And they’re back: The 2014 ACM Awards air live on Sunday at 7 p.m. CST, hosted by Blake Shelton and Luke Bryan. They’re sure to be enraging or amusing, depending on your bro-country meter. In the meantime, we’ve picked and predicted the awards below – chime in with your thoughts!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win
Luke Bryan
Miranda Lambert
Blake Shelton
George Strait - KJC, TS, BF
Taylor Swift
Will Win
Luke Bryan - KJC, TS, BF, JK
Miranda Lambert
Blake Shelton
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Ben: No, Strait didn’t have the biggest year, but he’s still the only nominee whom I can truly endorse as the face of country music in 2014. At this point the Carrie Underwood snubs have ceased to surprise me.
Jonathan: If his fans’ votes were enough to give him the surprise win last year, there’s no reason to think Bryan won’t repeat, given that his profile only seems to have grown throughout 2013. All five of the nominees are equally sort-of deserving of a win based on relative metrics of commercial stats and quality of their output, while the most obvious, most deserving winner of this award was yet again left off the ballot.
Tara: Strait’s putting on a heck of a farewell tour, and I appreciate the CMA voters for recognizing that last year. I’m doubtful he’ll have that effect on the ACM voter demographic, though; this one’s Bryan’s to lose … but really, truly, belongs to Underwood.
Kevin: Strait’s victory at last year’s CMA Awards was the highlight of the night. But I agree with the consensus. Fan votes have this thing locked up for Bryan.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win
Jason Aldean – TS
Lee Brice
Luke Bryan – KJC
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Will Win
Jason Aldean
Lee Brice
Luke Bryan – KJC, TS, BF, JK
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Ben: Bryan seems to have had the biggest year, but I’m not personally invested in any of these choices.
Jonathan: I’d be more excited about seeing new blood in this line-up if I were in any way impressed with Brice. Just looking at mainstream stars who had hits during the eligibility period, a superior slate of nominees could be culled from Gary Allan, Dierks Bentley, Eric Church, Easton Corbin, Brad Paisley, Darius Rucker, and Chris Young.
Tara: I’ll be damned if Aldean hasn’t grown on me over the past few years. His material is still too uneven for me to get behind, but I’ve come to begrudgingly respect his appeal. My guess is his crown will go to Bryan, though.
Kevin: I like the fact that after the endless streak from Paisley, we’ve gotten different winners in the past two years. The only two who haven’t won yet are Brice and Bryan. The latter is the only one at the level to warrant a win at this time.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win
Sheryl Crow
Miranda Lambert
Kacey Musgraves – KJC, BF
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood – TS
Will Win
Sheryl Crow
Miranda Lambert – TS, BF, JK
Kacey Musgraves – KJC
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Ben: Lambert’s status as one of this year’s leading nominees indicates that voters still have the hots for her. Her reign will end eventually, but I won’t bet on it happening this time around.
Jonathan: Brandy Clark LeAnn Rimes Ashley Monroe Kellie Pickler Julie Roberts Holly Williams No? On the brightside, Crow managed to snag the fifth slot instead of either of Blake Shelton’s overpraised “The Voice” winners, but that’s really where the good news ends. It seems premature for Musgraves to win this award, and I’m honestly still not all that enamored of her beyond “Follow Your Arrow.” I’ve been pulling for Underwood of late, but both she and Swift ended this eligibility period with two of their worst singles, so I’d have reservations about seeing either of them win. Lambert seems poised to repeat based on her haul of nominations; as fun as “Mama’s Broken Heart” is, I’d feel better about this streak of hers had it spanned her far superior Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and Revolution eras.
Tara: I’m sticking with Underwood for one more cycle, mostly because Musgraves’ charming “Follow Your Arrow” didn’t really make its (relatively small) impact until after the eligibility period. It’s hard to swallow how many of these awards Lambert is racking up between the ACM’s and the CMA’s, but I suspect the trend will continue.
Kevin: Go big or go home. Musgraves is the ACM’s opportunity to definitively position itself as the more substantive country awards show, a status they’ve been flirting with as the CMA’s have moved in the opposite direction. I think she’ll pull it off, and I’ll be happy to see her do it.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win
Big & Rich
Dan + Shay
Florida Georgia Line - KJC
Love and Theft
Thompson Square – TS, JK
Will Win
Big & Rich
Dan + Shay
Florida Georgia Line – KJC, TS, BF, JK
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Ben: This category remains lame and pointless as ever, but at least I can give credit for the fact that they finally stopped shoehorning in Sugarland.
Jonathan: Thompson Square is the only one of these five acts who released a single that I didn’t absolutely hate during the past year. While that’s an accomplishment of sorts, it’s hardly one that should keep this category from being combined with the Vocal Group race.
Tara: I don’t mind Thompson Square. That’s the best thing I can say about this line-up.
Kevin: I’m not really a fan of any of these acts, so again, I’ll root for variety. Thompson Square has two wins already. Florida Georgia Line had a great year. Give them their due, and then perhaps we can forget they ever happened.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town – TS, JK
The Band Perry
Zac Brown Band – KJC
Will Win
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
The Band Perry – KJC, TS, JK, BJF
Zac Brown Band
Jonathan: I couldn’t vote against Little Big Town during a year when they released “Sober,” but Zac Brown Band continues to release solid material and remains overdue for recognition. The Band Perry have a run of huge hit singles– the first two of which were as clever and progressive as anything country radio has touched in a minute– to their credit during the eligibility period. Momentum seems to be on their side at the moment, and I think they’ll score the night’s only real upset.
Tara: The Band Perry are walking a skillful line between commercial and creative, and I think they’ll be rewarded. As for me, I’m clinging to Little Big Town at least until the exquisite “Sober” becomes old news.
Kevin: I think that The Band Perry is best positioned to win, but Zac Brown Band is the most overdue.
Ben: I’m torn between picking The Band Perry for having had such a strong year, and picking Little Big Town for releasing one of my favorite singles of 2013. But despite Little Big Town’s recent hot streak, I expect The Band Perry’s commercial stats will net them their first win in this category.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win
Brett Eldredge
Justin Moore
Kip Moore – KJC, TS, BF
Will Win
Brett Eldredge
Justin Moore – TS, JK, BF
Kip Moore
Jonathan: Of these three, Justin Moore has been building his fanbase for the longest period of time, so it seems logical that he’ll win based on the fan vote.
Tara: I’ve been in Kip Moore’s corner for a few years now, but doubt he’ll take this. True story: Sometimes I think Justin Moore and Brice are the same person.
Album of the Year
Should Win
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story…
Luke Bryan, Crash My Party
Florida Georgia Line, Here’s to the Good Times
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – KJC, TS, BF, JK
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Will Win
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story… JK
Luke Bryan, Crash My Party
Florida Georgia Line, Here’s to the Good Times
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – TS, KJC, BF
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Ben: Musgraves is the only one deserving of a nomination, let alone a win.
Jonathan: 2013 was an extraordinary year for country music, and that is in no way reflected in this appalling slate of nominees. Musgraves’ album is the only one that belongs in any conversation about the best of contemporary country. But there seems to be some growing consensus that Shelton is owed something more than his own celebrity status, so he’s the most likely winner.
