Billboard unveils new methodology today for the long-standing Hot Country Songs, Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs and Hot Latin Songs charts. Each receive a major consumer-influenced face-lift, as digital download sales (tracked by Nielsen SoundScan) and streaming data (tracked by Nielsen BDS from such services as Spotify, Muve, Slacker, Rhapsody, Rdio and Xbox Music, among others) will now be factored into the 50-position rankings, along with existing radio airplay data monitored by Nielsen BDS. The makeovers will enable these charts to match the methodology applied to Billboard’s signature all-genre songs ranking, the Billboard Hot 100.
On the surface, this seems like a good idea. After all, the country singles chart included both sales and airplay data for decades, until switching to airplay-only in 1989. Declining availability of retail singles made this change necessary.
Since the digital market emerged, I’ve been an advocate for bringing sales data back into the mix. There have been a few songs that were very popular with country audiences that radio didn’t embrace, like “I am a Man of Constant Sorrow”, “Hurt”, and “Not Ready to Make Nice”, but were mainstays on country video outlets and sold plenty of digital downloads alongside impressive album sales. The digital singles market also indicated the budding popularity of acts like Miranda Lambert and Eric Church, who have since become core radio acts.
So what’s the problem with the change? This:
The immediate beneficiaries of this week’s methodology change are Taylor Swift, Rihanna and Mumford & Sons.
Swift, who holds down the top two slots on Hot Country Songs with “We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together” and “Red.” Her new country radio single “Begin Again” jumps 37-10. The pop-crossover No. 1 title ranks at No. 36 on Country Airplay (but also gets points associated with its pop-crossover play) and No. 1 on Country Digital Songs, while “Red” is absent from the Country Airplay list, but ranks No. 2 on Country Digital Songs. “Begin Again” appears at No. 29 on Country Airplay and No. 3 on Country Digital Songs.
There are so many problems here. First, and probably worst, pop airplay is now counting for the country genre chart. This week’s “#1 country song” would’ve been #36 if the methodology hadn’t changed. A song that was most notable for being the first song that country radio refused to play by Taylor Swift, because it had no business being on country radio in the first place. It is not a country hit that crossed over to pop. It’s a pop hit that failed to cross over to country.
#2 isn’t even a country single. It’s an advance download track previewing Swift’s new album. It will drop like a stone next week, much like it will on the Hot 100, where it enters at #6. But the Hot 100′s breadth is able to absorb tracks like this more easily, and it is almost impossible to get that high without at least some radio support. The #2 country single of the week wasn’t played on country radio this week.
Billboard says it’s modeling the new genre charts after the Hot 100, much like the way the genre album charts mirror the Billboard 200:
The move to the Hot 100-based formula will ensure that the top-ranked country, R&B/hip-hop, Latin and rock titles each week will be the top titles listed on each genre’s songs ranking. This will be in line with how the Billboard 200 albums chart aligns with the albums charts for each corresponding genre. Because of the switch to new methodology, the week-to-week movements on the charts for some songs (in either direction) could be quite dramatic.
Until now, only country stations contributed to the Hot Country Songs chart, or R&B/hip-hop stations to Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs; the same held true for Latin and rock. The new methodology, which will utilize the Hot 100′s formula of incorporating airplay from more than 1,200 stations of all genres monitored by BDS, will reward crossover titles receiving airplay on a multitude of formats. With digital download sales and streaming data measuring popularity on the most inclusive scale possible, it is only just the radio portion of Billboard chart calculations that includes airplay from the entire spectrum of monitored formats.
Big mistake. Albums sales are album sales. If x sells more than y, it’s higher on the album chart. Apples to apples. Each genre singles chart has its own idiosyncrasies, reflecting the different ways that music is received by the audience.
Despite all the new methods of delivery, country music’s primary method of distribution remains the radio. It may be the only thing left that is identifiably “country” in mainstream music. The vast majority of country artists do not pursue the pop market in lieu of the country market. At most, they pursue pop as well as country, but usually wait until the song’s a hit at their home format first.
The big crossover hits of years past – “Need You Now”, “You’re Still the One”, “Before He Cheats” – would’ve done very well under this new format, but would likely have spent more time at #1 when they were dominating top forty radio and the song was already a recurrent at country stations. Instead, they went #1 on the country chart when country radio was playing them, then flew up the pop charts a few weeks later, while a new single was hitting the country market.
This new chart methodology is bad enough as it is now. But what will happen when the labels realize the only way to have a #1 country hit is to get your song to be a pop hit, too?
There are so many other problems with this, including the increased challenges of breaking new country acts and the likelihood that digital single releases will now become more strategic than ever. (Remixes! Acoustic versions! Buy them separately so they each count as their own sale!)
I guess I just don’t see the point of having a country chart at all if it isn’t going to measure just the country market.
The list of nominees for the 46th annual Country Music Association Awards has been released. Eric Church had a big breakthrough this past year, and such is reflected in the nominee list – Church leads the pack with five nominations. Power couple Blake Shelton and Miranda Lambert follow with four each, including a shared Song of the Year nod for their co-write “Over You.”
