It’s that time of year again! The time when we all dutifully tune in to the CMA Awards show, raise our eyebrows at the “What the heck are they doing here?” award presenters, and afterwards complain about how totally un-country the whole show was. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I can’t wait.
We’re pleased to share the Country Universe staff picks for this year’s CMA Awards, as well as our predictions of who the winners will be. This year we have some highly competitive categories in which predicting the winners is quite difficult, leading to some significantly divergent picks among our writing staff. Agree? Disagree? Join in the discussion in the comment thread below, and let us know.
The CMA Awards telecast will air on Wednesday, November 9, 8pm Eastern on ABC-TV. We will be live blogging the show here at Country Universe, so do be sure to drop by and join in the fun!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean – Kevin
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift - Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Tara
Keith Urban
Will Win:
Jason Aldean
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton - Dan, Leeann, Jonathan
Taylor Swift – Ben, Kevin, Tara
Keith Urban
Dan: I can imagine anyone but Urban taking it, but I like Jonathan’s logic.
Ben: It’s hard to bet on the Entertainer award going to a female artist, but it seems Swift has undoubtedly had the biggest year of all the nominees. Her album sold like hotcakes, and produced a trio of killer radio singles, while she topped that off with her Speak Now tour. That combination should bag her this year’s top prize.
Leeann: Paisley could take it again, but my money’s on the CMA wanting to give it to fresh blood this year. Taylor Swift is who probably actually deserves it, however.
Jonathan: Paisley is probably the most logical pick, but he didn’t figure as heavily into the nominations this year as he could have, so I’m wondering if the voters have cooled on him as much as the crew here at CU have of late. Swift’s live show should be a factor in this category, but she has a whole lot of gender bias to overcome, and there seems to be at least something of a backlash against her in the country community post-Fearless. Which leaves the ubiquitous Shelton, who has been something of a new “Everywhere Man” for the genre over the past year.
Kevin: I think Swift will win because she had the highest profile year. But I think Aldean defines the genre in 2011, for better or for worse. Mostly worse.
Tara: As I’ve said before, this is the most appropriate way for the voters to reward Swift’s monster success, and for the first time at the CMAs, I truly feel she deserves this award. I’m particularly impressed with the way she continues to cultivate her relationship with her fans. I just hope the voters don’t pair this award with the FVOTY award.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean - Dan, Ben
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban - Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Will Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Ben
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton - Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Keith Urban
Dan: Aldean’s not my thing, but he’s the biggest guy in the field by an unignorable margin. More than anything, I think the indie Broken Bow Records deserves props for building their flagship artist so well.
Ben: I’m largely indifferent to this particular field of nominees (save possibly Keith Urban), but Aldean’s massive success should most likely nab him his first Male Vocalist trophy.
Leeann: Again, I think it’s Shelton’s night to sweep in order to shake things up this year. He and Urban have the strongest voices in the category anyway.
Jonathan: Urban’s the only one of the lot who has released even one single I’ve liked in the past year, so he’d get my vote. Aldean has the commercial clout, sure, but quality has to count for something, right? Voters have looked at the word “Vocalist” in the category name and have passed over Chesney for years, and I wonder if they’ll do the same to Aldean here. I’m thinking yes.
Kevin: Urban’s the one who I can stand to listen to. But if Shelton was able to win last year, I don’t see how he loses this year. Not post-Voice and “Honey Bee.”
Tara: It makes me sad that I can’t find a solid reason to support Urban or Paisley, both of whom I used to feel passionately about. And in all honesty, I can’t find a solid reason to support any of these guys, based on their output during the eligibility period. I’m going to blindly back Urban –who, despite being “Urban-lite” these days, is at least consistent– and predict that Shelton’s amped public profile will give him the edge with voters.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Sara Evans – Kevin
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan
Carrie Underwood – Tara
Will Win:
Sara Evans
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift - Ben
Carrie Underwood
Dan: Come ACM season, I’ll be all for Lambert; Pistol Annies and Four The Record prove she’s using her new commercial powers nobly. But I like Swift’s performances on Speak Now, and that album just applies more to this awards cycle.
Ben: Swift is the overall strongest contender, but I could see voters seizing the opportunity to recognize Evans, who released a new album and had a number one single during the eligibility period. I wouldn’t rule Lambert out either, though she didn’t have as strong a year as she did in 2010. But I doubt this will be Underwood’s year, and McBride’s was essentially a filler nomination, so I’d say it’s down to Swift, Evans, and Lambert. (But, like Dan, I will totally be Team Miranda when the ACMs roll around)
Leeann: I reflexively say Lambert should win, but Swift has had the best year and will likely win as a result. I won’t be heart broken if Lambert takes it though.
Jonathan: There’s a part of me that would vote for Lambert on principle and out of loyalty, but I can’t argue with a simple mathematical inequality: “Back to December,” “Mean,” and “Sparks Fly” > “Only Prettier,” “Heart Like Mine” and “Baggage Claim.” Had her label been campaigning harder that she’s never won this award, Evans could’ve been a bigger threat here, but Lambert’s ongoing momentum should carry her to a repeat win.
Kevin: Can this power couple nonsense be derailed? Probably not, so while I’d rather see Swift get it over Lambert, I’m doubtful it would happen. My real fantasy would be for the only non-winner, Sara Evans, to take it. For prosperity’s sake, and for actually putting out a great single that I failed to realize was great until it was already a hit.
Tara: This is a tough one for me. Lambert’s worked the genre like no other female has this past year and a half, but the singles she’s released in the eligibility period have been so-so. Swift’s put out some solid material, but I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to support her winning a vocalist award. And then there’s Underwood, who’s been relatively quiet on the radio front, but whose stunning performance of “How Great Thou Art” back in April went viral and serves as a reminder of what I firmly believe is one of the finest voices in the genre. I’m going with my gut and backing Underwood, but I think the voters will reward Lambert again, which is fine with me.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
The Civil Wars – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland
Thompson Square
Will Win:
The Civil Wars
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland - Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Thompson Square
Dan: Seriously, why not the Civil Wars? They’ve sold about as many albums (200,000-ish) as everyone besides Sugarland without the support of a major label. Not to mention they just made the most interesting music.
Ben: I’m supporting the Civil Wars on principle, but it’s a no-brainer that Sugarland’s hot streak is not over yet.
Leeann: I love The Civil Wars. The end.
Jonathan: Yet more evidence that this category should be merged with Vocal Group of the Year to cut the deadweight. Though the Civil Wars getting in instead of the JaneDear Girls is a nice testament to the fact that the CMAs, every so often, can exercise good taste and discretion.
Kevin: Sugarland’s album was atrocious. The Civil Wars are in the running for my favorite set of the year. Easy call for me.
Tara: Can Sugarland hurry up and release a new, redeeming album, please?
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Will Win:
The Band Perry
Lady Antebellum – Tara
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band - Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin
Dan: Lady A were between albums. Some variety this year, please.
Ben: It’ hard to bet against Lady Antebellum, but the Zac Brown band gave us a strong album and two of the year’s most memorable hit singles (“As She’s Walking Away” and “Colder Weather”), and I predict that they will be rewarded justly.
Leeann: Zac Brown Band has a good chance with the best music in the category, but Lady A just might not be out yet.
Jonathan: Little Big Town’s brilliant “Little White Church” should’ve put them back in the mix for good, but they really botched the single releases from their album and are right back to being also-rans. The Band Perry will settle for the “New Artist” award as a consolation prize this year, which leaves Lady A and Zac Brown Band to duke it out. In terms of the quality of their output, Zac Brown Band has Lady A dead to rights, but is that enough to stop the trio’s awards-show juggernaut? Let’s hope so.
Kevin: Zac Brown Band is the only option both realistic and palatable.
Tara: This is the first of these categories that I feel strongly about this year. Based on the strength of You Get What You Give, Zac Brown Band deserves to nab this award, hands down. But I’ll go against my co-bloggers here and guess that Lady Antebellum still has the industry wrapped around its finger.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry - Ben
Luke Bryan
Eric Church - Leeann, Jonathan
Thompson Square
Chris Young – Dan, Kevin, Tara
Will Win:
The Band Perry – Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Luke Bryan
Eric Church – Dan, Leeann, Kevin
Thompson Square
Chris Young
Dan: Church seems the most likely to have a long, interesting career and probably deserves the win. I just don’t want to encourage “Homeboy,” I guess.
Ben: Thompson Square and The Band Perry are the only two nominees whom I would still consider “new” artists, and I think The Band Perry beats Thompson Square any day. Bryan, however, did reach a new level of stardom over the past year, so he stands a good chance at wining nonetheless.