Tara: A part of me thinks the voters will ride the 2013 Musgraves fan train and use this as an opportunity to show some relevance. But that’s a gamble of a guess, considering the atrocious other nominees.
Kevin: They’ve been more supportive of good art in this category than the CMA’s lately, so I’m thinking Musgraves has this wrapped up, and the ACM will be the tiebreaker between the Grammys and the CMA’s.
Single Record of the Year
Should Win
Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise”
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – KJC, BF, TS, JK
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
Will Win
Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise” – TS, BF, JK
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – KJC
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
Jonathan: A case could be made for any of these five singles actually winning, but I’ll let my pessimism about the overall nominations carry the most weight here and say that “Cruise” will win. “Mama’s Broken Heart” is only Lambert’s fifth-or-sixth-best single, but it’s easily the class of this field.
Tara: “Cruise” is too big for the voters to ignore, and that’s both depressing and funny. I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Rucker or Brice singles won, but Lambert’s “Mama’s Broken Heart” is clearly a cut above the rest with its sharp songwriting and spitting, bullet of a performance.
Kevin: Love the Lambert track, but the star power of McGraw/Swift/Urban seems hard to deny.
Song of the Year
Should Win
“Every Storm (Runs Out of Rain)” – Gary Allan, Hillary Lindsey, Matthew Warren
“I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Jimmy Yeary
“Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Deric Ruttan
“Wagon Wheel” – Bob Dylan, Ketch Secor
Jonathan: “Wagon Wheel” has become as close to a standard as any song in recent memory, and that generally doesn’t happen just by accident. This is one of the few times when Brandy Clark would be my second choice for a winner. The success of “I Drive Your Truck” propelled Brice to a surprising haul of nominations this year, though, and it’s clear that the song has resonated with a sizable bloc of voters.
Tara: This isn’t an awful line-up. I personally get the most kicks out of “Mama’s Broken Heart,” but I could make a case for all five songs, even the somewhat underrated “Mine Would Be You.” I have a gut feeling “I Drive Your Truck” will win on emotional heft, though.
Kevin: Perhaps it’s overly wishful thinking, but with “Merry Go Round” not in the running, voters have a clear path to rewarding both Musgraves and Clark, along with sending some more hardware Lambert’s way.
Video of the Year
Should Win
The Band Perry, “Better Dig Two”
Kacey Musgraves, “Blowin’ Smoke”
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Carrie Underwood, “Two Black Cadillacs” – KJC, TS, BF, JK
Will Win
The Band Perry, “Better Dig Two”
Kacey Musgraves, “Blowin’ Smoke”
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – BF
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – JK, TS
Carrie Underwood, “Two Black Cadillacs” – KJC
Jonathan: The video for “Blowin’ Smoke” looks like a reel of B-roll footage from Rob Zombie’s The Devil’s Rejects, which was an interesting aesthetic choice but was still nowhere near as fun as the Christine homage in “Two Black Cadillacs.”
Tara: I dig the tongue-in-cheek realism of Musgraves’ video and the whimsy of Lambert’s, but Underwood makes the most unexpected, imaginative choice.
Kevin: They’ve got to give Underwood something, right? I’m not a huge fan of the video, really. The song is awfully suggestive, but doesn’t come right out and say that the two ladies killed the guy. So the video takes that opening and decides, “The car did it!” But at least it’s a video. The others are just YouTube fodder.
Vocal Event of the Year
Should Win
Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies and Friends, “Boys ‘Round Here”
Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly, “Cruise” (Remix)
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – KJC, JK, BF
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel” – TS
Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert, “We Were Us
Will Win
Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies and Friends, “Boys ‘Round Here”
Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly, “Cruise” (Remix)
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – KJC, BF
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert, “We Were Us – TS, JK
Jonathan: Hillary Scott’s shrill attempts at singing harmony are the worst part of Rucker’s cover of “Wagon Wheel,” and hopefully the two hip-hop-circa-2003-inspired singles will split votes. “We Were Us” is the worst sounding track of the five– which is really saying something about how we’ve forever lost the Loudness War– but it seems like Lambert is going to have a big night.
Tara: I’ll go with “Wagon Wheel” by default, though its collaboration does it absolutely no favors, as Jonathan said. Even still, it’s far above these other middling to obnoxious (so loud!) singles.
Kevin: Fair warning. If Florida Georgia Line/Nelly win, I’m out. Done. No live blog for me after that!
The Country Universe staff has picked and predicted the 2014 Grammy Awards below, strange bunch that they are. Chime in with your thoughts, and catch the show on Sunday at 7 p.m. CST.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Sara Bareilles, The Blessed Unrest
Daft Punk, Random Access Memories - Kevin
Kendrick Lamar, good kid m.A.A.d. city – Jonathan
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, The Heist
Taylor Swift, Red
Will Win:
Sara Bareilles, The Blessed Unrest
Daft Punk, Random Access Memories - Kevin, Jonathan
Kendrick Lamar, good kid m.A.A.d. city
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, The Heist
Taylor Swift, Red
Kevin: With electronic music so mainstream now, it would be wise and timely for NARAS to acknowledge the excellent comeback of one of its pioneers, especially as the year’s best country albums (Brandy Clark, Kacey Musgraves, Ashley Monroe, etc.) and the year’s best rap album (Kanye West) didn’t score nominations in the top category.
Jonathan: Lamar and Daft Punk would both be worthy winners of an award that rarely seems to go to one. Hip-hop and R&B have notoriously struggled in the general field in recent years, so Daft Punk’s cachet with the rock contingent should give them the edge over Swift, who didn’t score the across-the-board support many were expecting from her this year. If the voters are feeling especially timid, though, watch out for “Brave” yelper Bareilles as a spoiler.
Record of the Year
Should Win:
“Blurred Lines” – Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell Williams
“Get Lucky” – Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams – Kevin, Jonathan, Tara
“Locked Out of Heaven” – Bruno Mars
“Radioactive” – Imagine Dragons
“Royals” – Lorde – Dan
Will Win:
“Blurred Lines” – Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell Williams – Tara
“Get Lucky” – Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams
“Locked Out of Heaven” – Bruno Mars – Kevin, Jonathan, Ben
“Radioactive” – Imagine Dragons
“Royals” – Lorde - Dan
Kevin: “Get Lucky” was retro and modern at the same time, featuring the charismatic Williams. That guy makes everything better. I’m guessing Mars will get it because he’s the most established and arguably is overdue for a big win.
Dan: “Royals” was the most refreshing to me. Winner feels like a real toss-up, though.
Jonathan: Prevailing logic as to why hip-hop tracks have fared so poorly in this category is that NARAS voters are still hell-bent on rewarding live instrumentation, so it’s hard to imagine something as spare as “Royals” winning, even if it’s the most distinctive choice. “Get Lucky” would get my vote, but look for Bruno Mars to head off to his Super Bowl Halftime gig with some new hardware in hand to reward his Police homage.
