McGraw, “Live Like You Were Dying”

You know the drill. For each of the categories, we’ll look at who’s broken in since last year, who’s been excused, and then make a totally judgy statement about what it all means.

Entertainer of the Year

• Kenny Chesney
• Toby Keith
• Brad Paisley
• George Strait
• Taylor Swift
• Carrie Underwood
• Keith Urban
• Zac Brown Band

Who’s In: Who isn’t?

Who’s Out: No one.

Snap Judgment: My best guess about the surprise expansion of this category is that ACM thinks the Oscars are onto something. They’re not. But while the Oscars risk having a Best Picture nomination lose some of its prestige, I don’t think the same quite holds true for ACM Entertainer, since an artist can already be nominated multiple times throughout a career anyway (and most are). So this could actually work, I guess. If nothing else, it’ll be interesting.

Top Male Vocalist of the Year

• Kenny Chesney
• Brad Paisley
• Darius Rucker
• George Strait
• Keith Urban

Who’s In: Darius Rucker

Who’s Out: Toby Keith

Snap Judgment: No surprises here; it’s the same pool the CMA picked this past fall.

Top Female Vocalist of the Year

• Miranda Lambert
• Reba McEntire
• Taylor Swift
• Carrie Underwood
• Lee Ann Womack

Who’s In: Reba McEntire

Who’s Out: Martina McBride

Snap Judgment: Martina shaft! Drama drama!

Top Vocal Group of the Year

• Lady Antebellum
• Little Big Town
• Randy Rogers Band
• Rascal Flatts
• Zac Brown Band

Who’s In: Zac Brown Band

Who’s Out: The Lost Trailers

Snap Judgment: I imagine Love And Theft’s and Gloriana’s managers will be spending the morning trying to figure out who the hell Randy Rogers Band is. Seriously, I don’t know how RRB keeps squeezing into this race. Not complaining, though!

Top Vocal Duo of the Year

• Brooks & Dunn
• Joey + Rory
• Montgomery Gentry
• Steel Magnolia
• Sugarland

Who’s In: Steel Magnolia

Who’s Out: Big & Rich

Snap Judgment: What’s this? Five duos who actually did something in the last year? Get outta here.

Top New Solo Vocalist of the Year

• Luke Bryan
• Jamey Johnson
• Chris Young

Who’s In: Chris Young, Luke Bryan (both re-entries from previous years)

Who’s Out: Jake Owen (won last year), James Otto

Snap Judgment: I’m just pretending this is the Top New Male category, since ACM’s annual changing around of award names and criteria can be kind of silly. This is going to be an interesting race to watch, especially since all three of these guys are nominated their second time here. It’s the last chance any of them will have to win it.

Top New Vocal Duo of the Year

• Bomshel
• Joey + Rory
• Steel Magnolia

Who’s In: This category was merged with New Vocal Group last year, so none of these duos (being duos) were there.

Snap Judgment: Seriously, doesn’t this whole “actually having semi-active vocal duos” thing kind of weird you out at this point? (P.S. Vote for Joey + Rory!)

Top New Vocal Group of the Year

• Eli Young Band
• Gloriana
• The Lost Trailers

Who’s In: Gloriana

Who’s Out: Zac Brown Band (won last year)

Snap Judgment: Love And Theft HQ must be a grim, grim place today.

Album of the Year

• Brad Paisley, American Saturday Night
• Lady Antebellum, Lady Antebellum
• Miranda Lambert, Revolution
• Carrie Underwood, Play On
• Zac Brown Band, The Foundation

Snap Judgment: Not a bad lineup, but the ACM’s lenience in the Album category never ceases to amaze. Lady Antebellum came out two full years ago.

Single Record of the Year

• Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now”
• Billy Currington, “People Are Crazy”
• David Nail, “Red Light”
• Zac Brown Band, “Toes”
• Miranda Lambert, “White Liar”

Snap Judgment: I’m used to scratching my head in this category. Whatever.

Song of the Year

• “Cowboy Casanova” – Mike Elizondo, Brett James & Carrie Underwood
• “Need You Now” – Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
• “People Are Crazy” – Bobby Braddock & Troy Jones
• “White Liar” – Natalie Hemby & Miranda Lambert
• “You Belong With Me” – Liz Rose & Taylor Swift

Snap Judgment: …It’s like, do people even pay attention to lyrics anymore?

Video of the Year

• Randy Houser, “Boots On”
• Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now”
• Brad Paisley, “Welcome to the Future”
• Miranda Lambert, “White Liar”
• Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me”

Snap Judgment: Actually not a bad pool. The Lady A video is pretty boring, though.