Leeann: While it’s strange that with three albums Church is still in the New Artist category, it’s probably that same reason that he should win the award, not to mention that he had the strongest album of the nominees in the past year.
Jonathan: Young’s the best singer in the field, but his material is still too inconsistent in quality for me to get on board with him. Church, on the other hand, finally made good on his early promise and his considerable hype with Chief and would be a deserving winner, as would the uneven but still pretty good The Band Perry. As the only nominee with any other nominations, they have to be considered the slight favorites over Crest WhiteStrips.
Kevin: I think Church’s big breakthrough happened close enough to the voting window to give him a slight edge. I’d like to see Chris Young get the boost from a win.
Tara: Of all the nominees, I’m the most excited for Chris Young’s future in country music – his vocal talent is tremendous, and even though it falls right outside of the eligibility period, Neon is one of my favorite releases of this year. Based on their other major nominations, though, I think The Band Perry will take this.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Blake Shelton, All About Tonight
Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party
Taylor Swift, Speak Now- Ben, Kevin
Brad Paisley, This Is Country Music
Zac Brown Band, You Get What You Give- Dan, Leeann, Jonathan, Tara
Will Win:
Blake Shelton, All About Tonight
Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party – Dan, Leeann, Jonathan, Tara
Taylor Swift, Speak Now – Ben, Kevin
Brad Paisley, This Is Country Music
Zac Brown Band, You Get What You Give
Dan: Here’s a logical place to acknowledge Aldean, though I hope voters think twice about it.
Ben: In my book, Swift and the Zac Brown Band are the only truly worthy winners (and I’m still scratching my head over why a Blake Shelton “Six Pak” was even nominated in the first place). To me, the most intriguing thing about Swift is that she really does seem to get a little better and a little deeper with each album. Speak Now is her crowning achievement to date, and in my opinion, the best album on this ballot.
Leeann: It hurts my heart to think it, but Jason Aldean’s big year will likely earn him the award for best album, even though numbers isn’t how such an award should be selected.
Jonathan: Speak Now is Swift’s strongest album, but, “Mean” notwithstanding, it’s also her most unabashedly pop album. And song-for-song, I still think You Get What You Give is slightly better. But Aldean has been a steady seller, and he’s big enough that he has to win one of the major awards, and this one’s his best bet.
Kevin: “All songs composed by Taylor Swift” impressed the heck out of me, not the least of which because the songs were far better than her earlier work. Zac Brown Band’s a close second for me.
Tara: Speak Now is solid, but You Get What You Give is the better example of how to move this genre forward, with its delicious yet reverent mishmash of influences. But I think this is where the voters will recognize the often overlooked commercial success of Jason Aldean.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
Sara Evans, “A Little Bit Stronger”
Zac Brown Band, “Colder Weather”- Leeann, Tara
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay”
Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee”
The Band Perry, “If I Die Young” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
Will Win:
Sara Evans, “A Little Bit Stronger”
Zac Brown Band, “Colder Weather”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay” - Jonathan, Tara
Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee” - Kevin
The Band Perry, “If I Die Young” - Dan, Ben, Leeann
Dan: It’d be heartening to see The Band Perry’s risky, rootsy release get its due. Plus: the single alone is 3x Platinum, better than any of its competitors can claim.
Ben: “Colder Weather” and “If I Die Young” are the two strongest competitors, but for me, a cool folksy arrangement puts the latter over the edge.
Leeann: This is tough. I can actually see any of these singles winning, but I have a good feeling about “If I Die Young”, though I’d love to see “Colder Weather” prove me wrong.
Jonathan: This one’s actually a tough call, since all five of the singles are big radio hits and everyone here has multiple nominations. “If I Die Young” is the best-produced single of the lot, but I’m predicting that Kelly Clarkson’s endless likability gives the edge to her duet with Aldean.
Kevin: Love the Band Perry record most, followed by Sara Evans. But this is the CMA awards, and Shelton managed to be both completely vanilla and namedrop Conway Twitty and Loretta Lynn.
Tara: If I better understood the story in “If I Die Young,” I might be able to get behind it, but I think “Colder Weather” is the more memorable single. It’s my favorite kind of country ballad – killer vocals, gripping melody and palpable emotion. I see the fiery Aldean / Clarkson collaboration taking this one, though. (By the way, dude, “Honey Bee” – really CMA?)
“If I Die Young” – Kimberly Perry - Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
“Mean” – Taylor Swift - Kevin
“You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter – Leann
Dan: “If I Die Young” is a flawed composition, but it’s still the most striking and strange one here, and that’s worth something.
Ben: I never though I’d see a CMA Song of the Year field in which Matraca Berg and Deana Carter would compete against Colt Ford and Brantley Gilbert. I would so love to see Berg and Carter win the award. I might tend to be slightly biased when it comes to Matraca Berg, but I think “Tequila” is a fine composition on its own merits, and a worthy winner indeed. Still, my gut predicion is that Perry will grab the trophy instead.
Leeann: “Mean” is probably my favorite song in terms of production and melody, but “You and Tequila” is the best song of the nominees.
Jonathan: Berg is a treasure and I like Carter well enough, so it’s nice to see their names on the ballot again, but “You and Tequila” isn’t either of their best compositions. Here’s the thing about “Mean”: What doesn’t work about the song has everything to do with the fact that it shows the extent to which Swift still hasn’t fully figured out her artistic persona. But in terms of melody and overall construction as a stand-alone song? It’s the class of the field. As Dan said, “If I Die Young” is flawed, but it also has a lot going for it and will be a fine, worthy winner when it inevitably takes this.
Kevin: I love “You and Tequila”, but it’s an old song. I’m glad Chesney rediscovered it, but I can’t see it as this year’s Song of the Year. I think “Mean” is the best of the bunch, with the music as clever as the lyrics.
Tara: I’m with Jonathan and Leann re: “Mean” in that I agree its melody and overall construction are terrific; unfortunately its flaw –the bridge, which undermines the premise of the song– is too big for me to overlook. And as much as I love it, I don’t feel right backing “Colder Weather,” either, as it’s really Brown’s vocal performance that elevates the composition to a memorable song. So I’ll go with the quirky and unique “If I Die Young” and guess the voters will, too.
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
“As She’s Walking Away” – Zac Brown Band featuring Alan Jackson – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
“Don’t You Wanna Stay” – Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan
“Old Alabama” – Brad Paisley with Alabama
“You and Tequila” – Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter
Dan: The Single nod for Jason and Kelly suggests they have the edge here. But my heart echoes a resounding “Go on, son.”
Ben: “As She’s Walking Away” is just so effortlessly charming that it would easily be my first pick, but the cross-genre appeal – and bonus Clarkson star power – of “Don’t You Wanna Stay” make it the most likely winner. The fact that “Don’t You Wanna Stay” is also nominated for Single (which “As She’s Walking Away” sadly isn’t) suggests a likely victory in this category.
Leeann: How can I not pull for the Zac Brown Band and Alan Jackson when I have a chance? I’m pretty confident that the drama, cross genre appeal, and, yup, the drama again, make “Don’t You Want to Stay” the sure bet though.
Jonathan: “As She’s Walking Away” is one of the purest and truest duets in years, and it could pull some votes from the more traditionalist voters, but the Aldean and Clarkson single just has too much firepower to lose here.
Kevin: If this doesn’t go to Zac Brown Band and Alan Jackson, then I no longer understand how CMA voters think.
Tara: No question here, “As She’s Walking Away” is head and shoulders above the rest of the collaborations in this category, one of the most quietly charming singles we’ve heard on country radio in quite some time. I’ll go out on a limb and predict that voters will have trouble ignoring the warm fuzzies they get when Jackson starts singing.
Music Video of the Year
Should Win:
Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee”
The Band Perry, “If I Die Young” – Dan
Taylor Swift, “Mean” – Ben, Kevin, Tara
Brad Paisley featuring Alabama, “Old Alabama”
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Dan: It’s my least favorite Paisley video ever, though.
Ben: Swift’s “Mean” is my personal favorite among these nominees, but I’m expecting that voters will show some Shelton love instead.
Jonathan: Paisley has to win something, right? And this also gives the voters a chance to honor some beloved genre vets.
Kevin: I think the video splicing tricks will give Paisley and Alabama an additional edge. Of the five clips, “Mean” is the one I like the most.
Tara: I love the whimsical video for “Mean” but think (and actually kind of hope) the voters will use this category to award the show co-host and his buddies.
