This year’s ACM Awards were mediocre and broverwhemingly male-centric, despite women winning most of the major awards. As with last fall’s CMA show, the best moment was the final one, when George Strait won Entertainer of the Year.
Here’s a rundown of all the major winners:
Entertainer of the Year
Luke Bryan
Miranda Lambert
Blake Shelton
George Strait
Taylor Swift
George Strait winning at the ACMs this year was even more surprising than at the CMAs last year, given how the fan-voted element of this award has favored stars with young fanbases in previous years. King George, indeed. – KJC
While it’s disheartening to see Strait’s mainstream support dwindling, it’s great to see the fans come through for King George. – BF
Even if Strait did unintentionally but hilariously leave Miranda Lambert hanging on her attempted hi-five, it was nice to see the genuine support for Strait’s win among the other artists in attendance. Too bad radio seems to have turned their back on him. - JK
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean
Lee Brice
Luke Bryan
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
A repeat win for Jason Aldean helped both hosts go home empty handed, despite the big years both Bryan and Shelton had. – KJC
Female Vocalist of the Year
Sheryl Crow
Miranda Lambert
Kacey Musgraves
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Has there ever been a female vocalist that the ACMs loved more? Lambert’s fifth consecutive victory snaps Reba McEntire’s four in a row from 1985-1988, though she’d return to the winner’s circle three more times in the nineties. But even McEntire didn’t dominate the other categories the way Lambert’s been doing. – KJC
Lambert officially owns this category for a half-decade. Can we please get a shake-up in the Female Vocalist race next year? – BF
As I said on twitter: If she’s in the building, Trisha Yearwood is the Best Female Vocalist (unless Connie Smith is also in the building, in which case Trisha would be runner-up). End of discussion. – JK
Vocal Duo of the Year
Big & Rich
Dan + Shay
Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Florida Georgia Line had the biggest year – actually, the only big year – of all the nominees, making their victory the least surprising win of the night. – KJC
Congratulations to Florida Georgia Line on their win for (Only Significantly Successful) Vocal Duo of the Year. – BF
Vocal Group of the Year
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
The Band Perry
Zac Brown Band
The Band Perry won their first Vocal Group award, with all the votes in before a confetti backlash was able to sway the tally. – KJC
New Artist of the Year
Brett Eldredge
Justin Moore
Kip Moore
Two Moores and a Brett walk into an ACM ceremony… – KJC
Album of the Year
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story…
Luke Bryan, Crash My Party
Florida Georgia Line, Here’s to the Good Times
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
With the Grammys picking Musgraves and the CMAs picking Shelton, the ACMs broke the tie, picking the best album over the biggest. Good call. – KJC
Musgraves’ well-deserved victory restores some ACM credibility, though it is ironic that she was the only nominee whom the producers did not grant a performance slot. – BF
She won for Album of the Year and co-wrote the winner of Single of the Year, so we can’t necessarily blame the ACM voters for Musgraves’ lack of a performance: Clearly, the producers of the show had adopted an ethos of “Bros Before Women Who Make Good Music.” – JK
Single Record of the Year
Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise”
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
True, a Song of the Year victory would’ve been sweeter. But Lambert’s single was still the best of the five, and gave her a third win in this category in four years. That feat was last accomplished by Willie Nelson, who picked up three in four years back in the eighties, for “Always on My Mind”, “To All the Girls I’ve Loved Before”, and “The Highwayman.” – KJC
The “Cruise” phenomenon promised to be hard to beat, but fortunately the voters chose to honor the best record over the biggest. – BF
I really wouldn’t have any reservations at all with Miranda having won this category three times for “Kerosene,” “Gunpowder and Lead,” and “The House That Built Me.” Hers was easily the best nominee of this line-up, though. – JK
Song of the Year
“Every Storm (Runs Out of Rain)” – Gary Allan, Hillary Lindsey, Matthew Warren
“I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Jimmy Yeary
“Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Deric Ruttan
“Wagon Wheel” – Bob Dylan, Ketch Secor
With Grammy winner “Merry Go ‘Round” not in the running, the ACM chose to honor last fall’s CMA winner, “I Drive Your Truck.” – KJC
Props to Lee Brice for letting the songwriters have the spotlight for this win. Considering the Song of the Year award purports to honor the year’s best songwriting, it’s been disconcerting that recent years have seen the ACMs shifting the focus from the songwriters to the artists. – BF
Of note: Women won for Album of the Year, Single of the Year, and were two of the three co-writers of the Song of the Year. Yet the genre’s regressive gender politics are as problematic right now as at any point in recent memory. When will we reach a true tipping point with this? – JK
Video of the Year
The Band Perry, “Better Dig Two”
Kacey Musgraves, “Blowin’ Smoke”
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Carrie Underwood, “Two Black Cadillacs”
The high-octane collaboration between these three superstars earned several nominations, but their only win came in this category. – KJC
Vocal Event of the Year
Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies and Friends, “Boys ‘Round Here”
Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly, “Cruise” (Remix)
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert, “We Were Us”
Betting against Miranda Lambert at the ACM Awards is starting to look like a fool’s wager. This is her first win in this category, and with the other awards she won last night, her total ACM count is now at fifteen. – KJC
And they’re back: The 2014 ACM Awards air live on Sunday at 7 p.m. CST, hosted by Blake Shelton and Luke Bryan. They’re sure to be enraging or amusing, depending on your bro-country meter. In the meantime, we’ve picked and predicted the awards below – chime in with your thoughts!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win
Luke Bryan
Miranda Lambert
Blake Shelton
George Strait - KJC, TS, BF
Taylor Swift
Will Win
Luke Bryan - KJC, TS, BF, JK
Miranda Lambert
Blake Shelton
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Ben: No, Strait didn’t have the biggest year, but he’s still the only nominee whom I can truly endorse as the face of country music in 2014. At this point the Carrie Underwood snubs have ceased to surprise me.
Jonathan: If his fans’ votes were enough to give him the surprise win last year, there’s no reason to think Bryan won’t repeat, given that his profile only seems to have grown throughout 2013. All five of the nominees are equally sort-of deserving of a win based on relative metrics of commercial stats and quality of their output, while the most obvious, most deserving winner of this award was yet again left off the ballot.
Tara: Strait’s putting on a heck of a farewell tour, and I appreciate the CMA voters for recognizing that last year. I’m doubtful he’ll have that effect on the ACM voter demographic, though; this one’s Bryan’s to lose … but really, truly, belongs to Underwood.
Kevin: Strait’s victory at last year’s CMA Awards was the highlight of the night. But I agree with the consensus. Fan votes have this thing locked up for Bryan.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win
Jason Aldean – TS
Lee Brice
Luke Bryan – KJC
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Will Win
Jason Aldean
Lee Brice
Luke Bryan – KJC, TS, BF, JK
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Ben: Bryan seems to have had the biggest year, but I’m not personally invested in any of these choices.
Jonathan: I’d be more excited about seeing new blood in this line-up if I were in any way impressed with Brice. Just looking at mainstream stars who had hits during the eligibility period, a superior slate of nominees could be culled from Gary Allan, Dierks Bentley, Eric Church, Easton Corbin, Brad Paisley, Darius Rucker, and Chris Young.
Tara: I’ll be damned if Aldean hasn’t grown on me over the past few years. His material is still too uneven for me to get behind, but I’ve come to begrudgingly respect his appeal. My guess is his crown will go to Bryan, though.
Kevin: I like the fact that after the endless streak from Paisley, we’ve gotten different winners in the past two years. The only two who haven’t won yet are Brice and Bryan. The latter is the only one at the level to warrant a win at this time.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win
Sheryl Crow
Miranda Lambert
Kacey Musgraves – KJC, BF
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood – TS
Will Win
Sheryl Crow
Miranda Lambert – TS, BF, JK
Kacey Musgraves – KJC
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Ben: Lambert’s status as one of this year’s leading nominees indicates that voters still have the hots for her. Her reign will end eventually, but I won’t bet on it happening this time around.
Jonathan: Brandy Clark LeAnn Rimes Ashley Monroe Kellie Pickler Julie Roberts Holly Williams No? On the brightside, Crow managed to snag the fifth slot instead of either of Blake Shelton’s overpraised “The Voice” winners, but that’s really where the good news ends. It seems premature for Musgraves to win this award, and I’m honestly still not all that enamored of her beyond “Follow Your Arrow.” I’ve been pulling for Underwood of late, but both she and Swift ended this eligibility period with two of their worst singles, so I’d have reservations about seeing either of them win. Lambert seems poised to repeat based on her haul of nominations; as fun as “Mama’s Broken Heart” is, I’d feel better about this streak of hers had it spanned her far superior Crazy Ex-Girlfriend and Revolution eras.
Tara: I’m sticking with Underwood for one more cycle, mostly because Musgraves’ charming “Follow Your Arrow” didn’t really make its (relatively small) impact until after the eligibility period. It’s hard to swallow how many of these awards Lambert is racking up between the ACM’s and the CMA’s, but I suspect the trend will continue.
Kevin: Go big or go home. Musgraves is the ACM’s opportunity to definitively position itself as the more substantive country awards show, a status they’ve been flirting with as the CMA’s have moved in the opposite direction. I think she’ll pull it off, and I’ll be happy to see her do it.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win
Big & Rich
Dan + Shay
Florida Georgia Line - KJC
Love and Theft
Thompson Square – TS, JK
Will Win
Big & Rich
Dan + Shay
Florida Georgia Line – KJC, TS, BF, JK
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Ben: This category remains lame and pointless as ever, but at least I can give credit for the fact that they finally stopped shoehorning in Sugarland.
Jonathan: Thompson Square is the only one of these five acts who released a single that I didn’t absolutely hate during the past year. While that’s an accomplishment of sorts, it’s hardly one that should keep this category from being combined with the Vocal Group race.
Tara: I don’t mind Thompson Square. That’s the best thing I can say about this line-up.
