And they’re back: The 2014 ACM Awards air live on Sunday at 7 p.m. CST, hosted by Blake Shelton and Luke Bryan. They’re sure to be enraging or amusing, depending on your bro-country meter. In the meantime, we’ve picked and predicted the awards below – chime in with your thoughts!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win
- Luke Bryan
- Miranda Lambert
- Blake Shelton
- George Strait – KJC, TS, BF
- Taylor Swift
Will Win
- Luke Bryan – KJC, TS, BF, JK
- Miranda Lambert
- Blake Shelton
- George Strait
- Taylor Swift
Ben: No, Strait didn’t have the biggest year, but he’s still the only nominee whom I can truly endorse as the face of country music in 2014. At this point the Carrie Underwood snubs have ceased to surprise me.
Jonathan: If his fans’ votes were enough to give him the surprise win last year, there’s no reason to think Bryan won’t repeat, given that his profile only seems to have grown throughout 2013. All five of the nominees are equally sort-of deserving of a win based on relative metrics of commercial stats and quality of their output, while the most obvious, most deserving winner of this award was yet again left off the ballot.
Tara: Strait’s putting on a heck of a farewell tour, and I appreciate the CMA voters for recognizing that last year. I’m doubtful he’ll have that effect on the ACM voter demographic, though; this one’s Bryan’s to lose … but really, truly, belongs to Underwood.
Kevin: Strait’s victory at last year’s CMA Awards was the highlight of the night. But I agree with the consensus. Fan votes have this thing locked up for Bryan.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win
- Jason Aldean – TS
- Lee Brice
- Luke Bryan – KJC
- Blake Shelton
- Keith Urban
Will Win
- Jason Aldean
- Lee Brice
- Luke Bryan – KJC, TS, BF, JK
- Blake Shelton
- Keith Urban
Ben: Bryan seems to have had the biggest year, but I’m not personally invested in any of these choices.
Jonathan: I’d be more excited about seeing new blood in this line-up if I were in any way impressed with Brice. Just looking at mainstream stars who had hits during the eligibility period, a superior slate of nominees could be culled from Gary Allan, Dierks Bentley, Eric Church, Easton Corbin, Brad Paisley, Darius Rucker, and Chris Young.
Tara: I’ll be damned if Aldean hasn’t grown on me over the past few years. His material is still too uneven for me to get behind, but I’ve come to begrudgingly respect his appeal. My guess is his crown will go to Bryan, though.
Kevin: I like the fact that after the endless streak from Paisley, we’ve gotten different winners in the past two years. The only two who haven’t won yet are Brice and Bryan. The latter is the only one at the level to warrant a win at this time.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win
- Sheryl Crow
- Miranda Lambert
- Kacey Musgraves – KJC, BF
- Taylor Swift
- Carrie Underwood – TS
Will Win
- Sheryl Crow
- Miranda Lambert – TS, BF, JK
- Kacey Musgraves – KJC
- Taylor Swift
- Carrie Underwood
Ben: Lambert’s status as one of this year’s leading nominees indicates that voters still have the hots for her. Her reign will end eventually, but I won’t bet on it happening this time around.
Jonathan: Brandy Clark LeAnn Rimes Ashley Monroe Kellie Pickler Julie Roberts Holly Williams No? On the brightside, Crow managed to snag the fifth slot instead of either of Blake Shelton’s overpraised “The Voice” winners, but that’s really where the good news ends. It seems premature for Musgraves to win this award, and I’m honestly still not all that enamored of her beyond “Follow Your Arrow.” I’ve been pulling for Underwood of late, but both she and Swift ended this eligibility period with two of their worst singles, so I’d have reservations about seeing either of them win. Lambert seems poised to repeat based on her haul of nominations; as fun as “Mama’s Broken Heart” is, I’d feel better about this streak of hers had it spanned her far superior Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and Revolution eras.
Tara: I’m sticking with Underwood for one more cycle, mostly because Musgraves’ charming “Follow Your Arrow” didn’t really make its (relatively small) impact until after the eligibility period. It’s hard to swallow how many of these awards Lambert is racking up between the ACM’s and the CMA’s, but I suspect the trend will continue.