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
Paul Franklin (steel guitar) - Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Dann Huff (guitar)
Brent Mason (guitar)
Mac McAnally (guitar)
Randy Scruggs (guitar)
Will Win:
Paul Franklin (steel guitar) - Leeann, Jonathan
Dann Huff (guitar)
Brent Mason (guitar)
Mac McAnally (guitar) – Dan, Ben, Kevin, Tara
Randy Scruggs (guitar)
Dan: Default underdog support.
Ben: I would love to see this go to the steel guitar man (and preferably not to Dann Huff), but Mac McAnally tends to be the favorite here.
Leeann: I want the steel guitar to represent this year. So, I’ll will it to happen.
Jonathan: Franklin’s the only nominee who hasn’t won previously, and being regarded as long overdue eventually helped McAnally score his first win, leading to his current three-year hot streak.
Kevin: I’ll be rooting for Paul Franklin until he finally wins, but I won’t believe that he’ll win until he finally does.
His sweet AM radio sound resonated across genre boundaries, but for traditionalists, John Denver was where they would draw the line.
That such inoffensive music could ever cause such controversy may seem silly today, but Denver’s crossover success in the country market reached its peak with a 1975 CMA win for Entertainer of the Year.
Coming one short year after the hotly contested Olivia Newton-John win for Female Vocalist, presenter Charlie Rich may not have been in the right frame of mind when he lit the envelope on fire before announcing Denver’s win, but he certainly spoke for the wide dissent felt among the industry’s rank for these genre carpetbaggers.
But how did Denver get to the point that he’d even be a contender for country music’s top prize? He started out as Henry John Deutschendorf, Jr., born in New Mexico to a military family that moved around often. During a stint in Arizona, he spent two years as a member of the Tuscon Arizona Boys Chorus.
His interest in music was further developed when he received a guitar from his grandmother on his twelfth birthday. He was so enchanted with dreams of being a music star that while attending high school in Texas, he ran away to California with his father’s car, but was brought back home to finish high school.
He started out in the folk movement, joining The Mitchell Trio, which was eventually rebranded Denver, Boise, and Johnson by the time Denver departed. Fellow member Michael Johnson would also go on to a successful solo career, having big AC hits in the seventies before topping the country charts in the mid-eighties.
Denver’s solo career heated up quickly. Shortly after leaving the trio, he released his first solo album in 1969. It wasn’t a runaway hit, but it featured a song called “Leavin’ On a Jet Plane”, which became a #1 hit for Peter, Paul and Mary later that year. Two more solo albums floundered until he had his breakthrough as an artist with “Take Me Home, Country Roads.” It was a huge pop hit, reaching #2 on the Hot 100, and made a minor impression on the country chart as well.
Now a platinum-selling artist, Denver’s brand of folk slowly took a more country turn. Unlike Newton-John, who was embraced by country music more fully than pop music at first, country radio came on board after Denver was already a regular fixture on the pop charts, starting with “Annie’s Song” in 1974. After “Back Home Again” topped both charts, his subsequent singles in 1974 and 1975 would do better on the country charts, with “Thank God I’m a Country Boy” and “I’m Sorry” becoming #1 country hits.
Thus the controversial win for Entertainer, which in retrospect has more to do with Nashville’s xenophobia than anything else. Listen to Denver’s big hits alongside Nashville songs of the same era, and they don’t sound particularly less country than a lot of it, especially the records of Rich, his personal flamethrower.
Denver’s style of music laid the groundwork for everyone from Mac McAnally and Dan Seals to Kathy Mattea and Zac Brown Band, and while his star soon faded on pop radio, he still made regular appearances on the country charts, scoring a bit of a comeback in the eighties with the top ten hits “Some Days are Diamonds (Some Days are Stone)” and “Dreamland Express.” He also reached the top twenty with “Wild Montana Skies”, featuring the talents of Emmylou Harris on vocals.
Denver died tragically in a plane crash in 1997. While his contributions to country music were controversial at the time, memorials ran at both the Country Music Association awards and the Grammy Awards following his death, further solidifying the wide impact that this singer-songwriter made on contemporary music.
When the nominees were announced in August for the 44th annual CMA Awards, they sparked a firestorm of headlines –and thoughtful commentary by critics and fans alike– thanks to the CMA voters’ surprisingly bold moves. It’s all about change this year, as the voters revamped the ballot with a slew of fresh faces in almost all of the big categories.
How will it all play out? We’ll know for sure on Wednesday at 8pm Eastern, but before Gwenyth Paltrow throws on her cowboy boots, check out our staff picks and predictions and join the discussion in the comments below. And be sure to drop by Wednesday night for all of the CU live blog madness!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Lady Antebellum
Miranda Lambert – Kevin
Brad Paisley
Keith Urban
Zac Brown Band – Leeann, Dan, Tara
Kevin: Among the five nominees, Miranda Lambert has best represented the genre this year.
Leeann: I’m torn between Lambert and the Zac Brown Band as most deserving this year. I recently saw Lambert’s show and wasn’t incredibly impressed, however. While I have not yet attended a ZBB show, theirs is one of the few spots that I look forward to at awards shows these days. Moreover, I’m impressed by how much of a following they had even before they made any mainstream records.
Dan: Of these five, Zac Brown Band had the second-most success this year (after Lady A) and made the second-best music (after Lambert), so that’s pretty good standing. And I feel like giving this award to a grassroots act would be a good way for the industry to greet the future.
Tara: I’m consistently impressed by Zac Brown Band’s live performances, and it would be really refreshing to see them win – so I’ll go with them. (But I’m still disappointed that the first year my head and heart align on Carrie Underwood deserving an EOTY award, I can’t support her. I’m holding out for 2012…)
Will Win:
Lady Antebellum
Miranda Lambert – Tara
Brad Paisley – Kevin, Leeann, Dan
Keith Urban
Zac Brown Band
Kevin: I’ve probably learned nothing from last year’s Swift sweep by going with Paisley again, but he’s the only nominee of veteran stature who hasn’t won yet.
Leeann: I can’t imagine that Paisley won’t finally win this one.
Dan: I was going to guess Lady A, since they’re sort of 2010′s “flavor of the year” the way Taylor Swift was 2009′s. But when I think about it, Swift’s ascent was greater and more gradual, and she stood in contrast to the rest of her nominee pool (four male veterans) in a way Lady A don’t with theirs (in which they’re one of three new competitors). So, Paisley.
Tara: I have no rationale. My gut says Lambert.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Dierks Bentley – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
George Strait
Keith Urban
Kevin: Bentley made the best music this year.
Leeann: Bentley may not have the best technical voice out of these nominees, but he has the most interesting and distinctive of them, which is always something that I gravitate toward. Also, I agree with Kevin that he’s made the best music this year.
Dan: Shelton and Bentley are the only ones in this pool who made significant career strides this year – Shelton at radio, and Bentley creatively. Since I’m backing someone else in the Album category, this is where I’d like to see Bentley recognized for following his muse.
Tara: I guess Up on the Ridge is as good a reason as any to fall off the Brad-for-MVOTY bandwagon. He’s a close second for me, though.
Will Win:
Dierks Bentley – Kevin, Dan
Brad Paisley – Leeann, Tara
Blake Shelton
George Strait
Keith Urban
Kevin: I can see the roots album giving Bentley an edge. Then again, Paisley could just repeat again, or Shelton may suddenly have deep support among voters. I say, Bentley by a nose.
Leeann: I think that voters will reflexively give this one to Paisley again.
Dan: I’ll ditto Kevin.
Tara: I can’t really see Paisley losing this one, but I think if he does lose to Bentley, it’ll be a telling moment.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Miranda Lambert – Kevin, Leeann, Dan
Martina McBride
Reba McEntire
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood – Tara
Kevin: Underwood and McEntire are the women who made my favorite singles from the eligibility period, but Lambert’s the only one who hasn’t won this award. She’s not overdue, but she’s due.
Leeann: Kevin’s right that Lambert is due to win this award now, not to mention that she’s my favorite female singer out of the bunch.
Dan: Lambert still isn’t at Underwood’s sales level, much less Swift’s, and I don’t see her catching up before traditional music sales die out altogether. Doesn’t matter, though: her habit of making creative music will sustain her regardless of industry conditions, and will elevate the genre in the long run. It’s time to look ahead.
Tara: I’m 50/50 on Lambert and Underwood. I’m not sure how to balance Lambert’s long overdue mega-year against Underwood’s continuous stream of solid success, ambassadorship and artistic growth. I’ll be happy either way, but personal investment’s got me in Underwood’s camp.
Will Win:
Miranda Lambert - Kevin, Dan, Tara
Martina McBride
Reba McEntire
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood- Leeann
Kevin: I’d be shocked if Lambert lost, and can’t even make a guess as to who she’d lose to, should she somehow lose.