Kevin: I’m not really a fan of any of these acts, so again, I’ll root for variety. Thompson Square has two wins already. Florida Georgia Line had a great year. Give them their due, and then perhaps we can forget they ever happened.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town – TS, JK
The Band Perry
Zac Brown Band – KJC
Will Win
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
The Band Perry – KJC, TS, JK, BJF
Zac Brown Band
Jonathan: I couldn’t vote against Little Big Town during a year when they released “Sober,” but Zac Brown Band continues to release solid material and remains overdue for recognition. The Band Perry have a run of huge hit singles– the first two of which were as clever and progressive as anything country radio has touched in a minute– to their credit during the eligibility period. Momentum seems to be on their side at the moment, and I think they’ll score the night’s only real upset.
Tara: The Band Perry are walking a skillful line between commercial and creative, and I think they’ll be rewarded. As for me, I’m clinging to Little Big Town at least until the exquisite “Sober” becomes old news.
Kevin: I think that The Band Perry is best positioned to win, but Zac Brown Band is the most overdue.
Ben: I’m torn between picking The Band Perry for having had such a strong year, and picking Little Big Town for releasing one of my favorite singles of 2013. But despite Little Big Town’s recent hot streak, I expect The Band Perry’s commercial stats will net them their first win in this category.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win
Brett Eldredge
Justin Moore
Kip Moore – KJC, TS, BF
Will Win
Brett Eldredge
Justin Moore – TS, JK, BF
Kip Moore
Jonathan: Of these three, Justin Moore has been building his fanbase for the longest period of time, so it seems logical that he’ll win based on the fan vote.
Tara: I’ve been in Kip Moore’s corner for a few years now, but doubt he’ll take this. True story: Sometimes I think Justin Moore and Brice are the same person.
Album of the Year
Should Win
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story…
Luke Bryan, Crash My Party
Florida Georgia Line, Here’s to the Good Times
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – KJC, TS, BF, JK
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Will Win
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story… JK
Luke Bryan, Crash My Party
Florida Georgia Line, Here’s to the Good Times
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – TS, KJC, BF
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Ben: Musgraves is the only one deserving of a nomination, let alone a win.
Jonathan: 2013 was an extraordinary year for country music, and that is in no way reflected in this appalling slate of nominees. Musgraves’ album is the only one that belongs in any conversation about the best of contemporary country. But there seems to be some growing consensus that Shelton is owed something more than his own celebrity status, so he’s the most likely winner.
Tara: A part of me thinks the voters will ride the 2013 Musgraves fan train and use this as an opportunity to show some relevance. But that’s a gamble of a guess, considering the atrocious other nominees.
Kevin: They’ve been more supportive of good art in this category than the CMA’s lately, so I’m thinking Musgraves has this wrapped up, and the ACM will be the tiebreaker between the Grammys and the CMA’s.
Single Record of the Year
Should Win
Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise”
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – KJC, BF, TS, JK
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
Will Win
Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise” – TS, BF, JK
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – KJC
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
Jonathan: A case could be made for any of these five singles actually winning, but I’ll let my pessimism about the overall nominations carry the most weight here and say that “Cruise” will win. “Mama’s Broken Heart” is only Lambert’s fifth-or-sixth-best single, but it’s easily the class of this field.
Tara: “Cruise” is too big for the voters to ignore, and that’s both depressing and funny. I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Rucker or Brice singles won, but Lambert’s “Mama’s Broken Heart” is clearly a cut above the rest with its sharp songwriting and spitting, bullet of a performance.
Kevin: Love the Lambert track, but the star power of McGraw/Swift/Urban seems hard to deny.
Song of the Year
Should Win
“Every Storm (Runs Out of Rain)” – Gary Allan, Hillary Lindsey, Matthew Warren
“I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Jimmy Yeary
“Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Deric Ruttan
“Wagon Wheel” – Bob Dylan, Ketch Secor
Jonathan: “Wagon Wheel” has become as close to a standard as any song in recent memory, and that generally doesn’t happen just by accident. This is one of the few times when Brandy Clark would be my second choice for a winner. The success of “I Drive Your Truck” propelled Brice to a surprising haul of nominations this year, though, and it’s clear that the song has resonated with a sizable bloc of voters.
Tara: This isn’t an awful line-up. I personally get the most kicks out of “Mama’s Broken Heart,” but I could make a case for all five songs, even the somewhat underrated “Mine Would Be You.” I have a gut feeling “I Drive Your Truck” will win on emotional heft, though.
Kevin: Perhaps it’s overly wishful thinking, but with “Merry Go Round” not in the running, voters have a clear path to rewarding both Musgraves and Clark, along with sending some more hardware Lambert’s way.
Video of the Year
Should Win
The Band Perry, “Better Dig Two”
Kacey Musgraves, “Blowin’ Smoke”
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Carrie Underwood, “Two Black Cadillacs” – KJC, TS, BF, JK
Will Win
The Band Perry, “Better Dig Two”
Kacey Musgraves, “Blowin’ Smoke”
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – BF
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – JK, TS
Carrie Underwood, “Two Black Cadillacs” – KJC
Jonathan: The video for “Blowin’ Smoke” looks like a reel of B-roll footage from Rob Zombie’s The Devil’s Rejects, which was an interesting aesthetic choice but was still nowhere near as fun as the Christine homage in “Two Black Cadillacs.”
Tara: I dig the tongue-in-cheek realism of Musgraves’ video and the whimsy of Lambert’s, but Underwood makes the most unexpected, imaginative choice.
Kevin: They’ve got to give Underwood something, right? I’m not a huge fan of the video, really. The song is awfully suggestive, but doesn’t come right out and say that the two ladies killed the guy. So the video takes that opening and decides, “The car did it!” But at least it’s a video. The others are just YouTube fodder.
Vocal Event of the Year
Should Win
Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies and Friends, “Boys ‘Round Here”
Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly, “Cruise” (Remix)
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – KJC, JK, BF
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel” – TS
Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert, “We Were Us
Will Win
Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies and Friends, “Boys ‘Round Here”
Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly, “Cruise” (Remix)
Tim McGraw featuring Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – KJC, BF
Darius Rucker featuring Lady Antebellum, “Wagon Wheel”
Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert, “We Were Us – TS, JK
Jonathan: Hillary Scott’s shrill attempts at singing harmony are the worst part of Rucker’s cover of “Wagon Wheel,” and hopefully the two hip-hop-circa-2003-inspired singles will split votes. “We Were Us” is the worst sounding track of the five– which is really saying something about how we’ve forever lost the Loudness War– but it seems like Lambert is going to have a big night.
Tara: I’ll go with “Wagon Wheel” by default, though its collaboration does it absolutely no favors, as Jonathan said. Even still, it’s far above these other middling to obnoxious (so loud!) singles.
Kevin: Fair warning. If Florida Georgia Line/Nelly win, I’m out. Done. No live blog for me after that!
The Country Universe staff has picked and predicted the 2014 Grammy Awards below, strange bunch that they are. Chime in with your thoughts, and catch the show on Sunday at 7 p.m. CST.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Sara Bareilles, The Blessed Unrest
Daft Punk, Random Access Memories - Kevin
Kendrick Lamar, good kid m.A.A.d. city – Jonathan
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, The Heist
Taylor Swift, Red
Will Win:
Sara Bareilles, The Blessed Unrest
Daft Punk, Random Access Memories - Kevin, Jonathan
Kendrick Lamar, good kid m.A.A.d. city
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, The Heist
Taylor Swift, Red
Kevin: With electronic music so mainstream now, it would be wise and timely for NARAS to acknowledge the excellent comeback of one of its pioneers, especially as the year’s best country albums (Brandy Clark, Kacey Musgraves, Ashley Monroe, etc.) and the year’s best rap album (Kanye West) didn’t score nominations in the top category.
Jonathan: Lamar and Daft Punk would both be worthy winners of an award that rarely seems to go to one. Hip-hop and R&B have notoriously struggled in the general field in recent years, so Daft Punk’s cachet with the rock contingent should give them the edge over Swift, who didn’t score the across-the-board support many were expecting from her this year. If the voters are feeling especially timid, though, watch out for “Brave” yelper Bareilles as a spoiler.
Record of the Year
Should Win:
“Blurred Lines” – Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell Williams
“Get Lucky” – Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams – Kevin, Jonathan, Tara
“Locked Out of Heaven” – Bruno Mars
“Radioactive” – Imagine Dragons
“Royals” – Lorde – Dan
Will Win:
“Blurred Lines” – Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell Williams – Tara
“Get Lucky” – Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams
“Locked Out of Heaven” – Bruno Mars – Kevin, Jonathan, Ben
“Radioactive” – Imagine Dragons
“Royals” – Lorde - Dan
Kevin: “Get Lucky” was retro and modern at the same time, featuring the charismatic Williams. That guy makes everything better. I’m guessing Mars will get it because he’s the most established and arguably is overdue for a big win.
Dan: “Royals” was the most refreshing to me. Winner feels like a real toss-up, though.
Jonathan: Prevailing logic as to why hip-hop tracks have fared so poorly in this category is that NARAS voters are still hell-bent on rewarding live instrumentation, so it’s hard to imagine something as spare as “Royals” winning, even if it’s the most distinctive choice. “Get Lucky” would get my vote, but look for Bruno Mars to head off to his Super Bowl Halftime gig with some new hardware in hand to reward his Police homage.