Tara: Lots of atmospheric tunes here. “Get Lucky” seems like the one that will feel no less groovy in ten years time. I wouldn’t put any money on it, but I could see the voters ignoring controversy and rewarding the biggest hit of the year.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“Just Give Me a Reason” – Jeff Bhasker, P!nk, and Nate Reuss – Kevin, Ben
“Locked out of Heaven” – Phillip Lawrence, Ari Levine, and Bruno Mars
“Roar” – Lukasz Gottwald, Max Martin, Bonnie McKee, Katy Perry, and Henry Walter
“Royals” – Joel Little and Lorde – Jonathan
“Same Love” – Ben Haggerty, Mary Lambert, Ryan Lewis, and Curtis Mayfield – Dan, Tara
Will Win:
“Just Give Me a Reason” – Jeff Bhasker, P!nk, and Nate Reuss - Kevin, Ben, Dan
“Locked out of Heaven” – Phillip Lawrence, Ari Levine, and Bruno Mars
“Roar” – Lukasz Gottwald, Max Martin, Bonnie McKee, Katy Perry, and Henry Walter
“Royals” – Joel Little and Lorde
“Same Love” – Ben Haggerty, Mary Lambert, Ryan Lewis, and Curtis Mayfield - Jonathan, Tara
Kevin: P!nk is long overdue for a top tier award, and her co-write with previous winner Nate Reuss was, in my opinion, the best duet in a year chock full of ‘em.
Dan: The Macklemore & Ryan Lewis composition is somehow the most personal of the group even as it makes the biggest, broadest statement. And the climactic third verse still gives me chills.
Jonathan: I don’t care that Kacey Musgraves is a fan of hers: Perry’s nomination is indefensible, with four adults credited on a song that rhymes “zero” with “hero” and that allows pop music’s least-capable vocalist to scream a series of self-help cliches. The broad, even-in-the-flyover-states popularity of “Same Love,” though, gives the voters a safe opportunity to make a political statement and to recognize one of the year’s breakthrough acts.
Tara: It’s a toss-up between “Royals” and “Same Love” for me in terms of substance and purposeful songwriting, but I can’t ignore the chills I also get listening to the latter. I agree with Jonathan that this is a win-win way for the voters to make a statement.
Best New Artist
Should Win:
James Blake
Kendrick Lamar – Jonathan
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis – Dan
Kacey Musgraves – Kevin, Ben, Tara
Ed Sheeran
Will Win:
James Blake
Kendrick Lamar
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis - Dan, Kevin, Tara
Kacey Musgraves - Jonathan, Ben
Ed Sheeran
Kevin: Gotta root for the home team. I think Macklemore & Lewis will win, though.
Dan: For once, this category is hot across the board; you could make a great argument for any of these folks. Personally, I find Macklemore & Ryan Lewis to be the most exciting.
Ben: I don’t always gravitate toward the country-affiliated New Artist nominee, but then again it’s rare for me to be so invested in a country newcomer’s artistry as I am with Musgraves. To see her win would make my heart happy.
Jonathan: Lamar is making the most compelling music of this lot, but this category’s history dictates that it’s Musgraves’ award to lose. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis pose a real threat, but being the only woman nominated plays in Musgraves’ favor.
Tara: It’s hard to tell if Musgraves’ profile outside of the country sphere is big enough to nab her this one, but I’d be happy if it did. I hope she keeps the face in check if it doesn’t, though.
Best Country Album
Should Win:
Jason Aldean, Night Train
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – Dan, Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story
Taylor Swift, Red
Will Win:
Jason Aldean, Night Train
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story – Sam
Taylor Swift, Red - Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Kevin: Don’t see how Taylor doesn’t win, though Musgraves made the best album by a decent margin, regardless of how country any of ‘em are.
Dan: Here’s the most logical place to reward Musgraves, though I guess Red’s nomination in the general Album of the Year field makes it the frontrunner in this category. And that’s fine; whatever. I’ve been hoping for Swift’s albums to be grouped under “Pop” at the Grammys since Fearless. It ain’t gonna happen.
Ben: Should Win – easy choice. Will Win – also an easy choice.
Sam: Just to be contrary, I think Shelton’s built up enough recognition with his “The Voice” gig that he has name recognition from voters who know next to nothing about country music. The fact that it was a terrible, terrible album doesn’t really matter.
Jonathan: No, Red shouldn’t be nominated in the Country field, so I wouldn’t vote for it on principle, even though its best tracks are far and away the strongest material in this line-up. NARAS has no qualms about rewarding pop crossover albums here, so it would be a huge upset were Swift to lose. When we were all prepping our ballots for our year-end countdowns, I had Musgraves’ album at #38. It’s good and I certainly understand why it has as many fans as it does, but I’m just not as bullish on it as others seem to be. Still, it would be my personal choice from this paltry line-up, since Aldean’s, McGraw’s, and Shelton’s albums ranged from pedestrian to downright unlistenable.
Tara: Seems like an easy Swift win, but I get where Sam’s head is at re: Shelton. There’s no question Musgraves made the best music, though, and what a shame she’s not surrounded by her peers who made even better music.
Best Country Solo Performance
Should Win:
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Hunter Hayes, “I Want Crazy”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Dan, Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
Blake Shelton, “Mine Would Be You”
Will Win:
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Hunter Hayes, “I Want Crazy”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” - Dan, Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
Blake Shelton, “Mine Would Be You”
Kevin: Lambert is the only female and the only previous winner. I’d be shocked if she lost.
Ben: To me, Lambert’s performance alone claims the distinction of making an already-great song even better.
Sam: This could be one of those rare occasions where the best nominee actually wins a Grammy. I think Hunter Hayes is a long shot, as most Grammy voters are not teenaged girls.
Jonathan: What Kevin said. Also, he’s a talented instrumentalist, but the Grammy voters’ fascination with Hunter Hayes is baffling.
Tara: Lambert’s is the most distinct and impactful performance here, but I’ll throw in my defense of Hayes’ “I Want Crazy,” a song and vocal that’s as breathlessly exuberant as Keith Urban’s best work.
Best Country Duo/Group Performance
Should Win:
The Civil Wars, “From This Valley”
Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush”
Little Big Town, “Your Side of the Bed” – Jonathan
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton, “You Can’t Make Old Friends” – Kevin, Ben, Tara
Will Win:
The Civil Wars, “From This Valley”
Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush”
Little Big Town, “Your Side of the Bed”
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” - Kevin, Ben, Tara
Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton, “You Can’t Make Old Friends” - Jonathan, Sam
Kevin: The high octane collaboration of McGraw/Swift/Urban has been unstoppable thus far. Kudos to NARAS for noticing Rogers & Parton’s beautiful work, their best together since “Islands in the Stream.”
Ben: “You Can’t Make Old Friends” is enough to give many a longtime country music lover warm fuzzies, but the commercial clout of “Highway Don’t Care” may be too much to beat.
Sam: If you’re a Grammy voter and have to decide on a zillion categories, do you take the time to sit and listen to each nominee, or do you skim over the names and pick the ones you’re most familiar with? Kenny and Dolly for the win.
Jonathan: One of the strongest sets of nominees anywhere on the Grammy ballot this year. Little Big Town would get my vote so that they have a win for something besides “Pontoon” to their credit, but I think NARAS’ older voters will be swayed by the effortless charm of the Rogers and Parton duet.