Leeann: It’s between Lambert and Underwood, but I give Underwood the edge, especially since it’s somewhat surprising that she didn’t get an Entertainer nomination. Although Lambert has gained popularity in the past year, Underwood is still one of the two biggest females in the business and I refuse to predict that Swift will win the award.
Dan: Lambert’s had enough mainstream success this year to give tasteful voters an excuse to give her some props.
Tara: The voters love them some Lambert this year, and I think of all her nominations, this is the one she’s got in the bag.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
Brooks & Dunn
Joey + Rory – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland
Kevin: I’m assuming “Stuck Like Glue” was after the eligibility period, so I think actually making some music over the year is important. Joey + Rory are the only duo I like who have yet to win.
Leeann: I simply like them the most, but I know they don’t have a chance.
Dan: I mean, why not? Nobody on this ballot has done much but tour.
Tara: I’m not very excited about any of these acts right now, to be honest. It would just be heartwarming to see Joey + Rory pick this one up.
Will Win:
Brooks & Dunn – Kevin, Dan
Joey + Rory
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland – Leeann, Tara
Kevin: Sugarland’s year off helped guarantee a B&D victory lap, which would probably have happened anyway.
Leeann: It’s between Brooks & Dunn and Sugarland. I should just pick B&D because of their retirement, but I’m still going with Sugarland because of their popularity.
Dan: Brooks & Dunn, unless voters ignore the eligibility period and stick with Sugarland.
Tara: Isn’t the Brooks & Dunn retirement thing kind of old news by now, or am I just out of touch?
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
Lady Antebellum – Tara
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts
The Band Perry
Zac Brown Band – Kevin, Leeann, Dan
Kevin: Let’s start getting some variety in this category, instead of having Lady A own it for five years.
Leeann: They’re the only group that I like right now.
Dan: I’ll probably be rooting for Little Big Town come ACM season, but for now…
Tara: I don’t want Lady A to own this for five years, either, but I do think they deserve to win this year. At least in my opinion, their huge success on the charts and with album sales can be attributed much to their ability to (I know, I know – I’m a broken record) hone in on specific emotion and deliver it in a way that people can really connect with. There’s some meat (and a heck of a lot of potential) behind their success that tends to go unnoticed.
Will Win:
Lady Antebellum – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts
The Band Perry
Zac Brown Band
Kevin: Lady A and Zac BB are both very popular with voters, but I’m thinking that this is the only race where voters can reward Lady A for dominating at retail this year.
Leeann: Ditto to Kevin.
Dan: New Artist will be ZBB’s consolation prize.
Tara: …And I think the voters will agree with my pick, if not for the same reasons.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
Luke Bryan
Easton Corbin
Jerrod Niemann
Chris Young – Leeann
Zac Brown Band - Kevin, Dan, Tara
Kevin: ZBB is in another league, which makes me wish they still called this the Horizon Award.
Leeann: It’s weird to see ZBB here considering their nominations elsewhere, so I think that Chris Young has the most potential of the remaining nominees.
Dan: I’d love to see Young take this, but ZBB can’t be denied.
Tara: This is a great line-up, but there’s no question that ZBB deserves this win.
Will Win:
Luke Bryan
Easton Corbin
Jerrod Niemann
Chris Young
Zac Brown Band – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Kevin: ZBB is nominated for Entertainer of the Year, much like Ricky Skaggs was when he won Horizon in 1982. (Skaggs also won Male Vocalist, which means I may have to rethink my pick for Vocal Group, too.)
Leeann: Kevin’s argument is too compelling not to follow. Also, they are the most popular of the nominees, therefore, probably the most deserving.
Dan: Everyone here but Niemann has had a significant breakthrough. With ZBB in the mix, though, it’s no contest.
Tara: It’s a funky set-up to have ZBB nominated for both the top and bottom (figuratively) prizes, and I think this one will play out exactly the way Kevin explained it.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Dierks Bentley, Up on the Ridge – Leeann
Lady Antebellum, Need You Now
Miranda Lambert, Revolution – Dan, Tara
George Strait, Twang
Carrie Underwood, Play On – Kevin
Kevin: I have all five of these albums, and Underwood’s is the one that I listen to the most, with Strait a not-too-close second. In 2010, of course, “listening to an album” really means “how many songs do I pull off the album and put on a play list,” which has Underwood ahead by three tracks.
Leeann: If I follow Kevin’s test, Bently wins with Lambert as a close second. Bentley’s is, hands down, my favorite album of these choices. I’d love to see something this different from the mainstream win.
Dan: Also employing Kevin’s test, I flip-flop Leeann’s first and second choices. Only about two thirds of Revolution click for me a year later, but those two thirds have helped redefined what I thought modern country could be (still flipping about “Me and Your Cigarettes”), and the stray third at least tried.
Tara: I’m not going to follow Kevin’s test: I don’t play Revolution quite as much as three of the other albums on here, but I feel it’s the most deserving. It’s sharp, smart and an excellent example of an artist taking her potential by the horns.
Will Win:
Dierks Bentley, Up on the Ridge
Lady Antebellum, Need You Now
Miranda Lambert, Revolution – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
George Strait, Twang
Carrie Underwood, Play On
Kevin: I really do think Lambert will sweep. I think she should’ve won for her last album, which wasn’t even nominated, but I’m not going to complain about an ambitious album getting the prize.
Leeann: I’m guessing either Lambert or Underwood. Although Lambert has the better album, Underwood has the slight edge because it sold better. I wouldn’t be especially surprised if Lady A takes it though.
Dan: Seems to me like a toss-up between Lady A’s commercial favorite and Lambert’s critical one. Lambert?
Tara: This is Lambert’s to lose, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Lady A (or maybe Bentley?) snatched it.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
Easton Corbin, “A Little More Country Than That”
Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now”
Miranda Lambert, “The House That Built Me” – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Kevin: It’s the big chunk of meat in a category of mashed potatoes and candied apples.
Leeann: Kevin just made me really hungry, therefore, kind of distracted. It’s a good thing that my choice doesn’t need justification then.
Dan: “Need You Now” had the biggest impact, of course, but “The House That Built Me” was no slouch either – four weeks at #1 – and was arguably the riskiest, most rewarding release. Also of note: she sang it real pretty.
Tara: “Need You Now” and “The House That Built Me” are performed equally well, but “House” is the better-written song. I’ll go with “House” on the basis of that, but I do think country music will be represented justly either way. Both songs resonate with pure, compelling sentiment.
Will Win:
Easton Corbin, “A Little More Country Than That”
Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now” - Dan, Tara
Miranda Lambert, “The House That Built Me” - Kevin, Leeann
Kevin: I think Lady A would have a better shot if they hadn’t won last year for “I Run to You.”
Leeann: It’s simply the clear winner.
Dan: Again, somewhat for diversity’s sake, I’ll guess that many voters have already forgotten about “I Run to You” – I certainly have – and will use this category to recognize the biggest hit, while they use Song to recognize the best one.
Tara: I’m jumping on Dan’s train…
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“A Little More Country Than That” – Rory Lee Feek, Don Poythress & Wynn Varble
“Need You Now” – Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
“The House That Built Me” – Tom Douglas & Allen Shamblin – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Kevin: Overall, I think that “Need You Now” is a better Single than Song, and that “The House That Built Me” is a better Song than Single, but “House” is better than “Need” on both counts.
Leeann: I’m just being repetative now. It’s the best single and song of the year.
Dan: It’s the deepest-cutting of the five and the most unique.
Tara: “The House That Built Me” is, quite simply, beautifully written.
Will Win:
“A Little More Country Than That” – Rory Lee Feek, Don Poythress & Wynn Varble
“Need You Now” – Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott – Kevin
“The House That Built Me” – Tom Douglas & Allen Shamblin – Leeann, Dan, Tara
Kevin: Here’s where they can honor “Need You Now” without shortchanging Lambert.
Leeann: I just see “House” sweeping in all possible categories.
Dan: They often manage to pick the actual best song of the five, especially when that song is also the most “serious.”
Tara: This just seems way to obvious; I don’t see how the voters could bypass the most clearly deserving song.
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
Dierks Bentley featuring Jamey Johnson & Miranda Lambert, “Bad Angel” – Tara
Kenny Chesney with Dave Matthews, “I’m Alive”
Alan Jackson with Lee Ann Womack, “‘Til the End” – Leeann, Dan
Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins, “Hillbilly Bone” – Kevin
Zac Brown Band featuring Kid Rock, “Can’t You See”
Kevin: I don’t find any of these five songs particularly compelling, so I’ll go with the two artists who are longest overdue for some CMA love.