Tara: Lots of atmospheric tunes here. “Get Lucky” seems like the one that will feel no less groovy in ten years time. I wouldn’t put any money on it, but I could see the voters ignoring controversy and rewarding the biggest hit of the year.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“Just Give Me a Reason” – Jeff Bhasker, P!nk, and Nate Reuss – Kevin, Ben
“Locked out of Heaven” – Phillip Lawrence, Ari Levine, and Bruno Mars
“Roar” – Lukasz Gottwald, Max Martin, Bonnie McKee, Katy Perry, and Henry Walter
“Royals” – Joel Little and Lorde – Jonathan
“Same Love” – Ben Haggerty, Mary Lambert, Ryan Lewis, and Curtis Mayfield – Dan, Tara
Will Win:
“Just Give Me a Reason” – Jeff Bhasker, P!nk, and Nate Reuss - Kevin, Ben, Dan
“Locked out of Heaven” – Phillip Lawrence, Ari Levine, and Bruno Mars
“Roar” – Lukasz Gottwald, Max Martin, Bonnie McKee, Katy Perry, and Henry Walter
“Royals” – Joel Little and Lorde
“Same Love” – Ben Haggerty, Mary Lambert, Ryan Lewis, and Curtis Mayfield - Jonathan, Tara
Kevin: P!nk is long overdue for a top tier award, and her co-write with previous winner Nate Reuss was, in my opinion, the best duet in a year chock full of ‘em.
Dan: The Macklemore & Ryan Lewis composition is somehow the most personal of the group even as it makes the biggest, broadest statement. And the climactic third verse still gives me chills.
Jonathan: I don’t care that Kacey Musgraves is a fan of hers: Perry’s nomination is indefensible, with four adults credited on a song that rhymes “zero” with “hero” and that allows pop music’s least-capable vocalist to scream a series of self-help cliches. The broad, even-in-the-flyover-states popularity of “Same Love,” though, gives the voters a safe opportunity to make a political statement and to recognize one of the year’s breakthrough acts.
Tara: It’s a toss-up between “Royals” and “Same Love” for me in terms of substance and purposeful songwriting, but I can’t ignore the chills I also get listening to the latter. I agree with Jonathan that this is a win-win way for the voters to make a statement.
Best New Artist
Should Win:
James Blake
Kendrick Lamar – Jonathan
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis – Dan
Kacey Musgraves – Kevin, Ben, Tara
Ed Sheeran
Will Win:
James Blake
Kendrick Lamar
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis - Dan, Kevin, Tara
Kacey Musgraves - Jonathan, Ben
Ed Sheeran
Kevin: Gotta root for the home team. I think Macklemore & Lewis will win, though.
Dan: For once, this category is hot across the board; you could make a great argument for any of these folks. Personally, I find Macklemore & Ryan Lewis to be the most exciting.
Ben: I don’t always gravitate toward the country-affiliated New Artist nominee, but then again it’s rare for me to be so invested in a country newcomer’s artistry as I am with Musgraves. To see her win would make my heart happy.
Jonathan: Lamar is making the most compelling music of this lot, but this category’s history dictates that it’s Musgraves’ award to lose. Macklemore & Ryan Lewis pose a real threat, but being the only woman nominated plays in Musgraves’ favor.
Tara: It’s hard to tell if Musgraves’ profile outside of the country sphere is big enough to nab her this one, but I’d be happy if it did. I hope she keeps the face in check if it doesn’t, though.
Best Country Album
Should Win:
Jason Aldean, Night Train
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – Dan, Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story
Taylor Swift, Red
Will Win:
Jason Aldean, Night Train
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story – Sam
Taylor Swift, Red - Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Kevin: Don’t see how Taylor doesn’t win, though Musgraves made the best album by a decent margin, regardless of how country any of ‘em are.
Dan: Here’s the most logical place to reward Musgraves, though I guess Red’s nomination in the general Album of the Year field makes it the frontrunner in this category. And that’s fine; whatever. I’ve been hoping for Swift’s albums to be grouped under “Pop” at the Grammys since Fearless. It ain’t gonna happen.
Ben: Should Win – easy choice. Will Win – also an easy choice.
Sam: Just to be contrary, I think Shelton’s built up enough recognition with his “The Voice” gig that he has name recognition from voters who know next to nothing about country music. The fact that it was a terrible, terrible album doesn’t really matter.
Jonathan: No, Red shouldn’t be nominated in the Country field, so I wouldn’t vote for it on principle, even though its best tracks are far and away the strongest material in this line-up. NARAS has no qualms about rewarding pop crossover albums here, so it would be a huge upset were Swift to lose. When we were all prepping our ballots for our year-end countdowns, I had Musgraves’ album at #38. It’s good and I certainly understand why it has as many fans as it does, but I’m just not as bullish on it as others seem to be. Still, it would be my personal choice from this paltry line-up, since Aldean’s, McGraw’s, and Shelton’s albums ranged from pedestrian to downright unlistenable.
Tara: Seems like an easy Swift win, but I get where Sam’s head is at re: Shelton. There’s no question Musgraves made the best music, though, and what a shame she’s not surrounded by her peers who made even better music.
Best Country Solo Performance
Should Win:
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Hunter Hayes, “I Want Crazy”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Dan, Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
Blake Shelton, “Mine Would Be You”
Will Win:
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Hunter Hayes, “I Want Crazy”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” - Dan, Kevin, Ben, Jonathan, Sam, Tara
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
Blake Shelton, “Mine Would Be You”
Kevin: Lambert is the only female and the only previous winner. I’d be shocked if she lost.
Ben: To me, Lambert’s performance alone claims the distinction of making an already-great song even better.
Sam: This could be one of those rare occasions where the best nominee actually wins a Grammy. I think Hunter Hayes is a long shot, as most Grammy voters are not teenaged girls.
Jonathan: What Kevin said. Also, he’s a talented instrumentalist, but the Grammy voters’ fascination with Hunter Hayes is baffling.
Tara: Lambert’s is the most distinct and impactful performance here, but I’ll throw in my defense of Hayes’ “I Want Crazy,” a song and vocal that’s as breathlessly exuberant as Keith Urban’s best work.
Best Country Duo/Group Performance
Should Win:
The Civil Wars, “From This Valley”
Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush”
Little Big Town, “Your Side of the Bed” – Jonathan
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton, “You Can’t Make Old Friends” – Kevin, Ben, Tara
Will Win:
The Civil Wars, “From This Valley”
Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush”
Little Big Town, “Your Side of the Bed”
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” - Kevin, Ben, Tara
Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton, “You Can’t Make Old Friends” - Jonathan, Sam
Kevin: The high octane collaboration of McGraw/Swift/Urban has been unstoppable thus far. Kudos to NARAS for noticing Rogers & Parton’s beautiful work, their best together since “Islands in the Stream.”
Ben: “You Can’t Make Old Friends” is enough to give many a longtime country music lover warm fuzzies, but the commercial clout of “Highway Don’t Care” may be too much to beat.
Sam: If you’re a Grammy voter and have to decide on a zillion categories, do you take the time to sit and listen to each nominee, or do you skim over the names and pick the ones you’re most familiar with? Kenny and Dolly for the win.
Jonathan: One of the strongest sets of nominees anywhere on the Grammy ballot this year. Little Big Town would get my vote so that they have a win for something besides “Pontoon” to their credit, but I think NARAS’ older voters will be swayed by the effortless charm of the Rogers and Parton duet.
Tara: I don’t love any of these except for the Rogers and Parton collaboration, as much as I wanted to embrace “Don’t Rush” (Kelly Clarkson! Vince Gill!). I think the middle-of-the-road McGraw / Swift / Urban song will win out, but here’s to hoping the voters act on warm fuzzies.
Best Country Song
Should Win:
“Begin Again” – Taylor Swift
“I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, and Jimmy Yeary
“Merry Go ‘Round” – Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves, and Josh Osborne - Ben
“Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Deric Ruttan
Kevin: Gotta root for the Brandy Clark co-write, which is conveniently the best composition anyway. Still, I think voters will use this category to acknowledge Musgraves for writing her own hit instead of Miranda’s.
Ben: I seem to be in the minority here, but I actually consider “Merry Go ‘Round” to be the finer of the two Musgraves co-writes – which is not to say that I don’t adore “Mama’s Broken Heart” or that I wouldn’t be thrilled to see Brandy Clark also gain a mantle decoration. This would seem a comfortable place for voters to acknowledge Musgraves – as well as a likely consolation prize should she lose Best New Artist – and like Kevin, I expect it will be for the hit she performed as well as wrote.
Sam: I’d just like to point out that this is an incredibly strong group of nominees and shows there is some substance to country music once you weed out all the tailgate songs.
Jonathan: Things could play out here in a similar fashion to the CMAs, with vote-splitting among the multiple nominations for Musgraves, McAnally, Alexander, and Harrington. That worked to the latter pair’s advantage at the CMAs, where “I Drive Your Truck” pulled off a surprise win, but Shelton’s powerballad could siphon votes from Brice’s hit this time. As much as I love the idea of Brandy Clark as a Grammy winner, I think the various vote-splits will allow one of Swift’s best-written songs to win.
Tara: As strong as Lambert’s spitfire performance is, I’d argue that the bones of “Mama’s Broken Heart” are even stronger. I’ve never been able to connect with “Merry Go Round” the way others have, but agree this is likely where the voters will single Musgraves out.
Best American Roots Song
Should Win:
“Build Me Up From Bones” – Sarah Jarosz – Jonathan
“Invisible” – Steve Earle
“Keep Your Dirty Lights On” – Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott – Kevin
“Love Has Come From You” – Edie Brickell and Steve Martin
“Shrimp Po-Boy, Dressed” – Allen Touissant
Will Win:
“Build Me Up From Bones” – Sarah Jarosz
“Invisible” – Steve Earle
“Keep Your Dirty Lights On” – Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott
“Love Has Come From You” – Edie Brickell and Steve Martin- Kevin, Jonathan
“Shrimp Po-Boy, Dressed” – Allen Touissant
Kevin: Can voters resist Steve Martin? If they do, I hope it’s to acknowledge again the unique talents of Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott. They are so good together.
Jonathan: Jarosz draws favorable comparisons to Alison Krauss, and, if ever there were a surefire way to appeal to Grammy voters, that would be it. She’d get my vote for the exceptional title track from her third album, though, like Kevin, I’m a big fan of O’Brien’s and Scott’s work together. Martin’s charm and name recognition are likely to give his duet with erstwhile New Bohemian Brickell the edge here.