Vocal Event of the Year

• Blake Shelton feat. Trace Adkins, “Hillbilly Bone”
• Brooks & Dunn feat. Billy Gibbons, “Honky Tonk Stomp”
• Carrie Underwood feat. Randy Travis, “I Told You So”
• Kenny Chesney with Dave Matthews, “I’m Alive”
• Jack Ingram with Patty Griffin, “Seeing Stars”

Snap Judgment: Eh.

- – -

What are y’all’s thoughts?

- Superhero television show about our blog from the 50′s.

We won’t be live-blogging this time around, but will be reacting to the show in a full post tomorrow, and welcome your reactions in comments on this post. The awards telecast starts at 8 pm Eastern, and I imagine there will be some red carpet action in the hour prior.

Record of the Year

Picks

• Beyonce, “Halo” – Kevin
• Black Eyed Peas, “I Gotta Feeling”
• Kings of Leon, “Use Somebody” - Tara
• Lady GaGa, “Poker Face” - Dan
• Taylor Swift, “You Belong with Me”

Predictions

• Beyonce, “Halo”
• Black Eyed Peas, “I Gotta Feeling”
• Kings of Leon, “Use Somebody” – Kevin, Dan, Tara
• Lady GaGa, “Poker Face”
• Taylor Swift, “You Belong with Me”

Kevin: Am I wrong for preferring Eric Cartman’s rendition of “Poker Face” over the original? This is a pretty lightweight slate of contenders. I really like “Halo”, but I suspect Kings of Leon will win, simply because it’s the only rock song in a lineup of pop hits.

Dan: “Poker Face” just feels very representative of popular music in 2009. I wouldn’t whine if it got passed over so that “Bad Romance” could take this award next year, though.

Tara: I would’ve pulled for “Single Ladies” in a heartbeat had it been submitted, but “Use Somebody” is just as deserving of this award. It’s a fantastic song even outside the context of its moment in pop culture, and it’s the kind of larger-than-life song that the voters have picked to win in the past.

Album of the Year

Picks

• Beyonce, I Am…Sasha Fierce
• Black Eyed Peas, The E.N.D.
• Lady GaGa, The Fame – Kevin, Tara
• Dave Matthews Band, Big Whiskey and the Groogrux King
• Taylor Swift, Fearless - Dan

Predictions

• Beyonce, I Am…Sasha Fierce
• Black Eyed Peas, The E.N.D.
• Lady GaGa, The Fame
• Dave Matthews Band, Big Whiskey and the Groogrux King - Kevin
• Taylor Swift, Fearless - Dan, Tara

Kevin: I’d like to see dance music get some respect in the big category, even if there are a half-dozen Madonna albums at this point that would’ve been worthier winners than The Fame. Again, I think the Top 40 votes are going to be split, leaving Dave Matthews Band the winners.

Dan: In little over a year, Fearless has grown from success story to cultural artifact. It’s that rare pop album that seems to have a personality all its own, like Jagged Little Pill in a yellow sundress (and sung about as well). I could see anyone but the Peas taking this, but I think Swift’s support in both Nashville and the Top 40 crowd will take her to the top.

Tara: I have to say I was fairly shocked to see Swift’s truckload of Grammy nominations, so I’m having a little trouble wrapping my mind around the Academy’s thought process – but, I suppose a Swift win in this category is inevitable. However, I fully back Lady GaGa, who is the perfect storm of creativity, vision, swagger and raw vocal talent (remember that, pop world?).

Song of the Year

Picks

• “Poker Face”, Lady GaGa & RedOne
• “Pretty Wings”, Hod David & Musze
• “Single Ladies (Put A Ring On It)”, Thaddis Harrell, Beyoncé Knowles, Terius Nash & Christopher Stewart
• “Use Somebody”, Caleb Followill, Jared Followill, Matthew Followill & Nathan Followill- Kevin, Dan, Tara
• “You Belong With Me”, Liz Rose & Taylor Swift

Predictions

• Miranda Lambert, “Dead Flowers”
• Martina McBride, “I Just Call You Mine”
• Taylor Swift, “White Horse” - Leeann
• Carrie Underwood, “Just A Dream” – Kevin, Dan, Tara
• Lee Ann Womack, “Solitary Thinkin’”

Best Country Collaboration with Vocals

Picks

• Dierks Bentley & Patty Griffin, “Beautiful World” - Leeann
• Kenny Chesney & Mac McAnally, “Down the Road”
• Brad Paisley & Keith Urban, “Start A Band”
• Carrie Underwood & Randy Travis, “I Told You So” – Kevin, Tara
• Lee Ann Womack & George Strait, “Everything But Quits” – Dan
  