What’s your take on this year’s field of CMA nominees? Whose nominations were deserved, and whose were not? Who got snubbed? Share your thoughts in the comments section.
The live presentation airs Thursday, November 1 at 8pm Eastern on ABC-TV. The Country Universe Staff Picks & Predictions will be released the week of the show. Feel free to join us on show night for some live-blogging fun!
Entertainer of the Year
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift
Who’s in: Kenny Chesney
Who’s out: Keith Urban
No real surprises here. This year we swapped out Urban for Chesney, but all of these nominees have been here at least once before.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Who’s in: Kelly Clarkson
Who’s out: Sara Evans
Well, I was hoping for some new blood in this category, and that’s definitely what I got. Pop crossover star Kelly Clarkson scores her first nomination in the Female Vocalist field, displacing Sara Evans. There will likely be some amount of upset over Clarkson receiving such an accolade, as she had one #21-peaking country hit in the past year with “Mr. Know It All,” but has yet to release a full-length country album. And…that makes her one of the top five leading female vocalists in the country format? Okay…
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Who’s in: Luke Bryan, Eric Church
Who’s out: Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley
Bryan and Church’s recent career strides are rewarded with their first nominations in the always-competitive Male Vocalist race.
Vocal Group of the Year
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Zac Brown Band
Who’s in: Eli Young Band
Who’s out: Rascal Flatts (!!!)
Eli Young Band scores a pair of huge radio hits, and thus squeezes out a former staple of the Vocal Group race.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Big & Rich
Love and Theft
Sugarland
The Civil Wars
Thompson Square
Who’s in: Big & Rich, Love and Theft
Who’s out: Montgomery Gentry, Steel Magnolia
New Artist of the Year
Lee Brice
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Who’s in: Lee Brice, Brantley Gilbert, Hunter Hayes, Love and Theft
Who’s out: The Band Perry (won), Luke Bryan, Eric Church, Chris Young (So, everyone except Thompson Square)
Album of the Year (Awarded to artist and producer)
Luke Bryan, Tailgates and Tanlines Produced by Jeff Stevens and Mark Bright
Eric Church, Chief Produced by Jay Joyce
Miranda Lambert, Four the Record Produced by Frank Liddell, Chuck Ainlay, and Glenn Worf
Dierks Bentley, Home Produced by Brett Beavers, Luke Wooten, and Jon Randall Stewart
Lady Antebellum, Own the Night Produced by Paul Worley and Lady Antebellum
Song of the Year (Awarded to songwriters)
Eli Young Band, “Even if It Breaks Your Heart”
Written by Will Hoge and Eric Paslay
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Written by Dave Barnes
Dierks Bentley, “Home”
Written by Dierks Bentley, Dan Wilson and Brett Beavers
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Written by Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Written by Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell
Single of the Year (Awarded to artist and producer)
Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem”
Produced by Michael Knox
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Produced by Scott Hendricks
Dierks Bentley, “Home”
Produced by Brett Beavers and Luke Wooten
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Produced by Jay Joyce
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Produced by Jay Joyce
Musical Event of the Year
Alan Jackson and Zac Brown Band, ”Dixie Highway”
Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw, ”Feel Like a Rock Star”
Willie Nelson featuring Snoop Dogg, Kris Kristofferson and Jamey Johnson, ”Roll Me Up and Smoke Me When I Die”
Taylor Swift featuring the Civil Wars, ”Safe and Sound”
Lionel Richie and Darius Rucker, ”Stuck on You”
Music Video of the Year (Awarded to artist and director)
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Directed by Peter Zavadil
Kenny Chesney, “Come Over”
Directed by Shaun Silva
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Directed by Trey Fanjoy
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Directed by Declan Whitebloom
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Directed by Michael Salomon
Musician of the Year
Sam Bush
Paul Franklin
Dann Huff
Brent Mason
Mac McAnally
With all the righteous indignation regarding the lackluster performance of “So You Don’t Have to Love Me Anymore” at radio, it’s easy to forget that country radio once played the bad Alan Jackson singles just as much as the great ones.
Case in point: “I Don’t Even Know Your Name” was a #1 single.
Perhaps that’s a little unfair. The song is somewhat clever, and it was apparently memorable enough that Carrie Underwood rewrote it a decade later. I think I’d like it a lot more if it was missing the final verse, much like the waitress was missing her front tooth.
But it’s that kind of forced humor that makes me wince every time Brad Paisley tries to be funny. Jackson pulls it off better than most, but it’s just not my cup of tea. Love the instrumentation, though.
Written by Alan Jackson, Ron Jackson, and Andy Lofton
Since bringing back Recommend a Track proved so popular, I’m resurrecting another CU oldie but goodie: the iPod check.
I’ve only recently discovered the Most Played feature on iTunes, since it never had any relevance until iPods were large enough in memory to sync all of my music. So going back to early 2011, I have a lengthy list of the songs I’ve played the most.
So today’s iP0d check: List your most-played song from twenty different country artists.