Best Americana Album
Should Win:
Emmylou Harris and Rodney Crowell, Old Yellow Moon – Kevin, Jonathan, Sam
Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Love Has Come For You
Buddy Miller and Jim Lauderdale, Buddy and Jim
Mavis Staples, One True Vine
Allen Touissant, Songbook
Will Win:
Emmylou Harris and Rodney Crowell, Old Yellow Moon - Kevin, Ben
Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Love Has Come For You - Jonathan
Buddy Miller and Jim Lauderdale, Buddy and Jim
Mavis Staples, One True Vine
Allen Touissant, Songbook - Sam
Kevin: Martin & Brickell might be the most logical choice, but in a category stacked with veterans, Harris & Crowell must be tempting to voters who are long time fans of both.
Sam: The fact that Jason Isbell wasn’t nominated here shows that Americana music has a long way to go before Grammy voters stop using it at the place where all veteran singer/songwriters end up. As for this year, Allen Touissant is older and has past Grammy love, so my money is on him.
Jonathan: The strongest, most vital year for Americana music in a decade is rewarded with a staid slate of nominees. Old Yellow Moon is the obvious standout and could very well win, but I think Martin’s well-received album with Brickell has the edge based on Martin’s celebrity.
Best Bluegrass Album
Should Win:
The Boxcars, It’s Just a Road
Dailey & Vincent, Brothers of the Highway – Jonathan
Della Mae, This World Oft Can Be
James King, Three Chords and the Truth
Del McCoury Band, The Streets of Baltimore
Will Win:
The Boxcars, It’s Just a Road
Dailey & Vincent, Brothers of the Highway
Della Mae, This World Oft Can Be
James King, Three Chords and the Truth
Del McCoury Band, The Streets of Baltimore - Kevin, Jonathan, Ben
Kevin: Haven’t heard these albums enough to have a personal favorite, but I think the Del McCoury Band’s name recognition will power it to a win.
Jonathan: Both the Del McCoury Band and Dailey & Vincent are nominated for some of their very best work, and either would be a richly deserving winner. Della Mae have a fairly vocal fanbase, but it isn’t clear if that fanbase overlaps with the Grammy voter bloc enough to unseat one of the two bigger-name acts.
Best Folk Album
Should Win:
Guy Clark, My Favorite Picture of You – Kevin, Ben
The Greencards, Sweetheart of the Sun
Sarah Jarosz, Build Me Up From Bones – Jonathan
The Milk Carton Kids, The Ash & Clay
Various Artists, They all Played for Us: Arhoolie Records 50th Anniversary Celebration
Will Win:
Guy Clark, My Favorite Picture of You - Kevin, Ben, Jonathan
The Greencards, Sweetheart of the Sun
Sarah Jarosz, Build Me Up From Bones
The Milk Carton Kids, The Ash & Clay
Various Artists, They all Played for Us: Arhoolie Records 50th Anniversary Celebration
Kevin: Sentimental favorite who also put out a great album? How can they deny Guy Clark?
Jonathan: I’m tempted to pick the Arhoolie Records without having heard it, simply because it just seems like something the idiosyncratic Grammys would go for. Clark is a safer bet for his beautifully observed album, while the ascendant Jarosz would get my vote for her career-best work.
The nominations for the 56th Annual Grammy Awards have been announced. Taylor Swift has the top nomination connected to country music, earning her second nomination for Album of the Year. She took home the award four years ago for Fearless.
Here are the general category nominees, along with all country and country-related categories:
Album of the Year
Sara Bareilles, The Blessed Unrest
Daft Punk, Random Access Memories
Kendrick Lamar, good kid m.A.A.d. city
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, The Heist
Taylor Swift, Red
If Taylor Swift wins, she will be the first country-related artist in history to win the category twice with individual projects. Alison Krauss also has two victories, one for her collaboration with Robert Plant (Raising Sand, 2009), and another for her contributions to the O Brother Where Art Thou soundtrack (2002.) The award has only been won by country artists in two other years: Glen Campbell for By the Time I Get to Phoenix (1968), and the Dixie Chicks for Taking the Long Way (2007).
Record of the Year
“Blurred Lines” – Robin Thicke featuring T.I. and Pharrell Williams
“Get Lucky” – Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams
“Locked Out of Heaven” – Bruno Mars
“Radioactive” – Imagine Dragons
“Royals” – Lorde
For the third time in the last eight years, no country or country-related records make the cut. Only four country-related winners have triumphed in this category, but three of them have been in the last few years. Olivia Newton-John won for “I Honestly Love You” in 1975, followed much later by the Dixie Chicks for “Not Ready to Make Nice” in 2006; Robert Plant & Alison Krauss for “Please Read the Letter” in 2009; and Lady Antebellum for “Need You Now” in 2011.
Song of the Year
“Just Give Me a Reason” – Jeff Bhasker, P!nk, and Nate Reuss
“Locked out of Heaven” – Phillip Lawrence, Ari Levine, and Bruno Mars
“Roar” – Lukasz Gottwald, Max Martin, Bonnie McKee, Katy Perry, and Henry Walter
“Royals” – Joel Little and Lorde
“Same Love” – Ben Haggerty, Mary Lambert, Ryan Lewis, and Curtis Mayfield
For the third straight year, country is shut out of the top songwriting category, a streak that began after the writers of Lady Antebellum’s “Need You Now” won in 2011.
Best New Artist
James Blake
Kendrick Lamar
Macklemore & Ryan Lewis
Kacey Musgraves
Ed Sheeran
Kacey Musgraves is the latest new artist to represent country music in this category, which has become a nearly annual occurrence since LeAnn Rimes was nominated and won back in 1997. Previous country winners also include Bobbie Gentry (1968), Carrie Underwood (2007) and Zac Brown Band (2010).
Best Country Album
Jason Aldean, Night Train
Tim McGraw, Two Lanes of Freedom
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park
Blake Shelton, Based on a True Story
Taylor Swift, Red
Despite the presence of four big, established stars, only Taylor Swift has actually earned a victory in this category. She won in 2010 for Fearless. She contended again in 2012 with Speak Now, which lost to repeating victors Lady Antebellum, who won two years in a row for Need You Now (2011) and Own the Night (2012). Kacey Musgraves earns a nomination for her debut album, the first artist do so since 2005, when Gretchen Wilson contended with Here For the Party.
Best Country Solo Performance
Lee Brice, “I Drive Your Truck”
Hunter Hayes, “I Want Crazy”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
Blake Shelton, “Mine Would Be You”
Since this category combined the solo categories into one, this award has been one by Taylor Swift (“Mean”) and Carrie Underwood (“Blown Away.”) Lambert is the only previous winner in a predecessor of this category.
Best Country Duo/Group Performance
The Civil Wars, “From This Valley”
Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush”
Little Big Town, “Your Side of the Bed”
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton, “You Can’t Make Old Friends”
There’s really only one hit here, but there are plenty of former Grammy winners scattered among this category. In case you’re wondering, the answer is no, they didn’t win a Grammy for “Islands in the Stream.”
Best Country Song
“Begin Again” – Taylor Swift
“I Drive Your Truck” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, and Jimmy Yeary
“Merry Go ‘Round” – Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves, and Josh Osborne
“Mine Would Be You” – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Deric Ruttan
It’s not too common for people to receive double nominations, but here there are four songwriters competing against themselves: Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Shane McAnally, and Kacey Musgraves.
Best American Roots Song
“Build Me Up From Bones” – Sarah Jarosz
“Invisible” – Steve Earle
“Keep Your Dirty Lights On” – Tim O’Brien and Darrell Scott
“Love Has Come From You” – Edie Brickell and Steve Martin
“Shrimp Po-Boy, Dressed” – Allen Touissant
This category is brand new this year, encompassing songs from all of the subcategories in the American Roots field: Americana, bluegrass, blues, folk, and regional roots music.
Best Americana Album
Emmylou Harris and Rodney Crowell, Old Yellow Moon
Steve Martin and Edie Brickell, Love Has Come For You
Buddy Miller and Jim Lauderdale, Buddy and Jim
Mavis Staples, One True Vine
Allen Touissant, Songbook
Collaborations dominate this category, which is populated with many previous Grammy winners. Emmylou Harris won this award twice, back when it was called Best Contemporary Folk Album.
Best Bluegrass Album
The Boxcars, It’s Just a Road
Dailey & Vincent, Brothers of the Highway
Della Mae, This World Oft Can Be
James King, Three Chords and the Truth
Del McCoury Band, The Streets of Baltimore
Del McCoury Band are the only returning victors in this category, winning back in 2006 for The Company We Keep. Perhaps because of the broad voter base, this category has been dominated by acts with explicit ties to country music, including multiple wins by Ricky Skaggs, Jim Lauderdale, and Alison Krauss & Union Station, and one-off victories by Patty Loveless and Dolly Parton. This year is the second in a row without crossover contenders; last year’s winner was the Steep Canyon Rangers for Nobody Knows You.
Best Folk Album
Guy Clark, My Favorite Picture of You
The Greencards, Sweetheart of the Sun
Sarah Jarosz, Build Me Up From Bones
The Milk Carton Kids, The Ash & Clay
Various Artists, They all Played for Us: Arhoolie Records 50th Anniversary Celebration
A tribute to Guy Clark earned a nomination in this category last year, and now Clark himself is in contention for the prize. None of the acts in contention have won in the folk fields before.
Also of note, the Pistol Annies set Annie Up earned nominations for engineer Chuck Ainlay and mastering engineer Bob Ludwig in the Best Engineered Album, Non-Classical category. It competes against Daft Punk, another album mastered by Ludwig, along with sets by Alice in Chains, Queens of the Stone Age, Andrew Duhon, and Madeline Payroux.