Leeann: I’m not big on any of these either, but the Jackson/Womack collaboration is the one I like the most if I have to choose.
Dan: I’d be fine with either “Til the End” or “Bad Angel”. Whatevs.
Tara: The Jackson/Womack song falls squarely within my typical taste, but “Bad Angel” gets under my skin – in a good way. It’s just a really cool record.
Will Win:
Dierks Bentley featuring Jamey Johnson & Miranda Lambert, “Bad Angel”
Zac Brown Band featuring Kid Rock, “Can’t You See”
Kevin: Its presence in the Single category makes “Hillbilly Bone” the most likely winner.
Leeann: It’s the most mainstream of all the choices.
Dan: “Bad Angel” could play a welcome spoiler, since all three of the artists behind it command a lot of respect right now. I still see this going to the hit, though.
Tara: I’m predicting the big boys will win this one. It’s a decent song, but it makes me laugh that it gets as much love as it does – I mean, this is the song that has Adkins admitting that he’s “always wanted to sing a bone song”…!
Kevin: Lambert made the two best clips, with the humor of “Liar” outpacing the literalism of “House.”
Dan: The “House” video is beautifully conceived and directed, but somehow the “White Liar” one just sticks out more. Maybe it’s because “White Liar” is a thinner song, so the video has more of a chance to establish its own identity.
Tara: The “White Liar” video is the brightest and most creative of the bunch.
Even in Grammy’s darkest hours, CU brings its picking powers!
- Superhero television show about our blog from the 50′s.
We won’t be live-blogging this time around, but will be reacting to the show in a full post tomorrow, and welcome your reactions in comments on this post. The awards telecast starts at 8 pm Eastern, and I imagine there will be some red carpet action in the hour prior.
Record of the Year
Picks
Beyonce, “Halo” – Kevin
Black Eyed Peas, “I Gotta Feeling”
Kings of Leon, “Use Somebody” - Tara
Lady GaGa, “Poker Face” - Dan
Taylor Swift, “You Belong with Me”
Predictions
Beyonce, “Halo”
Black Eyed Peas, “I Gotta Feeling”
Kings of Leon, “Use Somebody” – Kevin, Dan, Tara
Lady GaGa, “Poker Face”
Taylor Swift, “You Belong with Me”
Kevin: Am I wrong for preferring Eric Cartman’s rendition of “Poker Face” over the original? This is a pretty lightweight slate of contenders. I really like “Halo”, but I suspect Kings of Leon will win, simply because it’s the only rock song in a lineup of pop hits.
Dan: “Poker Face” just feels very representative of popular music in 2009. I wouldn’t whine if it got passed over so that “Bad Romance” could take this award next year, though.
Tara: I would’ve pulled for “Single Ladies” in a heartbeat had it been submitted, but “Use Somebody” is just as deserving of this award. It’s a fantastic song even outside the context of its moment in pop culture, and it’s the kind of larger-than-life song that the voters have picked to win in the past.
Album of the Year
Picks
Beyonce, I Am…Sasha Fierce
Black Eyed Peas, The E.N.D.
Lady GaGa, The Fame – Kevin, Tara
Dave Matthews Band, Big Whiskey and the Groogrux King
Taylor Swift, Fearless - Dan
Predictions
Beyonce, I Am…Sasha Fierce
Black Eyed Peas, The E.N.D.
Lady GaGa, The Fame
Dave Matthews Band, Big Whiskey and the Groogrux King - Kevin
Taylor Swift, Fearless - Dan, Tara
Kevin: I’d like to see dance music get some respect in the big category, even if there are a half-dozen Madonna albums at this point that would’ve been worthier winners than The Fame. Again, I think the Top 40 votes are going to be split, leaving Dave Matthews Band the winners.
Dan: In little over a year, Fearless has grown from success story to cultural artifact. It’s that rare pop album that seems to have a personality all its own, like Jagged Little Pill in a yellow sundress (and sung about as well). I could see anyone but the Peas taking this, but I think Swift’s support in both Nashville and the Top 40 crowd will take her to the top.
Tara: I have to say I was fairly shocked to see Swift’s truckload of Grammy nominations, so I’m having a little trouble wrapping my mind around the Academy’s thought process – but, I suppose a Swift win in this category is inevitable. However, I fully back Lady GaGa, who is the perfect storm of creativity, vision, swagger and raw vocal talent (remember that, pop world?). (more…)
Since this was a solo blog, doing a Grammy Wish List has been an annual tradition. I’m not too excited about this year’s Grammys, to be honest. 2009 was a weak year in my opinion, and the shortened 11-month eligibility period didn’t help matters. But a tradition is a tradition, so here are my picks in the eleven categories that I care about this year:
* denotes my personal wish:
Record of the Year
Beyoncé, “Halo” *
The Black Eyed Peas, “I Gotta Feeling”
Kings of Leon, “Use Somebody”
Lady Gaga, “Poker Face”
Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me”
It’s always nice to see a country radio hit in there, but I honestly can’t stand “You Belong With Me.” I dig the Kings of Leon song, but the record that I enjoy the most here is “Halo.” Some pundits have suggested that Beyoncé threw her chances at this trophy by submitting “Halo” instead of “Single Ladies”, but I like that song even less than “You Belong With Me.” Love “Halo”, though.
Song of the Year
Lady Gaga & RedOne, “Poker Face”
Hod David & Musze, “Pretty Wings”
Thaddis Harrell, Beyoncé Knowles, Terius Nash & Christopher Stewart, “Single Ladies (Put a Ring On It)”
Caleb Followill, Jared Followill, Matthew Followill & Nathan Followill, “Use Somebody” *
Liz Rose & Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me”
Great to see Liz Rose in there, too, but I still can’t stand the song. I think “Use Somebody” is a great composition that could easily be a hit in other formats if the right artist covered it. Are you listening, Sugarland?
Best New Artist
Zac Brown Band *
Keri Hilson
MGMT
Silversun Pickups
The Ting Tings
Zac Brown Band don’t quite live up to the hype, but they come a lot closer than last year’s nominee, Lady Antebellum.
Best Country Album
Zac Brown Band, The Foundation
George Strait, Twang *
Taylor Swift, Fearless
Keith Urban, Defying Gravity
Lee Ann Womack, Call Me Crazy
There isn’t an album here that is built for more than cherry-picking. Strait’s set has the most cherries.
Best Female Country Vocal Performance
Miranda Lambert, “Dead Flowers”
Martina McBride, “I Just Call You Mine”
Taylor Swift, “White Horse”
Carrie Underwood, “Just a Dream” *
Lee Ann Womack, “Solitary Thinkin’”
The only women who brought their A-game to this category are Swift and Underwood. “White Horse” might be the better song, but Underwood’s is the better vocal performance by a country mile.
Best Male Country Vocal Performance
Trace Adkins, “All I Ask For Anymore”
Billy Currington, “People Are Crazy”
Jamey Johnson, “High Cost of Living”
George Strait, “Living For the Night” *
Keith Urban, “Sweet Thing”
I love the Strait song, so it’s my pick, but this is one of the only strong categories this year and I wouldn’t mind seeing any of these five win.
Best Country Performance by a Duo or Group With Vocals
Brooks & Dunn, “Cowgirls Don’t Cry”
Zac Brown Band, “Chicken Fried”
Lady Antebellum, “I Run to You”
Rascal Flatts, “Here Comes Goodbye”
Sugarland, “It Happens” *
No A-game here, but Sugarland’s B-game is better than the rest.
Best Country Vocal Collaboration
Dierks Bentley & Patty Griffin, “Beautiful World”
Kenny Chesney & Mac McAnally, “Down the Road”
Brad Paisley & Keith Urban, “Start a Band”
Carrie Underwood & Randy Travis, “I Told You So” *
Lee Ann Womack & George Strait, “Everything But Quits”
Some amazing pairings here, but Underwood and Travis are the only ones with the material to match the talent.
Best Female Pop Vocal Performance
Adele, “Hometown Glory”
Beyoncé, “Halo”
Katy Perry, “Hot N Cold”
Pink, “Sober” *
Taylor Swift, “You Belong With Me”
Pink is an awesome songwriter, and easily the most substantial female pop star to come along in the last decade. “Sober” is one of her best.
Best Pop Vocal Album
The Black Eyed Peas, The End
Colbie Caillat, The Breakthrough
Kelly Clarkson, All I Ever Wanted
The Fray, The Fray
Pink, Funhouse *
It’s not quite as good as I’m Not Dead, but it comes close.