You can access this info by going to your own Most Played list and adjusting the number of songs on it – I use 500 for mine – or you can just go to Music and sort by number of plays. Or you can just pick twenty artists at random and list your most played song for each. We’re easy here. (This would also work in Spotify, from what I hear.)
Here’s my top twenty:
Pam Tillis – Deep Down (89 plays)
Keith Urban – I Told You So (81)
Dixie Chicks – Long Time Gone (71)
Taylor Swift – Mean (68)
Trisha Yearwood – Where Are You Now (63)
Patty Loveless – You Can Feel Bad (59)
Emmylou Harris – Easy From Now On (55)
Carrie Underwood – Undo It (50)
Lori McKenna – Lorraine (50)
Dwight Yoakam – Ain’t That Lonely Yet (46)
Sara Evans – Rocking Horse (45)
Sawyer Brown – Cafe on the Corner (45)
Reba McEntire – The Fear of Being Alone (44)
Shania Twain – Up! (43)
Faith Hill – Stealing Kisses (41)
Alan Jackson – So You Don’t Have to Love Me Anymore (40)
Crystal Gayle – Why Have Your Left the One You Left Me For (39)
George Strait – Meanwhile (39)
Lee Ann Womack – I May Hate Myself in the Morning (39)
Aaron Tippin – Whole Lotta Love on the Line (38)
I’m surprised that some of my most played artists overall, like Dolly Parton, Randy Travis, and Tim McGraw, don’t have that one big song that I play excessively. Also, at least half of the songs above aren’t what I would call my favorite song by the given artist. How about you?
Today, I’m bringing back an old Country Universe favorite: Recommend a Track.
We all like to play armchair record executive. So I’m asking readers to share what they think should be the next single from a current country album.
My Pick: Carrie Underwood, “Do You Think About Me”
The first two singles from Blown Away have been dramatic affairs, where the production is as much the star as the vocalist. I’ve found both “Good Girl” and “Blown Away” to be very compelling singles, but I’m jonesing for a simpler showcase of Underwood’s incomparable vocals.
“Do You Think About Me” is thematically similar to “Strawberry Wine”, but it’s heavier on nostalgia for the actual relationship and is refreshingly indifferent to any innocence lost. It’s a crisply produced record that allows the melody to remain front and center. It’s one of those records that makes me smile every time I hear it.
What do you think should be the next single sent to radio from a current country album?
t/uploads/2012/07/Carrie-Underwood-Blown-Away-Single-150×150.png” alt=”" width=”150″ height=”150″ />Four albums into her career, Carrie Underwood’s career growth has been fairly stunning.
It’s hard to imagine that the talent-show winner who sang “Jesus Take the Wheel” would morph into a fully fledged pop superstar with speaker-rattling pop-rock songs like “Good Girl” and “Blown Away.”
While the evolution has been fascinating to watch, the problem is that someone who was thought of as the next female country superstar has effectively left country music behind and moved on to bigger things, and it’s a loss for the genre.
“Blown Away,” Underwood’s new single, has some of the most interesting lyrics she’s had to work with in some time, courtesy of writers Josh Kear and Chris Tompkins. It borrows a little from the Miranda Lambert songbook, where an abusive father is made to account for his sins with death by tornado. While it’s a bit more passive than a Lambert song (she would have shot the SOB a few times before letting the twister carry him away), there is a satisfying sense of Old Testament-style vengeance to it.
Many of the main story elements are absent – the age of the narrator, exactly what the father did that was so awful – but there’s still plenty create some vivid imagery. Much like Martina McBride’s “Independence Day” never reveals the actual fate of the mother, “Blown Away” lets listeners fill in their own details.
As noted though, this is not being sung by Carrie Underwood, Country Singer. Instead, this is Carrie Underwood, International Pop Diva, and the song is glitzed up and glossed over to make it pop radio-ready. It’s been so thoroughly produced and sanitized that there isn’t a trace of a country song left in “Blown Away.” There have been “country” remixes of Kelly Clarkson singles that sound more traditional than this one.
The frustrating thing is that the gloss is so uncalled for. The altered vocals, the bombastic instrumentation, those things just take away from the vocals. It’s all well and good if the singer is Katy Perry or Ke$ha, as they need all the help they can get. But Carrie Underwood? Aside from a few impressive and effortless high notes that serve as a reminder of her capabilities, her vocal abilities are effectively buried.
Pop music today is very restrictive – possibly more so than country music – and a certain type of sound is needed to get significant airplay. So if the idea behind the song was to make Underwood sound like every other pop singer out there, then it’s a success. The downside, though, is that everything that made her special in the first place is getting lost in the process.
Lauren Alaina’s “American Idol” legacy can be summed up in one phrase: failure to meet potential. The Season 10 runner-up kicked off her “Idol”run with a fiery display of vocal talent, but she was never able to match that confidence or sense of identity in subsequent live performances. Worse yet, her “Idol” catalogue stood in stark contrast to that of winner and fellow country artist Scotty McCreery, whose best strength was his firm grasp of self.