Kevin: Go big or go home. Musgraves is the ACM’s opportunity to definitively position itself as the more substantive country awards show, a status they’ve been flirting with as the CMA’s have moved in the opposite direction. I think she’ll pull it off, and I’ll be happy to see her do it.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win
- Big & Rich
- Dan + Shay
- Florida Georgia Line - KJC
- Love and Theft
- Thompson Square – TS, JK
Will Win
- Big & Rich
- Dan + Shay
- Florida Georgia Line – KJC, TS, BF, JK
- Love and Theft
- Thompson Square
Ben: This category remains lame and pointless as ever, but at least I can give credit for the fact that they finally stopped shoehorning in Sugarland.
Jonathan: Thompson Square is the only one of these five acts who released a single that I didn’t absolutely hate during the past year. While that’s an accomplishment of sorts, it’s hardly one that should keep this category from being combined with the Vocal Group race.
Tara: I don’t mind Thompson Square. That’s the best thing I can say about this line-up.
Kevin: I’m not really a fan of any of these acts, so again, I’ll root for variety. Thompson Square has two wins already. Florida Georgia Line had a great year. Give them their due, and then perhaps we can forget they ever happened.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win
- Eli Young Band
- Lady Antebellum
- Little Big Town – TS, JK
- The Band Perry
- Zac Brown Band – KJC
Will Win
- Eli Young Band
- Lady Antebellum
- Little Big Town
- The Band Perry – KJC, TS, JK, BJF
- Zac Brown Band
Jonathan: I couldn’t vote against Little Big Town during a year when they released “Sober,” but Zac Brown Band continues to release solid material and remains overdue for recognition. The Band Perry have a run of huge hit singles– the first two of which were as clever and progressive as anything country radio has touched in a minute– to their credit during the eligibility period. Momentum seems to be on their side at the moment, and I think they’ll score the night’s only real upset.
Tara: The Band Perry are walking a skillful line between commercial and creative, and I think they’ll be rewarded. As for me, I’m clinging to Little Big Town at least until the exquisite “Sober” becomes old news.
Kevin: I think that The Band Perry is best positioned to win, but Zac Brown Band is the most overdue.
Ben: I’m torn between picking The Band Perry for having had such a strong year, and picking Little Big Town for releasing one of my favorite singles of 2013. But despite Little Big Town’s recent hot streak, I expect The Band Perry’s commercial stats will net them their first win in this category.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win
- Brett Eldredge
- Justin Moore
- Kip Moore – KJC, TS, BF
Will Win
- Brett Eldredge
- Justin Moore – TS, JK, BF
- Kip Moore
Jonathan: Of these three, Justin Moore has been building his fanbase for the longest period of time, so it seems logical that he’ll win based on the fan vote.
Tara: I’ve been in Kip Moore’s corner for a few years now, but doubt he’ll take this. True story: Sometimes I think Justin Moore and Brice are the same person.
Album of the Year
Should Win
- Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story…
- Luke Bryan, Crash My Party
- Florida Georgia Line, Here’s to the Good Times
- Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – KJC, TS, BF, JK
- Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Will Win
- Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story… JK
- Luke Bryan, Crash My Party
- Florida Georgia Line, Here’s to the Good Times
- Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – TS, KJC, BF
- Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Ben: Musgraves is the only one deserving of a nomination, let alone a win.
Jonathan: 2013 was an extraordinary year for country music, and that is in no way reflected in this appalling slate of nominees. Musgraves’ album is the only one that belongs in any conversation about the best of contemporary country. But there seems to be some growing consensus that Shelton is owed something more than his own celebrity status, so he’s the most likely winner.
Tara: A part of me thinks the voters will ride the 2013 Musgraves fan train and use this as an opportunity to show some relevance. But that’s a gamble of a guess, considering the atrocious other nominees.
Kevin: They’ve been more supportive of good art in this category than the CMA’s lately, so I’m thinking Musgraves has this wrapped up, and the ACM will be the tiebreaker between the Grammys and the CMA’s.
Single Record of the Year
Should Win
- Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise”
- Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
- Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
- Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – KJC, BF, TS, JK
- Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
Will Win
- Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise” – TS, BF, JK
- Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – KJC
- Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
- Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
- Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
Jonathan: A case could be made for any of these five singles actually winning, but I’ll let my pessimism about the overall nominations carry the most weight here and say that “Cruise” will win. “Mama’s Broken Heart” is only Lambert’s fifth-or-sixth-best single, but it’s easily the class of this field.