Tara: I don’t love any of these except for the Rogers and Parton collaboration, as much as I wanted to embrace “Don’t Rush” (Kelly Clarkson! Vince Gill!). I think the middle-of-the-road McGraw / Swift / Urban song will win out, but here’s to hoping the voters act on warm fuzzies.
Best Country Song
Should Win:
“Begin Again” – Taylor Swift
“I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, and Jimmy Yeary
“Merry Go ‘Round” – Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves, and Josh Osborne - Ben
“Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Deric Ruttan
Kevin: Gotta root for the Brandy Clark co-write, which is conveniently the best composition anyway. Still, I think voters will use this category to acknowledge Musgraves for writing her own hit instead of Miranda’s.
Ben: I seem to be in the minority here, but I actually consider “Merry Go ‘Round” to be the finer of the two Musgraves co-writes – which is not to say that I don’t adore “Mama’s Broken Heart” or that I wouldn’t be thrilled to see Brandy Clark also gain a mantle decoration. This would seem a comfortable place for voters to acknowledge Musgraves – as well as a likely consolation prize should she lose Best New Artist – and like Kevin, I expect it will be for the hit she performed as well as wrote.
Sam: I’d just like to point out that this is an incredibly strong group of nominees and shows there is some substance to country music once you weed out all the tailgate songs.
Jonathan: Things could play out here in a similar fashion to the CMAs, with vote-splitting among the multiple nominations for Musgraves, McAnally, Alexander, and Harrington. That worked to the latter pair’s advantage at the CMAs, where “I Drive Your Truck” pulled off a surprise win, but Shelton’s powerballad could siphon votes from Brice’s hit this time. As much as I love the idea of Brandy Clark as a Grammy winner, I think the various vote-splits will allow one of Swift’s best-written songs to win.
Tara: As strong as Lambert’s spitfire performance is, I’d argue that the bones of “Mama’s Broken Heart” are even stronger. I’ve never been able to connect with “Merry Go Round” the way others have, but agree this is likely where the voters will single Musgraves out.
Best American Roots Song
Should Win:
“Build Me Up From Bones” – Sarah Jarosz – Jonathan
“Invisible” – Steve Earle
“Keep Your Dirty Lights On” – Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott – Kevin
“Love Has Come From You” – Edie Brickell and Steve Martin
“Shrimp Po-Boy, Dressed” – Allen Touissant
Will Win:
“Build Me Up From Bones” – Sarah Jarosz
“Invisible” – Steve Earle
“Keep Your Dirty Lights On” – Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott
“Love Has Come From You” – Edie Brickell and Steve Martin- Kevin, Jonathan
“Shrimp Po-Boy, Dressed” – Allen Touissant
Kevin: Can voters resist Steve Martin? If they do, I hope it’s to acknowledge again the unique talents of Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott. They are so good together.
Jonathan: Jarosz draws favorable comparisons to Alison Krauss, and, if ever there were a surefire way to appeal to Grammy voters, that would be it. She’d get my vote for the exceptional title track from her third album, though, like Kevin, I’m a big fan of O’Brien’s and Scott’s work together. Martin’s charm and name recognition are likely to give his duet with erstwhile New Bohemian Brickell the edge here.
Best Americana Album
Should Win:
Emmylou Harris and Rodney Crowell, Old Yellow Moon – Kevin, Jonathan, Sam
Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Love Has Come For You
Buddy Miller and Jim Lauderdale, Buddy and Jim
Mavis Staples, One True Vine
Allen Touissant, Songbook
Will Win:
Emmylou Harris and Rodney Crowell, Old Yellow Moon - Kevin, Ben
Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Love Has Come For You - Jonathan
Buddy Miller and Jim Lauderdale, Buddy and Jim
Mavis Staples, One True Vine
Allen Touissant, Songbook - Sam
Kevin: Martin & Brickell might be the most logical choice, but in a category stacked with veterans, Harris & Crowell must be tempting to voters who are long time fans of both.
Sam: The fact that Jason Isbell wasn’t nominated here shows that Americana music has a long way to go before Grammy voters stop using it at the place where all veteran singer/songwriters end up. As for this year, Allen Touissant is older and has past Grammy love, so my money is on him.
Jonathan: The strongest, most vital year for Americana music in a decade is rewarded with a staid slate of nominees. Old Yellow Moon is the obvious standout and could very well win, but I think Martin’s well-received album with Brickell has the edge based on Martin’s celebrity.
Best Bluegrass Album
Should Win:
The Boxcars, It’s Just a Road
Dailey & Vincent, Brothers of the Highway – Jonathan
Della Mae, This World Oft Can Be
James King, Three Chords and the Truth
Del McCoury Band, The Streets of Baltimore
Will Win:
The Boxcars, It’s Just a Road
Dailey & Vincent, Brothers of the Highway
Della Mae, This World Oft Can Be
James King, Three Chords and the Truth
Del McCoury Band, The Streets of Baltimore - Kevin, Jonathan, Ben
Kevin: Haven’t heard these albums enough to have a personal favorite, but I think the Del McCoury Band’s name recognition will power it to a win.
Jonathan: Both the Del McCoury Band and Dailey & Vincent are nominated for some of their very best work, and either would be a richly deserving winner. Della Mae have a fairly vocal fanbase, but it isn’t clear if that fanbase overlaps with the Grammy voter bloc enough to unseat one of the two bigger-name acts.
Best Folk Album
Should Win:
Guy Clark, My Favorite Picture of You – Kevin, Ben
The Greencards, Sweetheart of the Sun
Sarah Jarosz, Build Me Up From Bones – Jonathan
The Milk Carton Kids, The Ash & Clay
Various Artists, They all Played for Us: Arhoolie Records 50th Anniversary Celebration
Will Win:
Guy Clark, My Favorite Picture of You - Kevin, Ben, Jonathan
The Greencards, Sweetheart of the Sun
Sarah Jarosz, Build Me Up From Bones
The Milk Carton Kids, The Ash & Clay
Various Artists, They all Played for Us: Arhoolie Records 50th Anniversary Celebration
Kevin: Sentimental favorite who also put out a great album? How can they deny Guy Clark?
Jonathan: I’m tempted to pick the Arhoolie Records without having heard it, simply because it just seems like something the idiosyncratic Grammys would go for. Clark is a safer bet for his beautifully observed album, while the ascendant Jarosz would get my vote for her career-best work.
Darius Rucker celebrates the radio with his current hit, simply titled “Radio.”
It’s tolerable enough, more tastefully produced than your average country radio hit, but it never quite overcomes the fact that its territory is one that other artists have covered much better in the past. (Exhibits A, B, C) The lyrics fail to rise above rote scenes of a nameless, faceless narrator driving down the highway with his nameless, faceless friends, and parking his truck beneath the stars to get cozy with his nameless, faceless girlfriend. The whole of the song is weighed down by a general sense of non-distinction, reflected in its generic one-word title.