It’s surprising, then, that Alaina’s debut album Wildflower is one of the most authentic post- “Idol” country albums to date – a collection of tasteful, age-appropriate pop-country songs, “Georgia Peaches” withstanding. Her current single is topped only by one album gem that’s unlikely to see the light of radio.
“Eighteen Inches” treads no new ground for country music: Teenage lovers defy their parents, jet out of town and create a life of their own that includes a new baby. But its hook sums up the root of this familiar story better than most: “There ain’t no greater distance than the 18 inches from your head to your heart” is a keen description of the power of love. Thanks to an evocative melody, this sentiment –and Alaina’s performance– soars.
Alaina is a naturally gifted vocalist, possessing a voice that can tell a story simply through its shades and intricacies, much like that of “Eighteen Inches” co-writer Carrie Underwood. It’s a testament to this skill that she’s able to flip the Martina McBride-style power ballad into one with undertones of gritty teenage emotion. She approaches the song with youthful poise, but injects it with just enough teenage angst to crack the gloss of the pop-country arrangement.
Written by Ashley Gorley, Kelley Lovelace and Carrie Underwood
Does country radio still have room for a song about drinkin’ and cheatin’? How about one sung by a female artist?
Enter Arista newcomer Kristen Kelly, currently making waves at radio with her debut single “Ex-Old Man,” which she co-wrote along with nineties star Paul Overstreet. The premise is simple. Husband cheats on her with her best friend. She calls it quits with her man, and hits the bar, assuring us in no uncertain terms that “There’s a damn good reason for this drink in my hand.” The lyric and performance are brash and bitter with an undercurrent of vulnerability as Kelly fumes over the double betrayal. (“I was cryin’ on her shoulder, he was cheatin’ on me… She never let on that it was her stealin’ his love”)
In a country radio environment where there are far too many bells and whistles, it’s a refreshing change of pace to hear a new artist taking a back-to-basics approach – revisiting a classic yet often ignored country music theme, with a simple drum and acoustic guitar-driven arrangement that actually makes the song feel like country music (Overstreet and Tony Brown take producer’s credit). At the same time, the jaunty acoustic chords and hand claps are subtly infectious, setting the toe tapping in short order.
It’s encouraging to see that this single seems to be getting some attention at radio. If Kelly’s lyrical material remains strong, she along with fellow rising talent Jana Kramer could potentially act as an effective counterbalance toward the polished, hook-heavy country-pop of Swift and Underwood and company, imbuing some welcome variety into country radio’s pool of female talent.
At this point, it’s easy to forget that Carrie Underwood first kicked off her country music career as an American Idol graduate. Besides being one of country music’s most technically gifted female vocalists, she’s gone on to become one of its strongest commercial forces, with a seven-year-long string of Top-2 hit singles, not to mention albums that consistently sell like hotcakes. But a noteworthy gap has often been seen between the impressiveness of Underwood’s talent and success and the quality of her material. In terms of lyrics and production, at least, Underwood’s new album Blown Away finds her taking steps forward that are small, but steps forward nonetheless.
As hinted at by the gloomy cover image, Underwood’s fourth album finds her taking on some notably darker, more serious song material than on her previous albums. After leading off with the wildly catchy Shania Twain-esque debut single “Good Girl,” the album quickly takes a turn for deadly serious territory. The title track tells of a young woman taking revenge on her abusive alcoholic father by hiding in the cellar when a tornado approaches their home, letting the house collapse on top of her father while he lies passed out on the floor. Though it doesn’t quite reach the spine-tingling heights of Martina McBride’s similarly themed ”Independence Day,” “Blown Away” is one of the most interesting and complex songs here, and though it could do without the gaudy vocal reverb effects, the arrangement lends the track an appropriately eerie feel. As “Two Black Cadillacs” begins with a funeral scene, the listener is quickly pulled into the tale of two black veil-wearing women who share a dark secret. The omission of some narrative details toward the end lessens the ultimate listener payoff, but “Two Black Cadillacs” likewise remains one of the album’s more striking and memorable cuts. Indeed, Underwood is to be applauded for putting for the attempt to tackle more challenging lyrical material, as opposed to the predictable fare that tended to weigh down her previous releases.
Similarly, though the album often settles for the same pop-country sound that Underwood and producer Mark Bright have long favored, here there are several tweaks to the usual formula. The prominent mandolin line on “Leave Love Alone” sounds different that anything Underwood has previously recorded, while the signature Brad Paisley guitar-shredding on “Cupid’s Got a Shotgun” turns an already fun song into a regular jam session. The surprisingly sparse, primarily acoustic number “Do You Think About Me” benefits from added restraint both in production and vocal, which is effective in delivering the wistful-lyric. These production choices don’t necessarily reinvent the wheel, while some – such as the reggae flavorings of “One Way Ticket,” for example – may prove polarizing, but they are unexpected coming from Underwood. Such willingness on the parts of Underwood and Bright to go for the occasional risk is refreshing.