They’re as hope-dangling and ridiculous as they’ve ever been, those Country Music Association voters, and the CU staff has picked and predicted their 2013 awards below. Let us know what you think, and check back for our live blog on Wednesday at 7 p.m. CST!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Blake Shelton
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Will Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Blake Shelton – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Dan: Sadly, it’s become hard to care about the night’s biggest prize. Swift and Strait are the two I can stomach right now, and neither of them actually had much to do with the country scene this past year—the former because she was flexing her pop muscles, the latter because he’s winding down.
Ben: I want to care, but I really don’t. There’s only one artist whom I could have supported unequivocally, and she didn’t get a nomination.
Jonathan: The CMAs have a tendency to lag a few years behind peak commercial trends, so I think Bryan will have to wait another year or two before he takes this award. While Bryan, Aldean, and Shelton could split votes among the bro contingent (presumably, to the benefit of Strait), I think Shelton’s visibility will be enough to earn him another win here.
Tara: This was Carrie Underwood’s year. I’m angry, unsurprised and completely apathetic about the rest of these contenders.
Kevin: Shelton won last year and if anything, his star has only shone brighter this year. That being said, if I was a CMA voter, I’d leave this category blank. Carrie Underwood was this year’s Entertainer of the Year.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan – Kevin
Eric Church – Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Dan
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Will Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan - Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Eric Church
Blake Shelton – Kevin
Keith Urban
Dan: Again, pretty indifferent here.
Ben: Church was between albums this year, but he’s the one whom I feel has represented country music the best. With Urban being past his commercial peak, I’m going to give the edge to Luke Bryan for his current red-hot momentum, but I honestly couldn’t care less which of the three dudebros gets it.
Jonathan: I’d replace four-fifths of this lineup with Gary Allan, Dierks Bentley, Darius Rucker, and Chris Young. If Bryan won’t win Entertainer of the Year, this will be his consolation prize.
Tara: I feel a little guilty rewarding Church’s residual awesomeness from Chief over Aldean’s admittedly solid year, but I’m still one redeeming single away from getting over “She’s Country.” Like Jonathan said, though, I think this is where the voters will reward Bryan.
Kevin: I’d give it to Bryan simply because he’s had a good year and has a good voice. Another Shelton win seems inevitable to me.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert
Kacey Musgraves
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Will Win:
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
Kacey Musgraves – Tara
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Dan: Who knows? Voters could give Lambert a record-tying (with Reba McEntire) four-peat, or maybe give Underwood her fourth trophy instead, or maybe give Swift a second one just to be zany, or dismiss the stats entirely and make a surprise investment in Musgraves. I can imagine any of those scenarios playing out.
Ben: I’ll probably be 100% Team Kacey at next year’s ACMs, but right now I want to see Underwood recognized for her incredible Blown Away era. As Dan noted above, this category is difficult to predict this year. I’m going to play it safe and bet on Lambert, but Kelly Clarkson is the only one without a shot.
Jonathan: Since there are far stronger albums than Blown Away in contention for Album of the Year, this is where I’d prefer to see Underwood recognized for the artistic gains she’s made during her current era. Lambert basically told voters to do just that during her acceptance speech for Female Vocalist of the Year during the ACMs a few months back, but it seems doubtful that they will. She seems poised to repeat, even though she’s coming off the most poorly received and lowest selling run of her career. Based on the quality of what was released during the eligibility period, I would have preferred to see Brandy Clark, Ashley Monroe, Kellie Pickler, and LeAnn Rimes squaring off against Underwood.
Tara: Just going out on a limb here with Musgraves; it feels like this category is due for a change. Or maybe that change will be a throwback to Underwood? One can hope.
Kevin: I think Lambert will win out of force of habit, with bonus votes for having the good taste to cover Musgraves and Clark before they both became breakout artists this year. Underwood made the best music and, as always, sang it better than the rest.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town – Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Zac Brown Band – Dan, Kevin
Will Win:
The Band Perry – Kevin
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Zac Brown Band
Dan: I suppose that Little Big Town will repeat—but with “Your Side of the Bed” having doused their white-hot momentum, it’s hard to say for sure. Perhaps voters will finally throw Zac Brown Band the bone, if Brown’s Luke Bryan comments didn’t ruffle too many feathers. [Update: And ditto what Kevin says below.]
Ben: Little Big Town may have lost some steam with “Your Side of the Bed,” but they’re still going into the ring with a platinum album and two big hit singles, and they’re one of the only groups with multiple nominations this year. The trophy is theirs to lose.
Jonathan: Had The Band Perry scored more across-the-board support, I’d say they might have been able to pull off the upset here, but this remains Little Big Town’s to lose. Hopefully, a repeat victory will lend “Sober,” one of the year’s finest singles and arguably a new career-best for LBT, greater momentum at radio.
Tara: Cheers to that, Jonathan. Agreed.
Kevin: The Band Perry had a new album this year that was well-received. My personal pick is Zac Brown Band, only because I want last year’s Little Big Town win to start a new era in this category of acknowledging the overdue. Having the Dixie Chicks rack up four wins in five years is one thing. Rascal Flatts and Lady Antebellum dominating in the same way robbed the award of its luster. Last year, it got a little back. Let’s keep it going.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
Big & Rich
The Civil Wars – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Florida Georgia Line
Love and Theft
Sugarland
Thompson Square
Will Win:
Big & Rich
The Civil Wars
Florida Georgia Line – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Love and Theft
Sugarland
Thompson Square
Dan: After years of sluggish Sugarland and shruggish Thompson Square, at least this year’s winning duo will have clear commercial heft behind them. Too bad I’m talking about Florida Georgia Line and not the also-quite-successful Civil Wars.
Ben: Whatever.
Jonathan: Same as it ever was: This category is years overdue to merge with Vocal Group. And the nomination for Sugarland is absurd.
Tara: I can’t decide what’s more amusing: Sugarland’s nomination or Florida Georgia Line’s inevitable win. (Although it does kind of feel like Sugarland is still haunting country radio with that new Band Perry single, no?)
Kevin: The Civil Wars. I swear they’re only nominating them so we can feel extra bad when they lose to Florida Georgia Line. (See: Rascal Flatts over Alison Krauss & Union Station, Martina McBride over Dolly Parton and Patty Loveless…)
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
Lee Brice
Brett Eldredge
Florida Georgia Line
Kacey Musgraves – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Kip Moore
Will Win:
Lee Brice
Brett Eldredge
Florida Georgia Line – Dan, Ben
Kacey Musgraves – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Kip Moore
Dan: Musgraves is class valedictorian, and Moore’s a solid B+ student, but expect the boys of Florida Georgia Line to cruise in on baseball scholarship and come out on top.
Ben: Musgraves has a chance, but I don’t know if her critical clout will be enough to compete with the “Cruise” phenomenon.
Jonathan: That Musgraves is the night’s leading nominee gives me hope that she can overcome Florida Georgia Line’s commercial heft. That she had the balls to push “Follow Your Arrow” as a proper single puts me firmly in her corner.
Tara: Moore is my personal favorite here, but Musgraves outclasses them all. I’ll throw my optimism in with Jonathan and Kevin.
Kevin: This is a defining moment for the CMA’s. Musgraves will help restore their credibility. Florida Georgia Line will destroy what’s left of it. FWIW, Ricky Skaggs beat Lee Greenwood and Mark Chesnutt beat John Michael Montgomery. Then again, Rascal Flatts beat Nickel Creek and Terri Gibbs beat Rosanne Cash…
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Little Big Town, Tornado – Jonathan
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – Dan, Ben
Blake Shelton, Based On a True Story…
Taylor Swift, Red
Carrie Underwood, Blown Away – Tara, Kevin
Will Win:
Little Big Town, Tornado – Ben, Tara
Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – Jonathan
Blake Shelton, Based On a True Story… – Dan
Taylor Swift, Red
Carrie Underwood, Blown Away – Kevin
Dan: Tough call. In recent years, the CMA has coalesced around the album with the most “story” value, whether that story was total domination (Fearless, My Kinda Party) or a respected artist finally hitting pay dirt (Revolution, Chief). Tornado seems like a fit for that second grouping, except that Little Big Town’s pay dirt was already last year. So the field seems open.
Ben: Of the four albums that have any real business being nominated for country awards, I consider the Musgraves set to be the strongest, but my gut says that it’s going to come down to either Shelton or Little Big Town. I’m going to be optimistic and predict an LBT victory.
Jonathan: I’m not nearly as bullish on Musgraves’ album as many others are, but it seems like this is safest place for voters to recognize her distinctive, critically acclaimed work. Tornado is my pick for the most consistently excellent set of this line-up; Red hits some glorious highs, but it’s also wildly uneven and has little business being recognized as a country album.
Tara:Tornado has some really fantastic production, and Blown Away is a stand-out showcase of Underwood’s interpretive abilities. Personal investment puts me in Underwood’s camp, but based on momentum and the fact that Musgraves is new, I think Little Big Town will take this.
Kevin: Musgraves has the most critical support, but Underwood made a much better album, in my opinion. I’m going out on a limb here and saying Underwood will win. My logic is that she had an incredible year and this is the best category to acknowledge that in. Also, a debut album has never won this award. There’s always a first time, but Musgraves has a lot of history up against her here.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise”
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Kacey Musgraves, “Merry Go ‘Round” – Dan, Ben
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
Will Win:
Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise” – Dan, Jonathan, Ben
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Kacey Musgraves, “Merry Go ‘Round”
Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel” – Tara, Kevin
Dan: “Cruise” is the behemoth here, and behemoths tend to win Single.
Ben: Dan said it.
Jonathan: I’d like to think that a record-setting run atop Billboard’s ridiculous mongrel chart would be its own reward, but it probably won’t be.
Kevin: There have been some goofy winners in the past. “Elvira.” “Achy Breaky Heart.” “Bop.” But there aren’t any in the recent past. I think that “Wagon Wheel” allows the CMA to pick a big mainstream hit that has a bit of alt-country cred, should they decide against a Musgraves sweep.