Unfortunately, the dynamics aren’t strong enough to compensate. The melody is dull and lifeless, and Rucker’s performance is forgettable. The end result is a song that might not be bad enough to be an immediate station-changer, but nor is there anything here that would inspire me to ‘turn it up, turn it up to 10…’
Written by Darius Rucker, Luke Laird and Ashley Gorley
I think I’ve discovered a virtue of rock bands that choose to go country. They feel a need to dial it back a bit, so we end up with a less cluttered, more straightforward performance.
There’s nothing distinguishingly country about “Carolina”, which makes it stand out among a lot of what’s on country radio right now. But here’s the rub. It stands out because it’s not as garishly loud as the rock wannabes up and down the radio dial right now. They don’t try as hard as Darius Rucker or even Sheryl Crow to make it at least sound like they’re seriously attempting country music, but maybe less loud rock music is the best we can hope for these days.
So, in case you’re pining for the days of Third Eye Blind and such, here you go. They’re called Parmalee.
Written by Rick Beato, Barry Knox, Joshua McSwain, Matt Thomas, and Scott Thomas
The nominations for the 56th Annual Grammy Awards have been announced. Taylor Swift has the top nomination connected to country music, earning her second nomination for Album of the Year. She took home the award four years ago for Fearless.
Here are the general category nominees, along with all country and country-related categories:
Album of the Year
Sara Bareilles, The Blessed Unrest
Daft Punk, Random Access Memories
Kendrick Lamar, good kid m.A.A.d. city
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, The Heist
Taylor Swift, Red
If Taylor Swift wins, she will be the first country-related artist in history to win the category twice with individual projects. Alison Krauss also has two victories, one for her collaboration with Robert Plant (Raising Sand, 2009), and another for her contributions to the O Brother Where Art Thou soundtrack (2002.) The award has only been won by country artists in two other years: Glen Campbell for By the Time I Get to Phoenix (1968), and the Dixie Chicks for Taking the Long Way (2007).
Record of the Year
“Blurred Lines” – Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell Williams
“Get Lucky” – Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams
“Locked Out of Heaven” – Bruno Mars
“Radioactive” – Imagine Dragons
“Royals” – Lorde
For the third time in the last eight years, no country or country-related records make the cut. Only four country-related winners have triumphed in this category, but three of them have been in the last few years. Olivia Newton-John won for “I Honestly Love You” in 1975, followed much later by the Dixie Chicks for “Not Ready to Make Nice” in 2006; Robert Plant & Alison Krauss for “Please Read the Letter” in 2009; and Lady Antebellum for “Need You Now” in 2011.
Song of the Year
“Just Give Me a Reason” – Jeff Bhasker, P!nk, and Nate Reuss
“Locked out of Heaven” – Phillip Lawrence, Ari Levine, and Bruno Mars
“Roar” – Lukasz Gottwald, Max Martin, Bonnie McKee, Katy Perry, and Henry Walter
“Royals” – Joel Little and Lorde
“Same Love” – Ben Haggerty, Mary Lambert, Ryan Lewis, and Curtis Mayfield
For the third straight year, country is shut out of the top songwriting category, a streak that began after the writers of Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now” won in 2011.
Best New Artist
James Blake
Kendrick Lamar
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
Kacey Musgraves
Ed Sheeran
Kacey Musgraves is the latest new artist to represent country music in this category, which has become a nearly annual occurrence since LeAnn Rimes was nominated and won back in 1997. Previous country winners also include Bobbie Gentry (1968), Carrie Underwood (2007) and Zac Brown Band (2010).
Best Country Album
Jason Aldean, Night Train
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story
Taylor Swift, Red
Despite the presence of four big, established stars, only Taylor Swift has actually earned a victory in this category. She won in 2010 for Fearless. She contended again in 2012 with Speak Now, which lost to repeating victors Lady Antebellum, who won two years in a row for Need You Now (2011) and Own the Night (2012). Kacey Musgraves earns a nomination for her debut album, the first artist do so since 2005, when Gretchen Wilson contended with Here For the Party.
Best Country Solo Performance
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Hunter Hayes, “I Want Crazy”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
Blake Shelton, “Mine Would Be You”
Since this category combined the solo categories into one, this award has been one by Taylor Swift (“Mean”) and Carrie Underwood (“Blown Away.”) Lambert is the only previous winner in a predecessor of this category.
Best Country Duo/Group Performance
The Civil Wars, “From This Valley”
Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush”
Little Big Town, “Your Side of the Bed”
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton, “You Can’t Make Old Friends”
There’s really only one hit here, but there are plenty of former Grammy winners scattered among this category. In case you’re wondering, the answer is no, they didn’t win a Grammy for “Islands in the Stream.”
Best Country Song
“Begin Again” – Taylor Swift
“I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, and Jimmy Yeary
“Merry Go ‘Round” – Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves, and Josh Osborne
“Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Deric Ruttan
It’s not too common for people to receive double nominations, but here there are four songwriters competing against themselves: Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Shane McAnally, and Kacey Musgraves.
Best American Roots Song
“Build Me Up From Bones” – Sarah Jarosz
“Invisible” – Steve Earle
“Keep Your Dirty Lights On” – Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott
“Love Has Come From You” – Edie Brickell and Steve Martin
“Shrimp Po-Boy, Dressed” – Allen Touissant
This category is brand new this year, encompassing songs from all of the subcategories in the American Roots field: Americana, bluegrass, blues, folk, and regional roots music.
Best Americana Album
Emmylou Harris and Rodney Crowell, Old Yellow Moon
Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Love Has Come For You
Buddy Miller and Jim Lauderdale, Buddy and Jim
Mavis Staples, One True Vine
Allen Touissant, Songbook
Collaborations dominate this category, which is populated with many previous Grammy winners. Emmylou Harris won this award twice, back when it was called Best Contemporary Folk Album.
Best Bluegrass Album
The Boxcars, It’s Just a Road
Dailey & Vincent, Brothers of the Highway
Della Mae, This World Oft Can Be
James King, Three Chords and the Truth
Del McCoury Band, The Streets of Baltimore
Del McCoury Band are the only returning victors in this category, winning back in 2006 for The Company We Keep. Perhaps because of the broad voter base, this category has been dominated by acts with explicit ties to country music, including multiple wins by Ricky Skaggs, Jim Lauderdale, and Alison Krauss & Union Station, and one-off victories by Patty Loveless and Dolly Parton. This year is the second in a row without crossover contenders; last year’s winner was the Steep Canyon Rangers for Nobody Knows You.
Best Folk Album
Guy Clark, My Favorite Picture of You
The Greencards, Sweetheart of the Sun
Sarah Jarosz, Build Me Up From Bones
The Milk Carton Kids, The Ash & Clay
Various Artists, They all Played for Us: Arhoolie Records 50th Anniversary Celebration
A tribute to Guy Clark earned a nomination in this category last year, and now Clark himself is in contention for the prize. None of the acts in contention have won in the folk fields before.
Also of note, the Pistol Annies set Annie Up earned nominations for engineer Chuck Ainlay and mastering engineer Bob Ludwig in the Best Engineered Album, Non-Classical category. It competes against Daft Punk, another album mastered by Ludwig, along with sets by Alice in Chains, Queens of the Stone Age, Andrew Duhon, and Madeline Payroux.