Tara: “Cruise” is too big for the voters to ignore, and that’s both depressing and funny. I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Rucker or Brice singles won, but Lambert’s “Mama’s Broken Heart” is clearly a cut above the rest with its sharp songwriting and spitting, bullet of a performance.
Kevin: Love the Lambert track, but the star power of McGraw/Swift/Urban seems hard to deny.
Song of the Year
Should Win
- “Every Storm (Runs Out of Rain)” – Gary Allan, Hillary Lindsey, Matthew Warren
- “I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Jimmy Yeary
- “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves – KJC, TS, BF
- “Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Deric Ruttan
- “Wagon Wheel” – Bob Dylan, Ketch Secor – JK
Will Win
- “Every Storm (Runs Out of Rain)” – Gary Allan, Hillary Lindsey, Matthew Warren
- “I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Jimmy Yeary – TS, JK
- “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves – KJC, BF
- “Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Deric Ruttan
- “Wagon Wheel” – Bob Dylan, Ketch Secor
Jonathan: “Wagon Wheel” has become as close to a standard as any song in recent memory, and that generally doesn’t happen just by accident. This is one of the few times when Brandy Clark would be my second choice for a winner. The success of “I Drive Your Truck” propelled Brice to a surprising haul of nominations this year, though, and it’s clear that the song has resonated with a sizable bloc of voters.
Tara: This isn’t an awful line-up. I personally get the most kicks out of “Mama’s Broken Heart,” but I could make a case for all five songs, even the somewhat underrated “Mine Would Be You.” I have a gut feeling “I Drive Your Truck” will win on emotional heft, though.
Kevin: Perhaps it’s overly wishful thinking, but with “Merry Go Round” not in the running, voters have a clear path to rewarding both Musgraves and Clark, along with sending some more hardware Lambert’s way.
Video of the Year
Should Win
- The Band Perry, “Better Dig Two”
- Kacey Musgraves, “Blowin’ Smoke”
- Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
- Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
- Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
- Carrie Underwood, “Two Black Cadillacs” – KJC, TS, BF, JK
Will Win
- The Band Perry, “Better Dig Two”
- Kacey Musgraves, “Blowin’ Smoke”
- Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – BF
- Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
- Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – JK, TS
- Carrie Underwood, “Two Black Cadillacs” – KJC
Jonathan: The video for “Blowin’ Smoke” looks like a reel of B-roll footage from Rob Zombie’s The Devil’s Rejects, which was an interesting aesthetic choice but was still nowhere near as fun as the Christine homage in “Two Black Cadillacs.”
Tara: I dig the tongue-in-cheek realism of Musgraves’ video and the whimsy of Lambert’s, but Underwood makes the most unexpected, imaginative choice.
Kevin: They’ve got to give Underwood something, right? I’m not a huge fan of the video, really. The song is awfully suggestive, but doesn’t come right out and say that the two ladies killed the guy. So the video takes that opening and decides, “The car did it!” But at least it’s a video. The others are just YouTube fodder.
Vocal Event of the Year
Should Win
- Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies and Friends, “Boys ‘Round Here”
- Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly, “Cruise” (Remix)
- Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – KJC, JK, BF
- Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel” – TS
- Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert, “We Were Us
Will Win
- Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies and Friends, “Boys ‘Round Here”
- Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly, “Cruise” (Remix)
- Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – KJC, BF
- Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
- Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert, “We Were Us – TS, JK
Jonathan: Hillary Scott’s shrill attempts at singing harmony are the worst part of Rucker’s cover of “Wagon Wheel,” and hopefully the two hip-hop-circa-2003-inspired singles will split votes. “We Were Us” is the worst sounding track of the five– which is really saying something about how we’ve forever lost the Loudness War– but it seems like Lambert is going to have a big night.
Tara: I’ll go with “Wagon Wheel” by default, though its collaboration does it absolutely no favors, as Jonathan said. Even still, it’s far above these other middling to obnoxious (so loud!) singles.
Kevin: Fair warning. If Florida Georgia Line/Nelly win, I’m out. Done. No live blog for me after that!