Best Dance Recording
The Black Eyed Peas, “Boom Boom Pow”
David Guetta and Kelly Rowland, “When Love Takes Over”
The 201 Greatest Singles of the Decade, Part 4: #140-#121
#140 “Who Says You Can’t Go Home”
Bon Jovi featuring Jennifer Nettles
2005
Peak: #1
Packed as country music has been lately with rocked-up little singalongs, perhaps it was only natural that one of the leading bands in rocked-up little singalongs should cross over for a bit to show everybody how it’s done. It was newcomer Nettles, though, who stole this show, driving Bon Jovi’s ditty home with an infectiously joyful performance. – Dan Milliken
#139
“God’s Gonna Cut You Down”
Johnny Cash
2006
Peak: Did not chart
The arrangement is cool enough, but it’s Cash’s stoic, slicing vocal performance that makes his version of this song so memorable. – Tara Seetharam (more…)
The CMA Awards are upon us again, and I must say that this is the most underwhelming lineup I’ve ever seen, and I started watching the show back in 1991. We’ll be back to live blog the festivities on Wednesday night. In the meantime, enjoy our personal picks in each category, along with who we think will actually win.
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley – Leeann, Tara
George Strait
Taylor Swift – Kevin, Dan
Keith Urban
Will Win:
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley – Kevin, Leeann, Tara
George Strait
Taylor Swift – Dan
Keith Urban
Kevin: Much like the field finally cleared for him in the Male Vocalist race two years ago, I expect that this is Paisley’s year to win with his sixth nomination. I think Taylor Swift deserves to win, though. There’s no getting around the fact that she’s the biggest thing out there right now.
Leeann: I won’t be shocked (or really even disappointed) if Taylor Swift picks it up, but I really feel it’s finally Brad’s year.
Dan: Swift is the face of the genre right now, and she’s putting out better-written material than many of the veterans in this category. It looks like a race between her and Paisley, and I think she may actually get it.
Tara: It wouldn’t be inappropriate for Swift to take this award, and I would much (understatement) prefer her to win this over the vocalist award. But to me, Paisley is the all-around entertainer, and I think it’s his year to be recognized.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley – Leeann, Tara
Darius Rucker
George Strait – Dan
Keith Urban – Kevin
Will Win:
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Darius Rucker
George Strait
Keith Urban
Leeann: I have no doubt that Paisley will win again, as he has had a strong year and the CMAs tend to prefer him for this award. While I think Urban is technically a very worthy opponent, the combination of Paisley’s warm voice and stronger album makes me continue to root for him. I’d also be just as happy if Strait won, however, and feel that his and Paisley’s albums were the strongest of the year.
Dan: Looks like an easy Paisley win, but I’ll give Strait the nod for all-around strength this past year.
Tara: I don’t anticipate that Paisley’s winning streak will be broken. I’m pulling for him on the strength of his material, but wouldn’t mind one bit if Urban took the award. Just please, CMAs, don’t give it to Rucker!
Kevin: Paisley’s poised to pick up his third trophy, with his only real competition being five-time winner George Strait. I’d give a fourth trophy to previous winner Keith Urban over the rest of the field. He really sang rings around the rest of ‘em when comparing their latest albums.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Miranda Lambert - Leeann
Martina McBride
Reba McEntire
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood – Kevin, Dan, Tara
Will Win:
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Reba McEntire
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Dan: I tend to find Underwood boring, but I do think she released some of her better singles this past year. Swift just isn’t a strong enough vocalist to merit this prize, and I’d rather see Lambert win in a year where she has more momentum going, which could well be next year.
Tara: It will no doubt spark controversy when Underwood takes her fourth trophy and joins the ranks of Reba McEntire and Martina McBride, and that’s another discussion all together – but looking at the nominees for this year, it’s clear she deserves to win. In terms of sheer vocal talent, few artists in the genre come close to her. I’d love to see Lambert take this award (and Underwood would too!), but like Dan, I don’t think it’s her time just yet.
Kevin: I won’t believe a different winner in this race until I see it. I was underwhelmed by the latest albums from Lambert, McBride, McEntire, and Swift, and quite frankly, Underwood is the only lady of the five to put out more than one single this year that I actually really liked (“Just a Dream”, “I Told You So.”) I remain in her corner.
Leeann: Carrie will deserve to win this award when she wins it this year. I, however, still prefer Lambert’s voice and feel that her output (album) is the most interesting of the nominees.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
Big & Rich
Brooks & Dunn
Joey + Rory
Montgomery Gentry
Sugarland – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Will Win:
Big & Rich
Brooks & Dunn
Joey + Rory
Montgomery Gentry
Sugarland – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Tara: Sugarland continues to excite me, and I think they deserve this award again.
Kevin: I love Joey + Rory, but Sugarland have really been blowing me away lately. I’d pick them for Entertainer if they’d been nominated.
Leeann: I’d technically love for Joey + Rory to win, but I know full well that Sugarland is the duo that truly deserves to win based upon their impact this year.
Dan: Sugarland. But I want to talk to whoever is picking their singles.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
Eagles
Lady Antebellum – Tara
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band – Kevin, Leeann, Dan
Will Win:
Eagles
Lady Antebellum – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band
Kevin: I find Zac Brown Band more interesting, and I think they have a real shot at winning this. I suspect Lady Antebellum has a bit more industry support, though, so I’ll give them the edge.
Leeann: Lady A will win because they’ve got more industry support and popularity with radio, but the Zac Brown Band has certainly put out more interesting music and have a refreshingly unique sound that deserves to be rewarded.
Dan: Pretty much what Kevin and Leeann said. “Chicken Fried” notwithstanding.
Tara: It’s definitely a race between Zac Brown Band and Lady Antebellum, and I can understand why my co-bloggers are rooting for the former. But even if Lady Antebellum’s talent needs a little cultivating, their music strikes a very personal chord with me, and I’ll be thrilled when they take this award. Can you believe Rascal Flatts might actually walk away from an awards show empty-handed?
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
Randy Houser
Jamey Johnson – Dan
Jake Owen
Darius Rucker
Zac Brown Band – Kevin, Leeann, Tara
Will Win:
Randy Houser
Jamey Johnson – Kevin
Jake Owen
Darius Rucker – Dan, Leeann, Tara
Zac Brown Band
Kevin: A weak lineup that speaks volumes about why country music is where it is today. I think Zac Brown Band should win. They’ve really been the real breakthrough act of the five. But I suspect in this battle of “Honky Tonk Badonkadonk” co-writers, Jamey Johnson will emerge victorious.
Leeann: While I’m tempted to root for Jamey Johnson, I think Zac Brown Band has a chance of keeping me intrigued over the next few years (even if they fall out of the mainstream), though I don’t think they’ve reached their potential just yet. I predict that Darius Rucker will actually win, however, as he’s been the most successful in the last year.
Dan: Time will tell whether Johnson is able to remain a strong artistic force, but I’d say he has as good a chance as any of these five if he can keep from getting self-important. Rucker is the biggest star on the ballot, though, and I suspect he’ll squeak the win over Johnson and Zac Brown Band.
Tara: Johnson and Zac Brown Band are both deserving recipients of this award, but I personally prefer the band’s music. With the commercial success Rucker’s seen in the past year, though, I think it’s his award to lose. Not too sure how I feel about that.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Jamey Johnson, That Lonesome Song – Leeann, Dan
Brad Paisley, American Saturday Night – Tara
Sugarland, Love on the Inside – Kevin
Taylor Swift, Fearless
Keith Urban, Defying Gravity
Will Win:
Jamey Johnson, That Lonesome Song – Kevin, Dan, Tara
Brad Paisley, American Saturday Night
Sugarland, Love on the Inside
Taylor Swift, Fearless – Leeann
Keith Urban, Defying Gravity
Leeann: While Johnson’s album hasn’t really stuck with me over the past year or so, I still think it’s the best album out of the bunch. I think Swift will win, however, due to the volume of sales and hit singles.
Dan: All of these albums have strengths, but That Lonesome Song is the only one that makes me optimistic about country music’s future. I expect it to triumph, though Swift’s has a great shot, too.
Tara: Paisley’s album, to me, strikes that sweet balance of traditional and contemporary. I think it’s a strong, interesting and relevant album that epitomizes why Paisley is so deservingly successful. But Johnson will deserve this award when he takes it, and I recognize and appreciate his positive influence on mainstream country music.