They’re as hope-dangling and ridiculous as they’ve ever been, those Country Music Association voters, and the CU staff has picked and predicted their 2013 awards below. Let us know what you think, and check back for our live blog on Wednesday at 7 p.m. CST!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Blake Shelton
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Will Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Blake Shelton – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Dan: Sadly, it’s become hard to care about the night’s biggest prize. Swift and Strait are the two I can stomach right now, and neither of them actually had much to do with the country scene this past year—the former because she was flexing her pop muscles, the latter because he’s winding down.
Ben: I want to care, but I really don’t. There’s only one artist whom I could have supported unequivocally, and she didn’t get a nomination.
Jonathan: The CMAs have a tendency to lag a few years behind peak commercial trends, so I think Bryan will have to wait another year or two before he takes this award. While Bryan, Aldean, and Shelton could split votes among the bro contingent (presumably, to the benefit of Strait), I think Shelton’s visibility will be enough to earn him another win here.
Tara: This was Carrie Underwood’s year. I’m angry, unsurprised and completely apathetic about the rest of these contenders.
Kevin: Shelton won last year and if anything, his star has only shone brighter this year. That being said, if I was a CMA voter, I’d leave this category blank. Carrie Underwood was this year’s Entertainer of the Year.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan – Kevin
Eric Church – Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Dan
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Will Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan - Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Eric Church
Blake Shelton – Kevin
Keith Urban
Dan: Again, pretty indifferent here.
Ben: Church was between albums this year, but he’s the one whom I feel has represented country music the best. With Urban being past his commercial peak, I’m going to give the edge to Luke Bryan for his current red-hot momentum, but I honestly couldn’t care less which of the three dudebros gets it.
Jonathan: I’d replace four-fifths of this lineup with Gary Allan, Dierks Bentley, Darius Rucker, and Chris Young. If Bryan won’t win Entertainer of the Year, this will be his consolation prize.
Tara: I feel a little guilty rewarding Church’s residual awesomeness from Chief over Aldean’s admittedly solid year, but I’m still one redeeming single away from getting over “She’s Country.” Like Jonathan said, though, I think this is where the voters will reward Bryan.
Kevin: I’d give it to Bryan simply because he’s had a good year and has a good voice. Another Shelton win seems inevitable to me.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert
Kacey Musgraves
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Will Win:
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
Kacey Musgraves – Tara
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Dan: Who knows? Voters could give Lambert a record-tying (with Reba McEntire) four-peat, or maybe give Underwood her fourth trophy instead, or maybe give Swift a second one just to be zany, or dismiss the stats entirely and make a surprise investment in Musgraves. I can imagine any of those scenarios playing out.
Ben: I’ll probably be 100% Team Kacey at next year’s ACMs, but right now I want to see Underwood recognized for her incredible Blown Away era. As Dan noted above, this category is difficult to predict this year. I’m going to play it safe and bet on Lambert, but Kelly Clarkson is the only one without a shot.
Jonathan: Since there are far stronger albums than Blown Away in contention for Album of the Year, this is where I’d prefer to see Underwood recognized for the artistic gains she’s made during her current era. Lambert basically told voters to do just that during her acceptance speech for Female Vocalist of the Year during the ACMs a few months back, but it seems doubtful that they will. She seems poised to repeat, even though she’s coming off the most poorly received and lowest selling run of her career. Based on the quality of what was released during the eligibility period, I would have preferred to see Brandy Clark, Ashley Monroe, Kellie Pickler, and LeAnn Rimes squaring off against Underwood.
Tara: Just going out on a limb here with Musgraves; it feels like this category is due for a change. Or maybe that change will be a throwback to Underwood? One can hope.
Kevin: I think Lambert will win out of force of habit, with bonus votes for having the good taste to cover Musgraves and Clark before they both became breakout artists this year. Underwood made the best music and, as always, sang it better than the rest.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town – Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Zac Brown Band – Dan, Kevin
Will Win:
The Band Perry – Kevin
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Zac Brown Band
Dan: I suppose that Little Big Town will repeat—but with “Your Side of the Bed” having doused their white-hot momentum, it’s hard to say for sure. Perhaps voters will finally throw Zac Brown Band the bone, if Brown’s Luke Bryan comments didn’t ruffle too many feathers. [Update: And ditto what Kevin says below.]
Ben: Little Big Town may have lost some steam with “Your Side of the Bed,” but they’re still going into the ring with a platinum album and two big hit singles, and they’re one of the only groups with multiple nominations this year. The trophy is theirs to lose.
Jonathan: Had The Band Perry scored more across-the-board support, I’d say they might have been able to pull off the upset here, but this remains Little Big Town’s to lose. Hopefully, a repeat victory will lend “Sober,” one of the year’s finest singles and arguably a new career-best for LBT, greater momentum at radio.
Tara: Cheers to that, Jonathan. Agreed.
Kevin: The Band Perry had a new album this year that was well-received. My personal pick is Zac Brown Band, only because I want last year’s Little Big Town win to start a new era in this category of acknowledging the overdue. Having the Dixie Chicks rack up four wins in five years is one thing. Rascal Flatts and Lady Antebellum dominating in the same way robbed the award of its luster. Last year, it got a little back. Let’s keep it going.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
Big & Rich
The Civil Wars – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
Sugarland
Thompson Square
Will Win:
Big & Rich
The Civil Wars
Florida Georgia Line – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Love and Theft
Sugarland
Thompson Square
Dan: After years of sluggish Sugarland and shruggish Thompson Square, at least this year’s winning duo will have clear commercial heft behind them. Too bad I’m talking about Florida Georgia Line and not the also-quite-successful Civil Wars.
Ben: Whatever.
Jonathan: Same as it ever was: This category is years overdue to merge with Vocal Group. And the nomination for Sugarland is absurd.
Tara: I can’t decide what’s more amusing: Sugarland’s nomination or Florida Georgia Line’s inevitable win. (Although it does kind of feel like Sugarland is still haunting country radio with that new Band Perry single, no?)
Kevin: The Civil Wars. I swear they’re only nominating them so we can feel extra bad when they lose to Florida Georgia Line. (See: Rascal Flatts over Alison Krauss & Union Station, Martina McBride over Dolly Parton and Patty Loveless…)
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
Lee Brice
Brett Eldredge
Florida Georgia Line
Kacey Musgraves – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Kip Moore
Will Win:
Lee Brice
Brett Eldredge
Florida Georgia Line – Dan, Ben
Kacey Musgraves – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Kip Moore
Dan: Musgraves is class valedictorian, and Moore’s a solid B+ student, but expect the boys of Florida Georgia Line to cruise in on baseball scholarship and come out on top.
Ben: Musgraves has a chance, but I don’t know if her critical clout will be enough to compete with the “Cruise” phenomenon.
Jonathan: That Musgraves is the night’s leading nominee gives me hope that she can overcome Florida Georgia Line’s commercial heft. That she had the balls to push “Follow Your Arrow” as a proper single puts me firmly in her corner.
Tara: Moore is my personal favorite here, but Musgraves outclasses them all. I’ll throw my optimism in with Jonathan and Kevin.