Tara: I agree with Kevin that “Wagon Wheel” seems like a nice compromise for the voters. I’d be cool with any of the latter three winning, but to me, “Mama’s Broken Heart” has the most momentum from start to finish.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“I Drive Your Truck” (Lee Brice) - Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Jimmy Yeary
“Mama’s Broken Heart” (Miranda Lambert) – Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally and Kacey Musgraves – Kevin
“Merry Go ‘Round” (Kacey Musgraves) – Kacey Musgraves, Shane McAnally and Josh Osborne – Dan, Ben, Tara
“Pontoon” (Little Big Town) - Barry Dean, Natalie Hemby and Luke Laird
“Wagon Wheel” (Darius Rucker) - Bob Dylan and Ketch Secor – Dan, Jonathan
Will Win:
“I Drive Your Truck” (Lee Brice) - Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Jimmy Yeary - Dan, Jonathan
“Merry Go ‘Round” (Kacey Musgraves) – Kacey Musgraves, Shane McAnally and Josh Osborne – Ben, Tara, Kevin
“Pontoon” (Little Big Town) - Barry Dean, Natalie Hemby and Luke Laird
“Wagon Wheel” (Darius Rucker) - Bob Dylan and Ketch Secor
Dan: “Wagon Wheel” is a proven standard, but voters will probably want to go with something newer, and I guess I do, too. There’s a decent chance that Musgraves will get acknowledged here with “Merry Go ‘Round,” but with two co-writes in the pool, her danger is vote-splitting—and if that does happen, I defer to Jonathan’s logic below. Plus, frankly, CMA voters love songs about deceased loved ones.
Ben: It’s definitely possible that vote-splitting may be turn out to be Musgraves’ undoing in this category, but my guess is that “Merry Go ‘Round” will ultimately overshadow “Mama’s Broken Heart,” and that this will be where she gets her trip to the podium.
Jonathan: I’m all-in for the idea of recognizing brilliant songs that should have been hits a decade ago. Next year, can we get Drive-By Truckers’ “Outfit” or Neko Case’s “Deep Red Bells,” please? This year, I just can’t see the CMA giving an award to Bob Dylan, and, as much as I’d love to see Brandy Clark win, I think the Musgraves co-writes will split votes. Which leaves a frivolous holdover from last year to face off against the only “truck” song in years that’s worth even half a damn. I think the latter pulls off the night’s only real upset.
Tara: Lots of solid choices here; even “Pontoon” has a melody worth respecting. “Merry Go ‘Round” just edges out “Mama’s Broken Heart” for me, but I think the voters will be more pointed with their choice and reward Musgraves for her breakout song.
Kevin: “Merry Go ‘Round” fits in well with previous female writer wins. Distinct point of view, attention to details, and some quiet feminist commentary. My pick is “Mama’s Broken Heart”, which I think is just brilliant. “Line your lips and keep them closed.” Wow.
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
Little Big Town, “Tornado”
Dan: The Underwood clip was made to win this award, but I find it silly. Why does she have lie around all sexily on that bed in the tornado shelter?
Ben: Little Big Town’s “Tornado” is also a worthy contender, but Underwood’s “Blown Away” video is an absolute tour de force.
Jonathan: The idea that this could be how the Pistol Annies win a CMA award just makes my teeth hurt. As big a fan of hers as I may be, Miranda’s mugging in the video for “Mama’s Broken Heart” makes her laughable acting gig on Law & Order: Perverts Unit seem measured and subtle by comparison.
Kevin: Because why shouldn’t there be two winners in this category that give homage to Oz?
Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – Jonathan, Ben, Dan, Kevin, Tara
Jason Aldean with Luke Bryan and Eric Church, “The Only Way I Know”
Ben: Clarkson and Gill made the best record of the lot, but it doesn’t have the commercial muscle to pull off a victory, so I’m giving the edge to McGraw and Company.
Jonathan: Cosigning Ben’s comment, word for word.
Dan: “Highway Don’t Care” is kinda weird and meh, but it’s not “Boys ‘Round Here” and “The Only Way I Know”. For this, I am grateful.
Tara: I swear I’m not throwing this to Clarkson and Gill just because they’re Clarkson and Gill – I can stomach not one of these other songs. Part of me thinks Aldean and co. might take this, but McGraw and co. seems more likely.
Kevin: “Highway Don’t Care” made me enjoy both McGraw and Swift as singers, not just song pickers/songwriters. For that alone, the win.
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
Sam Bush (Mandolin) – Jonathan, Ben
Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – Kevin
Dann Huff (Guitar)
Brent Mason (Guitar)
Mac McAnally (Guitar)
Will Win:
Sam Bush (Mandolin)
Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
Dann Huff (Guitar)
Brent Mason (Guitar)
Mac McAnally (Guitar)
Ben: I’ll be all for Paul Franklin next year thanks to Bakersfield, but this year I would like to see Sam Bush get his due.
Jonathan: Bush may not have a MacArthur fellowship like Chris Thile, but his progressive mandolin work is certainly overdue for recognition. Hard to begrudge Franklin, though, as Bakersfield is one of the year’s best albums.
Kevin: Until he wins. I will pick him until he wins.
It’s fun to imagine the songwriting meeting that produced this. It sounds like somebody just said, “So let’s write a song about a parking lot party before a concert”… so they did.
In theory, a song attempting to encapsulate that pre-show warm-up experience is not a bad idea. The problem is that “Parking Lot Party” is all volume and no content – all packaging and no product. There seems to be little idea behind the song other than the fact that parking lot parties are a thing, and repeating the phrase “parking lot party” over and over again.
Part of the problem is simply that the song tries too hard to make you like it, shamelessly laying on every gimmick under the sun, including an spoken intro by Nashville DJs Big D and Bubba, crowd sound effects, and a canned singalong chorus at the end. There’s hardly a hook or clever line to validate the song’s existence, and the record as a whole is made so cheesy that it’s hard to listen to.
The song reminds me in some ways of Little Big Town’s “Pontoon” in that both songs portray scenes of summery recreation in a mostly literal and one-dimensional manner. The difference is that “Pontoon” is catchy – this isn’t.
There’s nothing wrong with ear candy, but you’ve got to remember to add the flavor.
Written by Lee Brice, Rhett Akins, Thomas Rhett, and Luke Laird
Lee Brice’s current hit is quite possibly the best song he’s yet sent to radio – a compelling meditation on the process of dealing with grief over the loss of a loved one in death.
The point of the song is that each person has his or her own way of dealing with loss. In the case of our bereaved narrator – who the lyric implies has lost a brother in army combat – he deals with it through driving his brother’s truck. The song is filled with little details that add color to the story, from the half-empty bottle of Gatorade on the floor to his brother’s favorite country station playing on the radio. Though specific in nature, the scenario is relatable for any of us who have dealt with grief by surrounding ourselves with things that remind us of the one lost. A simple but delicately crafted story that draws out one of Brice’s most evocative vocal performances on record.
I hate to have to poke a stick at a single’s production for what feels like the hundredth time, but this song would have an even greater impact if given a more restrained arrangement. It’s a fine performance of a solid song, but the bass-heavy production in the chorus acts as an unfortunate distraction.
But in the end, the power of a great song prevails. Without a doubt, “I Drive Your Truck” is Lee Brice’s finest single to date.
Written by Lee Brice, Kyle Jacobs, and Matt McClure
While the rest of the country fixates on “Nashville,” the 46th annual Country Music Association Awards air live from Music City with equal drama and ridiculousness November 1 at 7 p.m. CST. The CU staff picked and predicted the awards below. Chime in with your thoughts, and check back for our live blog on Thursday night!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Ben, Kevin
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Tara, Leeann
Will Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift – Tara, Leeann
Dan: I’ll probably never be able to fully embrace Aldean, but his impact on the genre remains undeniable, and once in a while he releases something like “Fly Over States” that lends some dimension to his hick-rock formula.
Tara: “Fly Over States” will land on my best-of-2012 list (I’m as surprised as you are), but I just can’t get behind Jason Aldean’s overall brand of country, regardless of his impact. That leaves me with Blake Shelton and Taylor Swift, and only the latter put out music to match her star in the eligibility period. Boring category.
Ben: Sadly, this category just keeps getting harder and harder for me to care about. I could still see Swift taking it, but an Aldean victory is almost certain to happen sooner or later, and I’m thinking this could be his year. Blake’s turn will come eventually, but not until after Aldean has had his.
Jonathan: Aldean has yet to release anything I’ve liked even a little bit, but this award has increasingly turned into Nashville’s way to say “thank you” to whoever is bringing the most cash back to Music Row, so Aldean is likely due for a pat on the back. On some level, Shelton’s heightened media presence is its own reward, but he’s the most likely spoiler here, since pop crossover stars like Swift rarely pull off repeat wins.
Kevin: Should win: Carrie Underwood. But since she’s not nominated, I’ll go with Jason Aldean, who has been the biggest country artist this past year. I expect he’ll win, too.
Leeann: While it’s completely baffling to me that Jason Aldean has taken off as he has, I wouldn’t be shocked if he won this award. I, however, feel that it’s far more likely that Taylor Swift will win again.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert – Leeann
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Will Win:
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift – Leeann
Carrie Underwood
Tara: I still believe Underwood’s best is yet to come, but she deserves respect from the industry and critics alike for taking the kind of creative, thematic and interpretive risks she took with Blown Away. Maybe come next year she’ll have more influence; this year, the award is still Lambert’s to lose. (And shout out to homegirl Clarkson, who may have no place in this category, but who gave us the best cover of “Go Rest High On That Mountain” that I’ve ever heard.)