Kevin: I expected more nods overall for Jamey Johnson. I think that the eligibility period hurt him, with the project less fresh in voters’ minds. But the CMA values traditional country more than any other awards organization, so I expect him to win this. I enjoy the Sugarland album far more than any of the other four, so I’m rooting for that one.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
“Chicken Fried” – Zac Brown Band
“I Run to You” – Lady Antebellum
“In Color” – Jamey Johnson – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
“People Are Crazy” – Billy Currington
“Then” – Brad Paisley
Will Win:
“Chicken Fried” – Zac Brown Band
“I Run to You” – Lady Antebellum
“In Color” – Jamey Johnson – Kevin, Leeann, Tara
“People Are Crazy” – Billy Currington – Dan
“Then” – Brad Paisley
Dan: I’ve just got a bad feeling about that Currington single. “I Run To You” does have some smokin’ production, but “In Color” is the only one of the five I can still stand.
Tara: Ouch. I’m pleased that “I Run to You” is nominated as it’s a personal favorite, but I don’t think any song other than “In Color” is deserving of this award. Again…ouch.
Kevin: This is the weakest lineup in the history of this category.
Leeann: Johnson’s song feels old to me now, but it’s the best song in this underwhelming category, though I’m sure David Letterman disagrees. While I like the production on “People Are Crazy” the best in this line-up, the hook (not to mention the frustratingly weak story development) is just lame.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“Chicken Fried” – Zac Brown & Wyatt Durette
“I Told You So” – Randy Travis – Kevin, Leeann, Tara
“In Color” – Jamey Johnson – Dan
“People Are Crazy” – Bobby Braddock & Troy Jones
“Then” – Chris Dubois, Ashley Gorley & Brad Paisley
Will Win:
“Chicken Fried” – Zac Brown & Wyatt Durette
“I Told You So” – Randy Travis – Leeann
“In Color” – Jamey Johnson – Kevin, Dan, Tara
“People Are Crazy” – Bobby Braddock & Troy Jones
“Then” – Chris Dubois, Ashley Gorley & Brad Paisley
Tara: I would absolutely love to see Travis take this award; Underwood’s success with the song proves that the best-written country songs are timeless. I think “In Color” has more pull, though.
Kevin: I think Johnson will win, but kudos to Carrie Underwood for recognizing the value of the Randy Travis-penned gem and making it a hit all over again.
Leeann: This is not one of my favorite Randy Travis songs, but for nostalgia’s sake, I’m rooting for him to win this one. I even think it has a chance of winning, since it was a hit song for one of today’s country music’s most popular artists. I think the Paisley composition is, by far, the weakest though.
Dan: I like probable-winner “In Color” marginally more than “I Told You So.” Any of the other three winning would hurt me way down deep.
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
“Cowgirls Don’t Cry” – Brooks & Dunn featuring Reba McEntire
“Down the Road” – Kenny Chesney with Mac McAnally
“Everything But Quits” – Lee Ann Womack with George Strait
“I Told You So” – Carrie Underwood featuring Randy Travis – Kevin, Tara
“Old Enough” – The Raconteurs with Ricky Skaggs and Ashley Monroe – Leeann, Dan
“Start a Band” – Brad Paisley and Keith Urban
Will Win:
“Cowgirls Don’t Cry” – Brooks & Dunn featuring Reba McEntire
“Down the Road” – Kenny Chesney with Mac McAnally
“Everything But Quits” – Lee Ann Womack with George Strait
“I Told You So” – Carrie Underwood featuring Randy Travis – Kevin, Dan, Tara
“Old Enough” – The Raconteurs with Ricky Skaggs and Ashley Monroe
“Start a Band” – Brad Paisley and Keith Urban – Leeann
Kevin: Will the CMA really pass up the chance to give a trophy to Randy Travis for the first time in 21 years? I hope not.
Leeann: Paisley’s and Urban’s collaboration was originally accidentally left off the ballot, but the superstar pairing is the most likely to win. Conversely, I suspect that the inclusion of the collaboration with Ricky Skaggs and Ashley Monroe was likely an accident, but I’d still love to see this dark horse nomination win. It’s certainly the most interesting song of the category. I might have gone for the Underwood/Travis pairing if Travis’ inclusion didn’t seem so random. I liked Underwood’s original version better, as Vince Gill’s harmony seemed more natural.
Dan: It’s totally between “I Told You So” and “Start A Band”, but I’m pulling for the underdog Raconteurs record, too. I like my collaborations a little spontaneous like that, and it’s always great to see outsiders included in the CMA fold.
Tara: While I have a particular soft spot for “Down the Road,” which I thought was one of the best singles of 2008, it should come as no surprise that I’m pulling for the beautiful, rough-and-pure “I Told You So.” I think it will easily win.
Music Video of the Year
Should Win:
“Boots On” – Randy Houser
“Love Story” – Taylor Swift
“People Are Crazy” – Billy Currington
“Start a Band” – Brad Paisley and Keith Urban
“Troubadour” – George Strait – Kevin, Dan, Tara
Will Win:
“Boots On” – Randy Houser
“Love Story” – Taylor Swift – Kevin, Dan, Tara
“People Are Crazy” – Billy Currington
“Start a Band” – Brad Paisley and Keith Urban
“Troubadour” – George Strait
Dan: I enjoy the Strait video most, but Swift’s is the flashiest, and that tends to win out.
Tara: Strait’s video is poignant and tastefully done. I never understood the appeal of Swift’s Shakespearean video, but apparently a whole generation of country music fans does. My money’s on Swift.
Kevin: I think the Swift fairytale will get the most votes, but the Strait clip hypnotizes me every time it’s on. Who knew a simple slide show could be so powerful and such a perfect fit for a song?
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
Eddie Bayers (drums)
Paul Franklin (steel guitar) – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Dan Huff (guitar)
Brent Mason (guitar)
Mac McAnally (guitar)
Will Win:
Eddie Bayers (drums)
Paul Franklin (steel guitar)
Dan Huff (guitar)
Brent Mason (guitar)
Mac McAnally (guitar) – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Dan: I should really start paying more attention to this kind of thing. But I know Paul Franklin’s been doing steel for everyone from Lyle Lovett to Rascal Flatts in the past year. Respek!
Tara: Franklin’s the one I’m most familiar with, and I agree with Kevin and Dan that he deserves it. I’ll admit I’m not entirely sure how to gauge who’ll win this year, but I suppose I’d go with McAnally again.
Kevin: I guess that McAnally will repeat his victory from last year. The other previous winners won quite a bit of time ago – Dann Huff in 2001 and 2004, Brent Mason in 1997 and 1998. My sympathy goes to Eddie Bayers, who is nominated for the tenth time and has yet to win. I have no choice but to pull for Paul Frankin, though, who has lost this award sixteen times. Here’s hoping that seventeen’s a charm!
Leeann: Please don’t let it be Dann Huff! That’s all I ask. Of course, I’m partial to the steel guitar, not to mention that it’s a shame that a steel guitar player has to work so hard to win a country music award.
It’s that time of year again! For each major category, we’ll look at who’s broken in since last year, who’s been booted out, plus some initial thoughts. As always, we invite you to share your own opinions in the comments. Without further ado:
Entertainer
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Keith Urban
Who’s In: Taylor Swift
Who’s Out: Sugarland
Snap Judgment: With Carrie Underwood and Sugarland a little out of the spotlight recently, it’s no shock to see the regular foursome of Chesney, Paisley, Strait and Urban prevail. Swift was a logical inclusion given her across-the-board dominance, but I gotta say that I’m surprised to see her acknowledged for it by the historically traditional-leaning CMA.
Male Vocalist
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Darius Rucker
George Strait
Keith Urban
Who’s In: Darius Rucker
Who’s Out: Alan Jackson
Snap Judgment: Pretty predicable. Rucker has shown he can get serious spins at radio, which is probably what won him this slot over Jamey Johnson.
Female Vocalist
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Reba McEntire
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Who’s In: Reba McEntire
Who’s Out: Alison Krauss
Snap Judgment: Again, no big surprises. Martina always hangs in there somehow, doesn’t she?
Vocal Duo
Big & Rich
Brooks & Dunn
Joey + Rory
Montgomery Gentry
Sugarland
Who’s In: Joey + Rory
Who’s Out: The Wreckers (finally!), oddly not Big & Rich
Snap Judgment: I guess there has to be at least one defunct act in this category every year, huh?
Vocal Group
Eagles
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band
Who’s In: Zac Brown Band
Who’s Out: Emerson Drive
Snap Judgment: I’m baffled to see the Eagles still here. I expect there will be a lot more shake-up in this category next year, with Love and Theft, Eli Young Band and The Lost Trailers all experiencing a rise in profile recently.
New Artist
Randy Houser
Jamey Johnson
Jake Owen
Darius Rucker
Zac Brown Band
Who’s In: Completely new line-up!