Predictions

• Dierks Bentley & Patty Griffin, “Beautiful World”
• Kenny Chesney & Mac McAnally, “Down the Road”
• Brad Paisley & Keith Urban, “Start A Band” - Leeann
• Carrie Underwood & Randy Travis, “I Told You So” – Kevin, Tara, Dan
• Lee Ann Womack & George Strait, “Everything But Quits”

• Alison Brown, “Under the (Five) Wire”
• The Greencards, “The Crystal Merchant”
• Sarah Jarosz, “Mansinneedof” - Leeann
• Steve Wariner, “Producer’s Medley”

Predictions

• Alison Brown, “Under the (Five) Wire”
• The Greencards, “The Crystal Merchant”
• Sarah Jarosz, “Mansinneedof”
• Steve Wariner, “Producer’s Medley” - Leeann

Leeann: I think the nostalgia factor may give the push that the Wariner instrumental will need in order to win.

Best Country Song

Picks

• “All I Ask For Anymore”, Casey Beathard & Tim James
• “High Cost of Living”, Jamey Johnson & James Slater - Dan, Leeann, Tara
• “I Run to You”, Tom Douglas, Dave Haywood, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
• “People Are Crazy”, Bobby Braddock & Troy Jones
• “White Horse”, Liz Rose & Taylor Swift - Kevin
  

Predictions

• “All I Ask For Anymore”, Casey Beathard & Tim James
• “High Cost of Living”, Jamey Johnson & James Slater
• “I Run to You”, Tom Douglas, Dave Haywood, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
• “People Are Crazy”, Bobby Braddock & Troy Jones
• “White Horse”, Liz Rose & Taylor Swift - Leeann, Kevin, Tara, Dan

Kevin: Swift’s high profile benefits her most in the songwriting categories. It was no big surprise to see Shania Twain win this award for “You’re Still the One”, but when she repeated the following year for “Come On Over”, it proved how much star wattage can help in this race.

Leeann: I’m not going to bet against Taylor Swift, but I’d sure like to see “High Cost of Living” win this one.

Dan: It’s nice to know that NARAS is still willing to nominate a great non-hit. Not so sure they’re willing to give one a trophy, though.

Tara: What they said.

Best Country Album

Picks

• Zac Brown Band, The Foundation
• George Strait, Twang - Leeann, Kevin, Tara, Dan
  
• Taylor Swift, Fearless
  
• Keith Urban, Defying Gravity
• Lee Ann Womack, Call Me Crazy

Predictions

• Zac Brown Band, The Foundation
• George Strait, Twang
• Taylor Swift, Fearless – Dan, Leeann, Kevin, Tara
• Keith Urban, Defying Gravity
• Lee Ann Womack, Call Me Crazy

Kevin: It would be great to see Strait repeat, but it’s very rare for a country album to lose this race when it’s also nominated in the general Album field. It’s happened only once – 1999 – when Shania Twain’s Come On Over shockingly lost to Wide Open Spaces by the Dixie Chicks.

Leeann: I like the Strait album the most, but Taylor Swift is an undeniable force to be reckoned with.

Dan: Technically, I like the Swift album the most, but I’d love to see Strait win this particular award. He challenged his very established formula on Twang, and it worked. Plus I’ve never been fully comfortable calling Fearless a country album.

Tara: It’s Taylor Swift’s world right now, and we’re just living in it. Even you, Mr. Strait.

Best Americana Album

Picks

• Bob Dylan, Together Through Life
• Levon Helm, Electric Dirt
• Willie Nelson & Asleep At the Wheel, Willie and the Wheel – Leeann, Dan, Tara
  
• Wilco, Wilco (The Album)
• Lucinda Williams, Little Honey

Predictions

• Bob Dylan, Together Through Life - Dan
  
• Levon Helm, Electric Dirt
• Willie Nelson & Asleep At the Wheel, Willie and the Wheel – Leeann, Tara
  
• Wilco, Wilco (The Album)
  
• Lucinda Williams, Little Honey

Leeann: I particularly want Willie Nelson and Asleep at the Wheel to win this award, and I think they have a very good chance of doing it, too.

Dan: All really solid albums, and so many critical faves that it’s a hard call on the prediction. I’d love to see Nelson & Co. get their due for this long-in-the-making project.

Tara: Masterful album.