Weighing in at a generous fourteen tracks, the album could have benefited from leaving off a few of its more forgettable cuts, and perhaps being condensed into a more consistently solid ten- or twelve-track collection instead. Blown Away suffers most when it veers off into a shallow, feel-good thematic direction, which is particularly evident on the trite self-esteem booster “Nobody Ever Told You,” as well as the beachy Chesney-esque reggae of “One Way Ticket” – the latter an obvious candidate for a summertime single release, with a music video that practically creates itself. That’s not to say that such lyrical concepts are necessarily taboo, but these particular efforts lack the personality and strong hooks that are needed to make such efforts memorable. The fact that power ballad “See You Again” was originally intended for The Chronicles of Narnia soundtrack is telling, as the vague, platitudinous lyric savors strongly of disposable soundtrack fare. Cliché-laden album closer “Who Are You,” a surprising misfire of a composition from Shania Twain’s ex-husband/ ex-producer/ ex-songwriting-collaborator Robert John “Mutt” Lange,” is just a total bore.
That said, Underwood can be remarkably successful when she puts forth the earnest attempt to connect with her listeners on a relatable emotional level. Though the title of “Thank God for Hometowns” raises a red flag, we are treated to a fully three-dimensional portrayal of the very best aspects of small-town living (“Small Town U.S.A.” it isn’t, thankfully), including the small-town camaraderie of close neighbors and friends, while the conversational tone lends both a personal feel and a welcome sense of structure to the lyric. The two finest tracks are “Good In Goodbye” and “Wine After Whiskey,” both ranking among Underwood’s strongest co-writes to date. The former displays a level of maturity and clear-eyed insight as Underwood reflects on a difficult breakup that has turned out to be a blessing in disguise. The latter utilizes an effective metaphor of drinking wine after whiskey to illustrate how the narrator’s current lover pales in comparison to the one she lost. Better still, Underwood displays notable growth as a lyrical interpreter on both of these songs, wisely sparing us the power notes, while adding to the emotional impact through her nuance and subtlety.
Though it’s not quite a wholly consistent project, and it does have its share of weak spots, Blown Away is an album that is brilliant at best, and bland at worst. But what makes Blown Away a fascinating and ultimately satisfying collection is that it displays an artist willing to continually grow and challenge herself by experimenting with different sounds, musical styles, and lyrical themes. In today’s music industry, it’s all too easy for an established superstar to settle for predictable, wheels-spinning material that furthers his or her primary marketing persona without moving forward artistically in any meaningful way. Granted, Underwood’s attempts at branching out still result in occasional missteps, several of which are documented on this album. Still, to see such a demonstration of a “What’s next?” artistic muse, particularly from a woman who can already out-sing most of her peers from the corner of her mouth, is an absolute joy to hear. Here’s hoping her future efforts achieve greater consistency along to go along with her ambition.
Throw on your bedazzled boots – the 47th annual Academy of Country Music Awards air live from Las Vegas this Sunday at 8 p.m. EST. The show promises to be a melting pot of performances, with oddball duets like Rascal Flatts and Steve Martin - and no, that’s not an April Fools joke. The CU staff picked and predicted the awards below. Tell us your thoughts, and check back for our live blog on Sunday night!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Dan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Ben, Sam
Will Win:
Jason Aldean – Sam
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Dan, Tara, Kevin, Ben
Ben: Okay, so I was going to go with Aldean based on his massive success… but Swift’s music has just been too dang good lately.
Jonathan: Swift is the only one of the five who has released any music I really liked during the eligibility period; that fan voting is part of whatever mysterious algorithm is used to determine the winner of this award helps her case. I recognize that Aldean has a good look at this, too, but I’ll admit to just digging my heels in and refusing to get on board with the idea that he’s considered the standard-bearing artist in country music.
Tara: Swift released some of the best material of her career in the eligibility period, and her star seems as bright as it’s ever been. And while I can’t picture her losing something fan-voted, I wouldn’t be shocked if Aldean snuck up on her, especially given the secret fan / academy vote ratio. I just hope that this time next year, there are a few shake-ups in this category. I’m bored.
Dan: I like Swift the best, but can’t muster the energy to root actively against Aldean like I did with, say, Rascal Flatts.
Kevin: Aldean vs. Swift, with me erring on the side of the one who made more music that I liked this year.
Sam: Just a hunch, but the Taylor Swift voters might be as fanatical as usual because Carrie Underwood isn’t nominated for this award. That might give Aldean the chance to sneak in.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Kevin, Sam
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Chris Young – Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Will Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Sam
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton – Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Chris Young
Dan: Aldean remains the hottest guy out there by a huge margin, and occasionally puts out something decent like “Fly Over States.” I’ll just keep picking him to win this until he does. La la la.