Ben: In my perfect world, Carrie Underwood’s solid new music (which was released within this year’s eligibility period) would nab her the trophy. Miranda had the most radio success this year, and will almost surely emerge victorious, but I simply can’t endorse the idea of rewarding her for releasing two singles that were easily the worst duds of her career. Footnote: Country radio seriously needs to start supporting more female artists.
Jonathan: I adore Kelly Clarkson, and, based upon nearly a decade’s worth of concert performances, I’d argue that she has the best taste in country material of any of the women nominated, and I look forward to the day when she finally records a proper country album. But her nomination here is absurd. Fortunately, she’s not really in the running to win. This likely comes down to Lambert and Underwood. In the past, I’ve championed Lambert for her fearless artistic vision, and I’ve been highly critical of Underwood’s grossly over-praised and over-rewarded output. But, this year, I’d prefer to see Underwood recognized for what is far and away her career-best work than to see Lambert win for what is quite obviously her worst. I doubt the voters will agree.
Dan: Ditto the others, pretty much. Underwood’s taste in material has deepened, but what excites me most is that her interpretive abilities have, too. I never used to feel comfortable with those comparisons to the Trishas and Connies of the world. Now I do.
Kevin: It’s all been said. Underwood’s reached new heights of artistry while still maintaining her commercial relevance. I’d call her one of the best, but that would imply there’s anyone else in her league right now.
Leeann: Miranda Lambert is still my favorite out of these choices and Kelly Clarkson’s nomination is still confusing to me. I think the award is a toss up between Taylor and Carrie in all actuality though.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Blake Shelton – Leeann
Keith Urban
Will Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan – Dan
Eric Church – Kevin
Blake Shelton – Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann
Keith Urban
Tara: Unlike last year’s crop of men, these five at least put out memorable if not entirely thoughtful material in the eligibility period. But Church is the only one who’s had a consistent vision, and what a difference that makes. I don’t see the voters dethroning Shelton, though.
Ben: I expect that the CMA is going to continue shoving the whole “Blake and Miranda are the new Tim and Faith!” idea down our throats, but Eric Church made the best music of the field by far, and country radio finally decided to get on board with it. Eric Church deserves this.
Jonathan: Church is the only one of the five who has released any strong material during the eligibility period, though I generally remain a fan of Urban’s. It’s hard to see either of those two men winning, though. Urban’s past his commercial peak, and Church is still too divisive a persona. I also think Aldean’s vocal limitations play against him here – see Chesney, Kenny, and his track record in Male Vocalist races – especially since he’s likely to be recognized elsewhere. That leaves Crest WhiteStrips to take on Shelton. I think Shelton gets another win before Bryan’s inevitable coronation here.
Dan: CMA has developed a bad habit of just voting for the incumbent. But Bryan has the most momentum right now, so what the hey; I’ll mix things up and call it Crest Whitestrips 2012.
Kevin: Gonna go out on a limb and say the best one takes it home this year. They’ve got to be itching to finally acknowledge Eric Church, right? Right???
Leeann: Blake Shelton has had a good year. I suppose he has a good, high profile chance of being rewarded for it.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town – Kevin
Zac Brown Band – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann
Will Win:
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum – Dan, Ben, Leeann
Little Big Town – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Zac Brown Band
Dan: Little Big Town’s album is too new, but their sudden momentum could power them to a spoiler win here anyway, depending on who Capitol gets behind. I’ll support them come ACM time; for now, give Zac Brown Band their freakin’ due.
Tara: Zac Brown Band and Little Big Town both put out stellar new music; the only major difference is timing. I support a ZBB win but won’t be disappointed if/when the “Pontoon”-fueled LBT steals this from the most complacent group in country music.
Ben: Zac Brown Band should win. Lady Antebellum will win. Déjà vu?
Jonathan: As much as logic points to another indefensible win for the most useless act in popular music, and as much as I want to see Zac Brown Band finally earn their long-overdue recognition, I’m calling this one an upset for the also-long-overdue Little Big Town. That karaoke video for “Pontoon” showed off just how deeply likedthey are by their peers, and now that they have the commercial stats, I think that that pervasive goodwill gives them the edge here.
Kevin: I think the red-hot momentum of Little Big Town could put them over the top. Zac Brown Band’s been my pick for a couple of years, but I really think they’re just treading water at this point.
Leeann: Zac Brown Band is far and away my favorite group of the nominees here, but Little Big Town’s talent is undeniable. I’d be happy if either of them won. I’m afraid Lady A will still win though.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
Big & Rich
Love and Theft
Sugarland
The Civil Wars – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin, Leeann
Thompson Square
Will Win:
Big & Rich
Love and Theft
Sugarland – Leeann
The Civil Wars – Kevin
Thompson Square – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Ben: Because The Civil Wars are good.
Jonathan: Per usual: Merge this category with Vocal Group to trim the fat. The only act here deserving of the recognition is the one with the longest of long-shots to win.
Dan: La la la.
Tara: So pointless.
Kevin: I’m going out on another limb, this time by thinking that the whole “massive commercial success without radio” thing will give the Civil Wars a Mavericks-style victory. I’d honestly rather be wrong in my predictions than be depressed before the show even airs.
Leeann: I don’t think Sugarland has had a particularly active year, but I think they might still win based on name recognition.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
Lee Brice – Ben, Tara, Leeann
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes – Dan, Kevin
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Will Win:
Lee Brice
Brantley Gilbert – Dan, Ben, Jonathan
Hunter Hayes – Kevin, Leeann, Tara
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Dan: Since none of these artists do it for me, I’d shrug it over to the technically skilled Hayes, who I think could be interesting in the future if he challenges himself to become more than a one-man boy-band. As Sawyer Brown and Keith Urban have proven, sometimes an artist earns their win in this category retroactively.
Tara: Hunter Hayes needs to rein it in a bit, but his chops have potential. Lee Brice needs to find better material, but his performances are believable. “Hard To Love” is one of my favorite guilty pleasures of the year, so I guess I’ll go with the latter?
Ben: Lee Brice strikes me as having the most potential of these nominees, but right now, I think the Brantley Gilbert virus has already spread too far.
Jonathan: Absolutely not.
Kevin: Hunter Hayes is the musical equivalent of those memes that show cats doing people things. He’s putting out real country music, and it’s adorable! All joking aside, I’m pulling for real country music wherever I can find it. Hayes is all I’ve got to work with here.
Leeann: I’m really not fond of any of these choices.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Luke Bryan, Tailgates and Tanlines
Eric Church, Chief – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin, Leeann
Miranda Lambert, Four the Record
Dierks Bentley, Home
Lady Antebellum, Own the Night
Will Win:
Luke Bryan, Tailgates and Tanlines
Eric Church, Chief – Dan, Kevin
Miranda Lambert, Four the Record – Ben, Tara
Dierks Bentley, Home
Lady Antebellum, Own the Night – Jonathan, Leeann
Dan: Everyone but Bentley’s got a shot, but my hopeful guess is that this is where the CMA will reward Church.
Tara: Chief and Four the Record both made big impressions on me last year, but only the former has held up with time. I’ll be optimistic and predict the CMA will reward its reigning Female Vocalist of the Year over its reigning Group of the Year. (I still can’t get over Own the Night winning a Grammy, y’all. Unbelievable.)
Ben: Church’s Chief is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field, but my gut is still predicting a Lambert and Shelton sweep, though there’s still a chance the voters may decide to reward that dreadful Lady A album instead.
Jonathan: Bright side: This is the last major “Album of the Year”-type award Own the Night is eligible to win. Downside: This is the last major “Album of the Year”-type award Own the Night will win, at the expense of far more deserving competition.
Kevin: I think Chief really made an impression, and I’m betting it was enough of one to win.
Leeann: I reflexively assume Lady A will win this award at this point, but I’m hoping for a Dierks Bentley or Eric Church win. Dierks Bentley’s album is quality and I feel Eric Church’s album is interesting and fresh.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“Even If It Breaks Your Heart” – Will Hoge and Eric Paslay – Dan, Jonathan, Tara
“God Gave Me You” – Dave Barnes
“Home” – Dierks Bentley, Dan Wilson and Brett Beavers – Kevin, Leeann
“Over You” – Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton
“Springsteen” – Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell – Ben
Will Win:
“Even If It Breaks Your Heart” – Will Hoge and Eric Paslay – Dan, Tara
“God Gave Me You” – Dave Barnes – Leeann
“Home” – Dierks Bentley, Dan Wilson and Brett Beavers
“Over You” – Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton – Ben, Jonathan
“Springsteen” – Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell – Kevin
Dan: I think I’m just being optimistic, but maybe the earnest Hoge/Paslay story of struggling for an artistic life will resonate with enough music-industry vets to overcome the bait-ishness of “Over You” and “Home.” Maybe?
Tara: I’d be fine with three of these five winning — and would even argue that, as a composition, “God Gave Me You” is solid — but “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” has the most soul. I’m not entirely sure where the votes will fall on this one, but maybe pop culture’s spotlight on Nashville will mean a win for the songwriters’ anthem?
Ben: I can’t picture this going to anyone but Lambert and Shelton. If the CMA intends to keep working this ridiculous power-couple nonsense, they have created a golden opportunity here, and I highly doubt the song’s awfulness will be any hindrance.
Jonathan: If knowing a song’s tragic backstory is a requirement for finding “meaning” in that song, then its songwriters have failed.
Kevin: I’m hoping the CMA voters sing Shelton and Lambert’s song back to them when filling out their ballots, and pick the strongest singer-songwriter in this race. Bentley’s cut is my personal favorite.
Leeann: I just have a feeling that the bland love song will win, but I’m hoping that the thoughtful “Home” will prove me wrong.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem” – Kevin
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Dierks Bentley, “Home” – Leeann
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Eric Church, “Springsteen” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Will Win:
Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem” – Kevin
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You” – Ben, Leeann
Dierks Bentley, “Home” – Dan, Jonathan, Tara
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Dan: Feels like a toss-up, actually. I’d figure “Home” and “Springsteen” to duke it out, but remember that year when “I Saw God Today” randomly won?