Kevin: This is a defining moment for the CMA’s. Musgraves will help restore their credibility. Florida Georgia Line will destroy what’s left of it. FWIW, Ricky Skaggs beat Lee Greenwood and Mark Chesnutt beat John Michael Montgomery. Then again, Rascal Flatts beat Nickel Creek and Terri Gibbs beat Rosanne Cash…
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Little Big Town, Tornado – Jonathan
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – Dan, Ben
Blake Shelton, Based On a True Story…
Taylor Swift, Red
Carrie Underwood, Blown Away – Tara, Kevin
Will Win:
Little Big Town, Tornado – Ben, Tara
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – Jonathan
Blake Shelton, Based On a True Story… – Dan
Taylor Swift, Red
Carrie Underwood, Blown Away – Kevin
Dan: Tough call. In recent years, the CMA has coalesced around the album with the most “story” value, whether that story was total domination (Fearless, My Kinda Party) or a respected artist finally hitting pay dirt (Revolution, Chief). Tornado seems like a fit for that second grouping, except that Little Big Town’s pay dirt was already last year. So the field seems open.
Ben: Of the four albums that have any real business being nominated for country awards, I consider the Musgraves set to be the strongest, but my gut says that it’s going to come down to either Shelton or Little Big Town. I’m going to be optimistic and predict an LBT victory.
Jonathan: I’m not nearly as bullish on Musgraves’ album as many others are, but it seems like this is safest place for voters to recognize her distinctive, critically acclaimed work. Tornado is my pick for the most consistently excellent set of this line-up; Red hits some glorious highs, but it’s also wildly uneven and has little business being recognized as a country album.
Tara:Tornado has some really fantastic production, and Blown Away is a stand-out showcase of Underwood’s interpretive abilities. Personal investment puts me in Underwood’s camp, but based on momentum and the fact that Musgraves is new, I think Little Big Town will take this.
Kevin: Musgraves has the most critical support, but Underwood made a much better album, in my opinion. I’m going out on a limb here and saying Underwood will win. My logic is that she had an incredible year and this is the best category to acknowledge that in. Also, a debut album has never won this award. There’s always a first time, but Musgraves has a lot of history up against her here.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise”
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Kacey Musgraves, “Merry Go ‘Round” – Dan, Ben
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
Will Win:
Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise” – Dan, Jonathan, Ben
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Kacey Musgraves, “Merry Go ‘Round”
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel” – Tara, Kevin
Dan: “Cruise” is the behemoth here, and behemoths tend to win Single.
Ben: Dan said it.
Jonathan: I’d like to think that a record-setting run atop Billboard’s ridiculous mongrel chart would be its own reward, but it probably won’t be.
Kevin: There have been some goofy winners in the past. “Elvira.” “Achy Breaky Heart.” “Bop.” But there aren’t any in the recent past. I think that “Wagon Wheel” allows the CMA to pick a big mainstream hit that has a bit of alt-country cred, should they decide against a Musgraves sweep.
Tara: I agree with Kevin that “Wagon Wheel” seems like a nice compromise for the voters. I’d be cool with any of the latter three winning, but to me, “Mama’s Broken Heart” has the most momentum from start to finish.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“I Drive Your Truck” (Lee Brice) - Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Jimmy Yeary
“Mama’s Broken Heart” (Miranda Lambert) – Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally and Kacey Musgraves – Kevin
“Merry Go ‘Round” (Kacey Musgraves) – Kacey Musgraves, Shane McAnally and Josh Osborne – Dan, Ben, Tara
“Pontoon” (Little Big Town) - Barry Dean, Natalie Hemby and Luke Laird
“Wagon Wheel” (Darius Rucker) - Bob Dylan and Ketch Secor – Dan, Jonathan
Will Win:
“I Drive Your Truck” (Lee Brice) - Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Jimmy Yeary - Dan, Jonathan
“Merry Go ‘Round” (Kacey Musgraves) – Kacey Musgraves, Shane McAnally and Josh Osborne – Ben, Tara, Kevin
“Pontoon” (Little Big Town) - Barry Dean, Natalie Hemby and Luke Laird
“Wagon Wheel” (Darius Rucker) - Bob Dylan and Ketch Secor
Dan: “Wagon Wheel” is a proven standard, but voters will probably want to go with something newer, and I guess I do, too. There’s a decent chance that Musgraves will get acknowledged here with “Merry Go ‘Round,” but with two co-writes in the pool, her danger is vote-splitting—and if that does happen, I defer to Jonathan’s logic below. Plus, frankly, CMA voters love songs about deceased loved ones.
Ben: It’s definitely possible that vote-splitting may be turn out to be Musgraves’ undoing in this category, but my guess is that “Merry Go ‘Round” will ultimately overshadow “Mama’s Broken Heart,” and that this will be where she gets her trip to the podium.
Jonathan: I’m all-in for the idea of recognizing brilliant songs that should have been hits a decade ago. Next year, can we get Drive-By Truckers’ “Outfit” or Neko Case’s “Deep Red Bells,” please? This year, I just can’t see the CMA giving an award to Bob Dylan, and, as much as I’d love to see Brandy Clark win, I think the Musgraves co-writes will split votes. Which leaves a frivolous holdover from last year to face off against the only “truck” song in years that’s worth even half a damn. I think the latter pulls off the night’s only real upset.
Tara: Lots of solid choices here; even “Pontoon” has a melody worth respecting. “Merry Go ‘Round” just edges out “Mama’s Broken Heart” for me, but I think the voters will be more pointed with their choice and reward Musgraves for her breakout song.
Kevin: “Merry Go ‘Round” fits in well with previous female writer wins. Distinct point of view, attention to details, and some quiet feminist commentary. My pick is “Mama’s Broken Heart”, which I think is just brilliant. “Line your lips and keep them closed.” Wow.
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Little Big Town, “Tornado”
Dan: The Underwood clip was made to win this award, but I find it silly. Why does she have lie around all sexily on that bed in the tornado shelter?
Ben: Little Big Town’s “Tornado” is also a worthy contender, but Underwood’s “Blown Away” video is an absolute tour de force.
Jonathan: The idea that this could be how the Pistol Annies win a CMA award just makes my teeth hurt. As big a fan of hers as I may be, Miranda’s mugging in the video for “Mama’s Broken Heart” makes her laughable acting gig on Law & Order: Perverts Unit seem measured and subtle by comparison.
Kevin: Because why shouldn’t there be two winners in this category that give homage to Oz?
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – Jonathan, Ben, Dan, Kevin, Tara
Jason Aldean with Luke Bryan and Eric Church, “The Only Way I Know”
Ben: Clarkson and Gill made the best record of the lot, but it doesn’t have the commercial muscle to pull off a victory, so I’m giving the edge to McGraw and Company.
Jonathan: Cosigning Ben’s comment, word for word.
Dan: “Highway Don’t Care” is kinda weird and meh, but it’s not “Boys ‘Round Here” and “The Only Way I Know”. For this, I am grateful.
Tara: I swear I’m not throwing this to Clarkson and Gill just because they’re Clarkson and Gill – I can stomach not one of these other songs. Part of me thinks Aldean and co. might take this, but McGraw and co. seems more likely.