Ben: Aldean’s success speaks for itself, but I would really like to see Chris Young take this. He released a solid new album, remained a consistent hitmaker at radio, and has made the most music that I’ve actually cared about. But seeing as the industry award voters have been showing a lot of excessive Shelton love as of late, my gut says that Blake Shelton is going to get this. (There are no awards for TV Judge of the Year or Newlywed of the Year, so the ACM will probably give him this one instead)
Jonathan: So let’s talk about Chris Young for a minute. The guy has a fantastic voice, one of the strongest and most distinctive instruments to come down Music Row in a minute, and that alone is enough to elevate him above most of the other men who have scored major airplay in the past couple of years. But the discrepancy between the quality of Young’s vocal performances and the quality of the songs he’s performing is a problem, and here’s yet another instance of an artist with the potential to be really and truly great receiving a thumbs-up from the industry for work that’s just occasionally on the better side of okay. Where’s the incentive for someone like Young to be even better if he’s being recognized now? And what does it say that, despite his wildly uneven material, he’s far and away the class of this particular field of nominees?
Tara: I have to disagree with Jonathan on this one; I find Neon to be a refreshing, neo-traditional gem, more organic than it is uneven. In this stage of Young’s career, I view his body of work as a stepping stone and an indication of potential, and I have no issue with it being rewarded. But it won’t be; Mr. Lambert’s got the entertainment industry on lockdown. And I can’t say I really mind.
Kevin: Picking Aldean as the “should win” solely because he had the biggest year, though I suspect Shelton will win anyway.
Sam: I get the love for Miranda Lambert, but the Blake Shelton love is largely lost on me. Not a fan of Aldean either, but he’s due for this award.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Sara Evans
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Ben, Tara, Leeann, Sam
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Kevin
Carrie Underwood
Will Win:
Sara Evans
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Sam
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift – Kevin
Carrie Underwood
Dan: I think Swift has been the strongest solo act this past year, but Lambert released a decent fourth album and a terrific group one. With no place on the ballot to reward Pistol Annies (fix that, CMAs?), this’ll do.
Ben: Swift put out a string of very good singles, but… Four the Record + Pistol Annies = The Miranda Lambert love will be fully justified.
Jonathan: If we’re counting Pistol Annies, then I can absolutely see the case for Lambert and could be convinced to vote accordingly, and I think she still has the momentum to win here. If we’re just looking at solo material, though, I’m unapologetically sticking with Swift’s “Mean” and “Sparks Fly,” which trump anything that the other four women in the category released during the eligibility period. With Underwood having a new album to support and, hopefully, Kellie Pickler getting the recognition she deserves for her latest work, this category should be a hell of a lot more interesting and competitive come CMA time.
Tara: Swift delivered the better material, but Lambert delivered the better performances, Hell On Heels notwithstanding. By my definition of FVOTY, this should go to Lambert. (And I’m stoked for the fall award season, too.)
Leeann: I have no real reason to believe that the Academy would take this from Lambert this year.
Kevin: Can you believe that Swift is the only nominee who hasn’t won this yet? I know Lambert should be the favorite, especially given the ACM’s fondness for her. But I can’t shake the feeling that she’s lost some momentum with her latest project.
Sam: Miranda will continue to own this category until someone like Carrie Underwood steps up with a new album.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win
Love and Theft
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland – Leeann
Thompson Square – Dan, Ben, Tara
Will Win:
Love and Theft
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Kevin
Thompson Square – Jonathan, Tara, Sam
Ben: The Civil Wars are really the only duo I’ve cared about this past year, but they have been stupidly excluded in favor of Love and Theft (who only released one mediocre single in the past year), so I’m going with Thompson Square instead. They’ve been doing well at radio, and their music has not been terribly grating, but I’m pretty sure that the ACM will remain stuck on Sugarland.
Dan: With The Civil Wars absent from ACM’s roster and Sugarland having a messy year across the board, Thompson Square seems like the last band standing. And they’re cute, right?
Jonathan: The song remains the same: This category should’ve been merged with Vocal Group of the Year eons ago to trim the fat. Given that the ACMs are still ostensibly more radio-oriented than the CMAs and that Sugarland have actively alienated radio with the god-awful singles from their god-awful album, I’m going to say that Thompson Square pull off the upset here. Just don’t ask me to hum or even to name more than one of their songs…
Tara: I honestly can’t muster an opinion. What’s Sugarland been up to these days, anyway?
Leeann: This category isn’t even worth comment this year.
Kevin: Saying somebody should win implies that I think there’s a worthy winner, so I’m just going to say that Sugarland will win.
Sam: No Bellamy Brothers nod? You mean country music actually had five legit nominees for a Duo award this year? Artistically, The Civil Wars and Foster & Lloyd would be the most deserving this year.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Will Win:
The Band Perry – Sam
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band
Ben: I’ve tried to hold out hope that the award industries would lay off the ridiculous Lady A adoration, but the CMAs and Grammys have shown me otherwise.
Jonathan: No reason to think the ACMs will break the trend of giving unearned trophies to the C students in the class.
Tara: I remain firmly in ZBB’s corner; the band produced my favorite single of 2011. But I would much, much prefer this award to go to the flavor of the month Eli Young Band than the flavor of the year Lady Antebellum.
Dan: I miss Little Big Town, but this is the first time in recent memory that this category has had five competitive groups. Like Aldean in the Male Vocalist race, Zac Brown Band sell as well as anyone and haven’t won yet, so I’ll probably keep picking them until they do, too. La la la x2.