Best Bluegrass Album

Picks

• Jim Lauderdale, Could We Get Any Closer? – Leeann
• Steve Martin, The Crow / New Songs For The Five-String Banjo
• Michael Martin Murphey, Buckaroo Blue Grass
• Bryan Sutton and Friends, Almost Live
• Rhonda Vincent, Destination Live

Predictions

• Jim Lauderdale, Could We Get Any Closer?
• Steve Martin, The Crow / New Songs For The Five-String Banjo – Leeann
• Michael Martin Murphey, Buckaroo Blue Grass
• Bryan Sutton and Friends, Almost Live
• Rhonda Vincent, Destination Live

* denotes my personal wish:

Record of the Year

• Beyoncé, “Halo”  *
• The Black Eyed Peas, “I Gotta Feeling”
• Kings of Leon, “Use Somebody”
• Lady Gaga, “Poker Face”
• Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me”

It’s always nice to see a country radio hit in there, but I honestly can’t stand “You Belong With Me.”  I dig the Kings of Leon song, but the record that I enjoy the most here is “Halo.”  Some pundits have suggested that Beyoncé threw her chances at this trophy by submitting “Halo” instead of “Single Ladies”, but I like that song even less than “You Belong With Me.” Love “Halo”, though.

Song of the Year

• Lady Gaga & RedOne, “Poker Face”
• Hod David & Musze, “Pretty Wings”
• Thaddis Harrell, Beyoncé Knowles, Terius Nash & Christopher Stewart, “Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It)”
• Caleb Followill, Jared Followill, Matthew Followill & Nathan Followill, “Use Somebody”  *
• Liz Rose & Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me”

Great to see Liz Rose in there, too, but I still can’t stand the song.  I think “Use Somebody” is a great composition that could easily be a hit in other formats if the right artist covered it. Are you listening, Sugarland?

Best New Artist

• Zac Brown Band *
• Keri Hilson
• MGMT
• Silversun Pickups
• The Ting Tings

Zac Brown Band don’t quite live up to the hype, but they come a lot closer than last year’s nominee, Lady Antebellum.

Best Country Album

• Zac Brown Band, The Foundation
  
• George Strait, Twang *
  
• Taylor Swift, Fearless
• Keith Urban, Defying Gravity
• Lee Ann Womack, Call Me Crazy
  

There isn’t an album here that is built for more than cherry-picking. Strait’s set has the most cherries.

Best Female Country Vocal Performance

• Miranda Lambert, “Dead Flowers”
• Martina McBride, “I Just Call You Mine”
• Taylor Swift, “White Horse”
• Carrie Underwood, “Just a Dream” *
• Lee Ann Womack, “Solitary Thinkin’”

The only women who brought their A-game to this category are Swift and Underwood.  “White Horse” might be the better song, but Underwood’s is the better vocal performance by a country mile.

Best Male Country Vocal Performance

• Trace Adkins, “All I Ask For Anymore”
• Billy Currington, “People Are Crazy”
• Jamey Johnson, “High Cost of Living”
• George Strait, “Living For the Night” *
• Keith Urban, “Sweet Thing”

I love the Strait song, so it’s my pick, but this is one of the only strong categories this year and I wouldn’t mind seeing any of these five win.

Best Country Performance by a Duo or Group With Vocals

• Brooks & Dunn, “Cowgirls Don’t Cry”
• Zac Brown Band, “Chicken Fried”
• Lady Antebellum, “I Run to You”
• Rascal Flatts, “Here Comes Goodbye”
• Sugarland, “It Happens” *

No A-game here, but Sugarland’s B-game is better than the rest.

Best Country Vocal Collaboration

• Dierks Bentley & Patty Griffin, “Beautiful World”
• Kenny Chesney & Mac McAnally, “Down the Road”
• Brad Paisley & Keith Urban, “Start a Band”
• Carrie Underwood & Randy Travis, “I Told You So” *
• Lee Ann Womack & George Strait, “Everything But Quits”

Some amazing pairings here, but Underwood and Travis are the only ones with the material to match the talent.

Best Female Pop Vocal Performance

• Adele, “Hometown Glory”
• Beyoncé, “Halo”
• Katy Perry, “Hot N Cold”
• Pink, “Sober” *
• Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me”

Pink is an awesome songwriter, and easily the most substantial female pop star to come along in the last decade.  “Sober” is one of her best.

Best Pop Vocal Album

• The Black Eyed Peas, The End
• Colbie Caillat, The Breakthrough
• Kelly Clarkson, All I Ever Wanted
• The Fray, The Fray
• Pink, Funhouse *

It’s not quite as good as I’m Not Dead, but it comes close.

Best Dance Recording

• The Black Eyed Peas, “Boom Boom Pow”
• David Guetta and Kelly Rowland, “When Love Takes Over”
• Lady Gaga, “Poker Face”
• Madonna, “Celebration” *
• Britney Spears, “Womanizer”

Even her throwaway singles are built to last.