Kevin: “Highway Don’t Care” made me enjoy both McGraw and Swift as singers, not just song pickers/songwriters. For that alone, the win.
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
Sam Bush (Mandolin) – Jonathan, Ben
Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – Kevin
Dann Huff (Guitar)
Brent Mason (Guitar)
Mac McAnally (Guitar)
Will Win:
Sam Bush (Mandolin)
Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
Dann Huff (Guitar)
Brent Mason (Guitar)
Mac McAnally (Guitar)
Ben: I’ll be all for Paul Franklin next year thanks to Bakersfield, but this year I would like to see Sam Bush get his due.
Jonathan: Bush may not have a MacArthur fellowship like Chris Thile, but his progressive mandolin work is certainly overdue for recognition. Hard to begrudge Franklin, though, as Bakersfield is one of the year’s best albums.
Kevin: Until he wins. I will pick him until he wins.
No matter that Old Crow Medicine Show’s original track isn’t even ten years old yet. Thanks to the proliferating powers of the modern age, “Wagon Wheel” has already become a chestnut – so much so that any new recording of it is bound to feel a little stale, even a long-overdue FM bid like this one.
It doesn’t help that the talented Rucker turns in an unusually bloodless vocal. And it almost kills it that labelmates Lady Antebellum join in on the chorus. For all their skill with pop harmony, the trio sounds lost trying to navigate this rootsier ‘grass-folk territory, with poor Hillary Scott winding up particularly sour in the final mix.
But Frank Rogers’ production retains many of the original’s simple charms, and ultimately the song itself still shines through. And it’s a classic song: simple, vivid, instantly singable, lovingly stitched together from a Bob Dylan bootleg ditty. If nothing else, it sets a good example for country music in 2013, and
its surefire success at retail may inspire a few imitators – which, as Ketch Secor showed us when he first mined that bootleg, is not always such a bad thing.
The list of nominees for the 46th annual Country Music Association Awards has been released. Eric Church had a big breakthrough this past year, and such is reflected in the nominee list – Church leads the pack with five nominations. Power couple Blake Shelton and Miranda Lambert follow with four each, including a shared Song of the Year nod for their co-write “Over You.”
What’s your take on this year’s field of CMA nominees? Whose nominations were deserved, and whose were not? Who got snubbed? Share your thoughts in the comments section.
The live presentation airs Thursday, November 1 at 8pm Eastern on ABC-TV. The Country Universe Staff Picks & Predictions will be released the week of the show. Feel free to join us on show night for some live-blogging fun!
Entertainer of the Year
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift
Who’s in: Kenny Chesney
Who’s out: Keith Urban
No real surprises here. This year we swapped out Urban for Chesney, but all of these nominees have been here at least once before.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Who’s in: Kelly Clarkson
Who’s out: Sara Evans
Well, I was hoping for some new blood in this category, and that’s definitely what I got. Pop crossover star Kelly Clarkson scores her first nomination in the Female Vocalist field, displacing Sara Evans. There will likely be some amount of upset over Clarkson receiving such an accolade, as she had one #21-peaking country hit in the past year with “Mr. Know It All,” but has yet to release a full-length country album. And…that makes her one of the top five leading female vocalists in the country format? Okay…
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Who’s in: Luke Bryan, Eric Church
Who’s out: Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley
Bryan and Church’s recent career strides are rewarded
with their first nominations in the always-competitive Male Vocalist race.
Vocal Group of the Year
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Zac Brown Band
Who’s in: Eli Young Band
Who’s out: Rascal Flatts (!!!)
Eli Young Band scores a pair of huge radio hits, and thus squeezes out a former staple of the Vocal Group race.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Big & Rich
Love and Theft
Sugarland
The Civil Wars
Thompson Square
Who’s in: Big & Rich, Love and Theft
Who’s out: Montgomery Gentry, Steel Magnolia
New Artist of the Year
Lee Brice
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Who’s in: Lee Brice, Brantley Gilbert, Hunter Hayes, Love and Theft
Who’s out: The Band Perry (won), Luke Bryan, Eric Church, Chris Young (So, everyone except Thompson Square)
Album of the Year (Awarded to artist and producer)
Luke Bryan, Tailgates and Tanlines Produced by Jeff Stevens and Mark Bright
Eric Church, Chief Produced by Jay Joyce
Miranda Lambert, Four the Record Produced by Frank Liddell, Chuck Ainlay, and Glenn Worf
Dierks Bentley, Home Produced by Brett Beavers, Luke Wooten, and Jon Randall Stewart
Lady Antebellum, Own the Night Produced by Paul Worley and Lady Antebellum
Song of the Year (Awarded to songwriters)
Eli Young Band, “Even if It Breaks Your Heart”
Written by Will Hoge and Eric Paslay
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Written by Dave Barnes
Dierks Bentley, “Home”
Written by Dierks Bentley, Dan Wilson and Brett Beavers
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Written by Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Written by Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell
Single of the Year (Awarded to artist and producer)
Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem”
Produced by Michael Knox
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Produced by Scott Hendricks
Dierks Bentley, “Home”
Produced by Brett Beavers and Luke Wooten
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Produced by Jay Joyce
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Produced by Jay Joyce
Musical Event of the Year
Alan Jackson and Zac Brown Band, “Dixie Highway”
Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw, “Feel Like a Rock Star”
Willie Nelson featuring Snoop Dogg, Kris Kristofferson and Jamey Johnson, “Roll Me Up and Smoke Me When I Die”
Taylor Swift featuring the Civil Wars, “Safe and Sound”
Lionel Richie and Darius Rucker, “Stuck on You”
Music Video of the Year (Awarded to artist and director)
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Directed by Peter Zavadil
Kenny Chesney, “Come Over”
Directed by Shaun Silva
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Directed by Trey Fanjoy
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Directed by Declan Whitebloom
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Directed by Michael Salomon
Musician of the Year
Sam Bush
Paul Franklin
Dann Huff
Brent Mason
Mac McAnally
Darius Rucker – the former Blowfish with the strong distinctive voice, and now a streak of six Top 3 country hits thanks to a reliable strategy of playing it safe. The #17-peaking “I Got Nothin’” may have interrupted Rucker’s hot streak for now, but his new release “True Believers” should be just mediocre enough to get him back into the automatic add club.
Lyrically, “True Believers” scans and typical radio fodder in the tradition of “Alright” and “This.” Still, one encouraging sign is that Rucker sings with a greater degree of conviction than in past efforts, as even some of Rucker’s better material has often
been weighed down by sleepy performances. He also has a more compelling melody to work with this time around. If a crisp, unobtrusive arrangement were to bring up the rear, then that could potentially have allowed the melody and performance to transcend the disposable lyrics.
Only no such luck. Rucker’s voice is marred by the usual spit-shine wall-of-sound Nashville production, thoroughly blocking the connection with the listener, and hindering what otherwise might have been a qualified success. Thus, “True Believers” fails to connect beyond surface level.
If there’s a compelling country artist lurking beneath all that mainstream polish, we have yet to see it rise to the surface. Here’s hoping that this isn’t the best his upcoming third Nashville album has to offer.
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