Leeann: I’d love to see Zac Brown Band take it this year, but I don’t have enough faith that Lady A won’t just keep the award.
Kevin: Always gonna root for ZBB. Just losing hope that they’ll ever actually win.
Sam: ZBB is operating on a higher level than any other vocal group, but I’m alright with The Band Perry’s quirkiness getting some recognition.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes – Dan, Tara
Scotty McCreery
Will Win:
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes
Scotty McCreery – Ben, Dan, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Dan: Of the three, I think Hayes has the most raw talent (played every instrument on his album!) and could one day be an interesting artist. So, vote of optimism! ;D
Ben: I think this will be between Gilbert and McCreery. My gut says Scotty McCreery “will” win, but this line-up is just too depressing for me to make a case for who “should” win. Dan makes a good point about Hunter Hayes though…
Jonathan: I can’t.
Tara: Uh…I guess this is as good a time as any to confess my love for “Storm Warning.”
Leeann: I don’t even have the heart to choose who I think should win, but I’m guessing the “American Idol” winner will win.
Kevin: New Coke >>>> New Artist of the Year.
Sam: This is fan voted, right? Well, if McCreery’s fans can vote him to win “American Idol”…
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Eric Church, Chief – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin
Miranda Lambert, Four The Record – Sam
Kenny Chesney, Hemingway’s Whiskey
Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party
Lady Antebellum, Own The Night
Will Win:
Eric Church, Chief
Miranda Lambert, Four The Record
Kenny Chesney, Hemingway’s Whiskey
Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party – Dan, Ben, Sam
Lady Antebellum, Own The Night – Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin
Ben: Eric Church edges out Miranda as my pick, but I’m fairly sure this will go to Aldean, and I refuse to predict that Lady Antebellum will win this.
Jonathan: I liked Lambert’s album exponentially less each time I listened to it, so I stopped listening to all but two of its tracks (“Fine Tune” and “Dear Diamond”) months ago to preserve at least some degree of fondness for it. Church’s album has some significant limitations of its own, but, song-for-song, it’s the strongest set in this line-up. I have no idea what I would ever actually say to a person who believes that Richard Marx’s Repeat Offender Amy Grant’s House of Love Lady Antebellum’s Own the Night scans as a country album in any substantive way, or that it’s the best country album of this or any year. But clearly there are people who do believe that, and recent history says there are enough of them for Lady A to win this.
Tara: It’s a toss up between Lambert and Church for me, with Church’s realized hard-assness giving Chief a slight edge. But it’s Lady A’s to lose – and I’m not sure anything in the industry has frustrated me more than their wins as of late. It’s worse than laughably unfair; it’s potential-threatening. And it has to stop.
Dan: When Church is bad, he’s cringe-worthy. When he’s good, he kicks most of the ass he told you he’d kick.
Leeann: I won’t be surprised if Lady A wins, but I’d love to see Eric Church win for the most interesting album of the bunch. I wouldn’t mind seeing Miranda Lambert win either.
Kevin: I just hope I’m wrong a lot this year.
Sam: Pretty sad when a “good for a Jason Aldean album” album beats out two superior albums from Church and Lambert, but I think that will be the case.
Single Record of the Year
Should Win:
Eli Young Band, “Crazy Girl”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay”
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Chris Young, “Tomorrow”
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila” – Ben, Dan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Will Win:
Eli Young Band, “Crazy Girl”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Chris Young, “Tomorrow”
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Ben: “Tequila” outclasses most of the field, though “Tomorrow” is also a solid contender. I get the novelty value of “Red Solo Cup,” but Single Record of the Year? Nah…
Jonathan: Even for a novelty song, I thought “Red Solo Cup” was poorly constructed and lazily written, but I kind of hope it wins, if only to prove that this year’s ACMs are just a straight-up farce.
Tara: I don’t love any of these, but “You and Tequila” is the only one I can imagine holding up in ten years.
Dan: Whatever.
Leeann: I can’t even believe “Red Solo Cup” is a contender! I’d love to see Kenny win for one of his best recordings, though I suspect Jason Aldean and Kelly Clarkson will win due to their cross genre appeal and all.
Kevin: Please let me be wrong a lot this year.
Sam: I will be rooting for “Red Solo Cup” and its inspired idiocy, but this could be part of Jason Aldean’s big night at the ACM.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“Crazy Girl” – Lee Brice & Liz Rose
“Home” – Brett Beavers, Dierks Bentley & Dan Wilson – Leeann
“Just a Kiss” – Dallas Davidson, Dave Haywood, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
“Threaten Me With Heaven” – Amy Grant, Vince Gill, Dillon O’Brian & Will Owsley – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
“You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter – Dan, Ben, Sam
Will Win:
“Crazy Girl” – Lee Brice & Liz Rose
“Home” – Brett Beavers, Dierks Bentley & Dan Wilson – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Sam
“Just a Kiss” – Dallas Davidson, Dave Haywood, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott – Kevin
“Threaten Me With Heaven” – Amy Grant, Vince Gill, Dillon O’Brian & Will Owsley
“You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter – Leeann
Dan: “Home” has felt like awards bait to me since I first heard it. Me, I’m a “Tequila” guy.