Tara: “Home”’s graceful approach to patriotism is lovely and especially appreciated during this infuriating election season, but the song itself lacks spark. “Springsteen” is the better all-around record, and I think it’ll hold up with time, which is a lot more than I can say about the remaining three songs in the category.
Ben: I think “Springsteen” is going to be the song with the most staying power.
Jonathan: As fine a single as “Springsteen” is, I just can’t see the CMA rallying behind a song inspired by the Boss, especially not in an election year. Bentley’s thoughtful and relatively subtle brand of patriotism seems like a far safer bet.
Kevin: I think that Aldean’s track is the coolest sounding record of the five. Surface pleasures will suffice.
Leeann: Please not “Dirt Road Anthem”!
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
”Dixie Highway”- Alan Jackson and Zac Brown Band
”Feel Like a Rock Star” – Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw
”Roll Me Up and Smoke Me When I Die” – Willie Nelson featuring Snoop Dogg, Kris Kristofferson and Jamey Johnson – Dan, Jonathan, Tara
”Safe and Sound” – Taylor Swift featuring the Civil Wars – Ben, Kevin, Leeann
”Stuck on You” – Lionel Richie and Darius Rucker
Will Win:
”Dixie Highway”- Alan Jackson and Zac Brown Band
”Feel Like a Rock Star” – Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw – Ben, Jonathan, Leeann
”Roll Me Up and Smoke Me When I Die” – Willie Nelson featuring Snoop Dogg, Kris Kristofferson and Jamey Johnson
”Safe and Sound” – Taylor Swift featuring the Civil Wars – Dan, Kevin, Tara
”Stuck on You” – Lionel Richie and Darius Rucker
Dan: “Roll Me Up” is a little hoot. But “Safe and Sound” had a higher profile, and it gives CMA a chance to be like, “See? We do appreciate the Civil Wars!”
Tara: Every song but “Roll Me Up” feels like it’s lacking something (in Chesney/McGraw’s case, taste), but I think “Safe and Sound” will have enough commercial clout to nab this one.
Ben: While I’m always happy to see some Alan Jackson love, “Dixie Highway” just doesn’t match the simple charm of Jackson and ZBB’s previous collaboration. “Safe and Sound” is just such a cool, haunting record – one that brings out the best in both of the acts involved. But since “Feel Like a Rock Star” has the biggest names attached, I think it’s an easy call that it’s going to win.
Jonathan:“Safe and Sound” is my favorite track here, but not necessarily because it’s a great collaboration. “Roll Me Up,” on the other hand, is a fun standalone cut that feels like a real event, and I appreciate the self-awareness with which the artists toy with their public personas. But it’s hard to imagine more conservative voters being on-board with the phrase, “CMA award winner Snoop Dogg.” The Chesney and McGraw duet quite rightfully bricked at radio, but it’s still the most likely winner here on star power alone.
Kevin: “Safe and Sound” succeeded in pushing the most mainstream of artists into an alternative country sound without sacrificing the identity of the duo that helped her get there. Plus it actually worked as a theme song to a movie that didn’t exactly lend itself to easy theming.
Leeann: I’d be fine with any of these except for the one that will probably win.
Eric Church, “Springsteen” – Dan, Ben, Tara, Kevin
Kenny Chesney, “Come Over”
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Will Win:
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Kenny Chesney, “Come Over”
Miranda Lambert, “Over You” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Dan: The “Springsteen” video is pretty neato. Oh well.
Tara: The video for “Springsteen” is haunting. I dig it.
Jonathan: The Twilight-hued video for “Over You” is every bit as narrativeless, cloying, and shallow as the song itself, so I’m just going to pretend this is a retroactive win for “Kerosene.”
Kevin: (…Goes to YouTube to watch videos for first time…) Lambert, you had me until the horse. I’m going with Church, mostly because it reminds me of my own childhood and also Poltergeist for some reason.
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
Sam Bush – Jonathan, Kevin
Paul Franklin – Ben, Leeann
Dann Huff
Brent Mason
Mac McAnally
Will Win:
Sam Bush
Paul Franklin
Dann Huff – Jonathan, Kevin
Brent Mason
Mac McAnally – Ben, Leeann
Ben: It’s Paul Franklin’s turn… and it has been for years now.
Jonathan: It’s not as cool as Chris Thile’s winning a MacArthur Fellowship, but Sam Bush’s nomination for his extraordinary mandolin work is my favorite thing on the entire CMA ballot this year.
Kevin: I can’t vote against the mandolin. I just can’t.
The list of nominees for the 46th annual Country Music Association Awards has been released. Eric Church had a big breakthrough this past year, and such is reflected in the nominee list – Church leads the pack with five nominations. Power couple Blake Shelton and Miranda Lambert follow with four each, including a shared Song of the Year nod for their co-write “Over You.”
What’s your take on this year’s field of CMA nominees? Whose nominations were deserved, and whose were not? Who got snubbed? Share your thoughts in the comments section.
The live presentation airs Thursday, November 1 at 8pm Eastern on ABC-TV. The Country Universe Staff Picks & Predictions will be released the week of the show. Feel free to join us on show night for some live-blogging fun!
Entertainer of the Year
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift
Who’s in: Kenny Chesney
Who’s out: Keith Urban
No real surprises here. This year we swapped out Urban for Chesney, but all of these nominees have been here at least once before.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Who’s in: Kelly Clarkson
Who’s out: Sara Evans
Well, I was hoping for some new blood in this category, and that’s definitely what I got. Pop crossover star Kelly Clarkson scores her first nomination in the Female Vocalist field, displacing Sara Evans. There will likely be some amount of upset over Clarkson receiving such an accolade, as she had one #21-peaking country hit in the past year with “Mr. Know It All,” but has yet to release a full-length country album. And…that makes her one of the top five leading female vocalists in the country format? Okay…
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Who’s in: Luke Bryan, Eric Church
Who’s out: Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley
Bryan and Church’s recent career strides are rewarded
with their first nominations in the always-competitive Male Vocalist race.
Vocal Group of the Year
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Zac Brown Band
Who’s in: Eli Young Band
Who’s out: Rascal Flatts (!!!)
Eli Young Band scores a pair of huge radio hits, and thus squeezes out a former staple of the Vocal Group race.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Big & Rich
Love and Theft
Sugarland
The Civil Wars
Thompson Square
Who’s in: Big & Rich, Love and Theft
Who’s out: Montgomery Gentry, Steel Magnolia
New Artist of the Year
Lee Brice
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Who’s in: Lee Brice, Brantley Gilbert, Hunter Hayes, Love and Theft
Who’s out: The Band Perry (won), Luke Bryan, Eric Church, Chris Young (So, everyone except Thompson Square)
Album of the Year (Awarded to artist and producer)
Luke Bryan, Tailgates and Tanlines Produced by Jeff Stevens and Mark Bright
Eric Church, Chief Produced by Jay Joyce
Miranda Lambert, Four the Record Produced by Frank Liddell, Chuck Ainlay, and Glenn Worf
Dierks Bentley, Home Produced by Brett Beavers, Luke Wooten, and Jon Randall Stewart
Lady Antebellum, Own the Night Produced by Paul Worley and Lady Antebellum
Song of the Year (Awarded to songwriters)
Eli Young Band, “Even if It Breaks Your Heart”
Written by Will Hoge and Eric Paslay
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Written by Dave Barnes
Dierks Bentley, “Home”
Written by Dierks Bentley, Dan Wilson and Brett Beavers
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Written by Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Written by Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell
Single of the Year (Awarded to artist and producer)
Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem”
Produced by Michael Knox
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Produced by Scott Hendricks
Dierks Bentley, “Home”
Produced by Brett Beavers and Luke Wooten
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Produced by Jay Joyce
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Produced by Jay Joyce
Musical Event of the Year
Alan Jackson and Zac Brown Band, “Dixie Highway”
Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw, “Feel Like a Rock Star”
Willie Nelson featuring Snoop Dogg, Kris Kristofferson and Jamey Johnson, “Roll Me Up and Smoke Me When I Die”
Taylor Swift featuring the Civil Wars, “Safe and Sound”
Lionel Richie and Darius Rucker, “Stuck on You”
Music Video of the Year (Awarded to artist and director)
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Directed by Peter Zavadil
Kenny Chesney, “Come Over”
Directed by Shaun Silva
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Directed by Trey Fanjoy
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Directed by Declan Whitebloom
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Directed by Michael Salomon
Musician of the Year
Sam Bush
Paul Franklin
Dann Huff
Brent Mason
Mac McAnally
I’ve got an idea about how we can stop the bleeding.
Let’s make it mandatory for all new country singles top selling herbal viagra to have arrangements like the ones on Jerrod Niemann records. While we’re at it, let’s keep Zac Brown Band on retainer, too.
At least that way all of the songs will be interesting to listen to, even if the lyrics are banal and the vocals can’t be saved by Auto-tune.
I’d be happy just listening to Jerrod Niemann’s new single as an instrumental, but thankfully, Niemann also has a laid-back lyric and personable vocal performance to go with the cool instrumentation.
Let’s go down the checklist:
Decent Song
Good Vocal Performance
Effective Production
Minimal Noise
It’s got all of the necessary components of a 2012 country single that’s actually listenable. I’d say he cleared the bar by a wide margin, but it’s so far underground now that it’s impossible to measure the distance.
Written by Lee Brice, Rob Hatch, Lance Miller, and Jerrod Niemann
This year’s ACM Awards were mediocre and broverwhemingly male-centric, despite women winning most of the major awards. As with last fall’s CMA show, the best moment was the final one, when George Strait won Entertainer of the Year.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Female Vocalist of the Year
Vocal Duo of the Year
Vocal Group of the Year
New Artist of the Year
Album of the Year
Single Record of the Year
Song of the Year
Video of the Year
Vocal Event of the Year
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