Ben: Ditto to Dan.
Jonathan: As much as I’d like to see Berg and Carter pick up some new hardware, I’d still give the edge to Gill’s song. When “Home” does win, which I agree it will, I’ll just pretend it means that Jason Isbell has finally won a major industry award.
Tara: “Threaten Me With Heaven” is gorgeously written, but I won’t mind if (and when) “Home” takes the award. Country music could use a shot of graceful patriotism.
Leeann: I’m pleased to have three songs that I’d be happy to see win the award this year. I feel like either Chesney or Bentley will rightfully win…I hope so at least.
Kevin: Pretty please?
Video of the Year
Should Win:
Eric Church, “Homeboy”
Lady Antebellum, “Just a Kiss”
Taylor Swift, “Mean” – Ben, Dan, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin, Sam
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Jason Aldean, “Tattoos On This Town”
Will Win:
Eric Church, “Homeboy”
Lady Antebellum, “Just a Kiss”
Taylor Swift, “Mean” – Kevin
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup” – Ben, Dan, Jonathan, Tara, Sam
Jason Aldean, “Tattoos On This Town”
Ben: I could actually live with “Red Solo Cup” winning this, but I still enjoy “Mean” quite a bit more. Plus I kind of hate Lady Antebellum’s video for being nothing more than a glorified iPad commercial. I also think “Mean” deserved a nomination for Single Record of the Year, so I would like to see it acknowledged here. Still, I don’t think I can bet against “Red Solo Cup.”
Jonathan: That “Mean” didn’t score the Single and Song of the Year nominations with the ACMs that it has elsewhere seems revealing, with “Red Solo Cup” as the most likely beneficiary. I just hope that the faux gravitas of the “Homeboy” clip doesn’t give it any footing.
Tara: I’m equally disappointed that “Mean” didn’t snag a nomination for Single or Song of the Year. With the video almost as freshly produced as the single, it’s an easy one to root for in this category. I have no inkling as to who will win, but I’ll piggyback off of my co-bloggers on the frat party anthem.
Dan: I could do without how the “Mean” clip ends with a little girl idolizing Taylor Swift, but am I gonna vote against the country music video that had the anti-gay-bullying message? No, I’m not.
Kevin: I think the Swift clip has enough pizazz to triumph in the end over Toby’s YouTube video.
Vocal Event of the Year
Should Win:
Aaron Lewis featuring George Jones & Charlie Daniels, “Country Boy”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay”
Brad Paisley featuring Alabama, “Old Alabama”
Brad Paisley duet with Carrie Underwood, “Remind Me” – Tara, Kevin, Ben
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila” – Dan, Jonathan, Leeann, Sam
Will Win:
Aaron Lewis featuring George Jones & Charlie Daniels, “Country Boy”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay” – Jonathan, Dan, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Brad Paisley featuring Alabama, “Old Alabama”
Brad Paisley duet with Carrie Underwood, “Remind Me” – Tara, Ben
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Jonathan: The Lewis track is one of the worst singles of the past five years or more, and its nomination is an indication of how deeply modern country music hates the actual traditions and values of the genre.
Tara: As middle-of-the-road as it is, something in the melody of “Remind Me” intrigues me. And I have a random feeling the voters will use this category to reward their dethroned male and female vocalists of the year.
Dan: It’ll be interesting to see if “Remind Me” can unseat “Don’t You Wanna St– oh, who am I kidding. Nothing is interesting anymore.
Leeann: Ugh. I pretty much know that Jason Aldean and Kelly Clarkson will win, but I’d love to be wrong. Meanwhile, I continue to faithfully root for the Chesney/Potter collaboration.
Kevin: I like my Vocal Events to be full-out Vocal Events, so I’m going for Paisley/Underwood over Chesney with backing vocals from Potter. The latter pair made the better record, though.
Ben: I’m with Tara and Kevin. “You and Tequila” is the best record overall, but that has more to do with Berg and Carter’s songwriting than with Potter’s contributions. “Remind Me” is the one that feels like an actual event.
Sam: Aldean & Clarkson outscreamed Paisley & Underwood, so they lay claim to the trophy. Chesney and Potter, what were you two thinking by just going out there and singing? Next time, I want to hear some wailing and primal screams, because that’s what makes for a successful duet these days.
The list of nominees for the 46th annual Country Music Association Awards has been released. Eric Church had a big breakthrough this past year, and such is reflected in the nominee list – Church leads the pack with five nominations. Power couple Blake Shelton and Miranda Lambert follow with four each, including a shared Song of the Year nod for their co-write “Over You.”
1995 | Peak: #1
Since bringing back Recommend a Track proved so popular, I’m resurrecting another CU oldie but goodie: the iPod check.
Today, I’m bringing back an old Country Universe favorite: Recommend a Track.
Carrie Underwood
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