Snap Judgment: A strong group. Johnson, Rucker and Zac Brown Band are selling better than many of the veteran acts, so they’re the serious contenders this year, but all five nominees show great artistic potential.
Album
Brad Paisley, American Saturday Night
Jamey Johnson, That Lonesome Song
Sugarland, Love On The Inside
Taylor Swift, Fearless
Keith Urban, Defying Gravity
Snap Judgment: Probably as good a line-up as you could’ve hoped for. Never thought I’d live to see a CMA category where I thought Keith Urban had the weakest offering!
Single
“Chicken Fried” – Zac Brown Band
“I Run To You” – Lady Antebellum
“In Color” – Jamey Johnson
“People Are Crazy” – Billy Currington
“Then” – Brad Paisley
Snap Judgment: Sigh.
Song
“Chicken Fried” – Zac Brown & Wyatt Durette
“I Told You So” – Randy Travis
“In Color” – Jamey Johnson, Lee Thomas Miller & James Otto
“People Are Crazy” – Bobby Braddock & Troy Jones
“Then” – Brad Paisley, Chris DuBois and Ashley Gorley
Snap Judgment: I mean, it’s not like Randy Travis ever had his own hit with “I Told You So” or anything.
Musical Event
“Cowgirls Don’t Cry” – Brooks & Dunn featuring Reba McEntire
“Down The Road” – Kenny Chesney with Mac McAnally
“Everything But Quits” – Lee Ann Womack with George Strait
“I Told You So” – Carrie Underwood featuring Randy Travis
“Old Enough” – The Raconteurs featuring Ricky Skaggs and Ashley Monroe
“Start A Band” – Brad Paisley with Keith Urban
Snap Judgment: How in the world did that Raconteurs record sneak in there? Props, CMA!
Music Video
“Boots On” – Randy Houser
“Love Story” – Taylor Swift
“People Are Crazy” – Billy Currington
“Start A Band” – Brad Paisley with Keith Urban
“Troubadour” – George Strait
Snap Judgment: Not bad. Houser’s doesn’t have much, but the only one I outright dislike is Currington’s. It’s just another excuse for him to sit around looking scruffy on a beach.
My favorite band of the early and mid-nineties was Sawyer Brown. Former Star Search winners, they had a decent run of hits in the eighties, though their early albums are legendarily awful. But they found their artistic voice when lead singer Mark Miller began writing with Mac McAnally. Many of their biggest and best hits were written by one or both of them.
The end result was that Sawyer Brown became one of the only country acts that broke out in the last few years of the eighties to actually become far more commercially successful in the nineties.
Ten Essential Tracks
“The Race is On”
from the 1989 album The Boys Are Back
So much of their eighties work was disposable, but there’s a surprising charm to this revved up take on the George Jones classic. Even the Possum himself was a vocal fan of it.
“The Walk”
from the 1991 album Buick
This powerful single kicked off a string of five excellent singles that established Sawyer Brown as one of the strongest voices in country music.
“The Dirt Road”
from the 1992 album The Dirt Road
After a single that explored the major milestones of a father-son relationship, they followed with one about the life lessons taught in between those milestones.
“Some Girls Do”
from the 1992 album The Dirt Road
Finally, they find a way to be upbeat and fun without being goofy.
“Café On the Corner”
from the 1992 album Café On the Corner
The band reaches their creative peak, bringing the different faces of the early nineties recession into vivid focus.
“All These Years”
from the 1992 album Café On the Corner
This sparse ballad documents what is perhaps the most awkward conversation ever between husband and wife.
“Thank God For You”
from the 1993 album Outskirts of Town
A tongue-in-cheek list of thank yous aimed toward those responsible for the good life the man is leading.
“Hard to Say”
from the 1994 album Outskirts of Town
Plenty of clever wordplay is neatly embedded into a catchy melody.
“This Time”
from the 1995 album Greatest Hits 1990-1995
The lead single from the band’s second and far stronger hits collection features one of their most rootsy arrangements.
“(This Thing Called) Wantin’ and Havin’ It All”
from the 1995 album This Thing Called Wantin’ and Havin’ it All
A tent revival morality tale that still sounds relevant today.
Two Hidden Treasures
“Outskirts of Town”
From the 1993 album Outskirts of Town
Put this slow and simple portrait of country life up against all of the overblown party anthems that have dominated the radio this decade, and it quickly becomes clear what a parody of itself country music can become.
“Another Side”
From the 1997 album Six Days on the Road
A tale of two brothers on opposing sides of the Civil War. It’s far more poignant than you’d imagine.
Thus far, 2009′s releases have done little to fire up the charts, with most of this year’s strongest-selling albums being holdovers from 2008. While Rascal Flatts, Jason Aldean, and Keith Urban have sold strongly, the chart remains dominated by last year’s releases from Taylor Swift, Sugarland, Zac Brown Band, Lady Antebellum, Darius Rucker, and Jamey Johnson.
So what’s left for 2009? Here’s what we know so far:
New Releases
Carrie Underwood will release her third studio album on November 3, with a lead single going to radio this fall. Her previous set, Carnival Ride, is nearing sales of 3 million, and produced four #1 singles and a #2 single, all five of which were certified gold in their own right.
George Strait will release Twang on August 11. It’s the follow-up to his 33rd platinum album Troubadour, a set which produced his 43rd #1 single and earned him the first Grammy of his career, along with a pair of CMA trophies (Single and Album)
Miranda Lambert is readying Revolution for September 29. Lead single “Dead Flowers” is struggling at radio, but that’s never slowed her down at retail anyway.
Reba McEntire’s Valory debut Keep on Lovin’ You arrives August 18. Lead single “Strange” is approaching the top ten.
Willie Nelson releases another standards collection called American Classic on August 25.
Rosanne Cash will release The List, a covers album, on October 6.
Sarah Darling releases Every Monday Morning on July 28.
Mac McAnally’s Show Dog debut – Down By the River – comes out on August 4. McAnally recently scored a big hit teaming up with Kenny Chesney on “Down the Road”, and was the co-writer on several classic Sawyer Brown singles like “All These Years” and “Thank God For You.”
Mindy Smith releases Stupid Love on August 11.
Radney Foster and The Confessions release Revival on September 1, with guest appearances by Dierks Bentley and Darius Rucker.
Chris Young releases The Man I Want to Be on September 1.
Reissues and Compilations
Brooks & Dunn release the 30-track #1 Hits…and Then Some on September 8. Track listing here. The set is preceded by lead single “Indian Summer.” The duo’s previous set, Cowboy Town, was their first to fall short of gold certification. The new hits compilation is similar in set up to top-selling collections by George Strait, Toby Keith and Reba McEntire in recent years.
Wounded Bird just released 2-albums-on-1-CD collections for Kris Kristofferson on July 7. Eight albums are included from his 1972-1981 output
A pair of Tommy Cash’s albums from 1970 will combine on one CD on July 21; Tommy is the younger brother of Johnny Cash
Hank Snow’s 1958 album When Tragedy Struck is being remastered and reissued on August 11.
I’ll be picking up many of the above releases, but I have to say that I’m most looking forward to picking up all of the remastered Beatles albums and the Madonna anthology this fall.
What releases are you most looking forward to in the second half of 2009?
It’s that time of year again! The time when we all dutifully tune in to the CMA Awards show, raise our eyebrows at the “What the heck are they doing here?” award presenters, and afterwards complain about how totally un-country the whole show was. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I can’t wait.
Entertainer of the Year
Male Vocalist of the Year
Female Vocalist of the Year
Vocal Duo of the Year
Vocal Group of the Year
New Artist of the Year
Album of the Year
Single of the Year
Song of the Year
Musical Event of the Year
Music Video of the Year
Musician of the Year
Entertainer of the Year
Male Vocalist of the Year
Female Vocalist of the Year
Vocal Duo of the Year
Vocal Group of the Year
New Artist of the Year
Album of the Year
Single of the Year
Song of the Year
Musical Event of the Year
Music Video of the Year
Musician of the Year 
It’s that time of year again! For each major category, we’ll look at who’s broken in since last year, who’s been booted out, plus some initial thoughts. As always, we invite you to share your own opinions in the comments. Without further ado:
My favorite band of the early and mid-nineties was Sawyer Brown. Former Star Search winners, they had a decent run of hits in the eighties, though their early albums are legendarily awful. But they found their artistic voice when lead singer Mark Miller began writing with Mac McAnally. Many of their biggest and best hits were written by one or both of them.
Thus far, 2009′s releases have done little to fire up the charts, with most of this year’s strongest-selling albums being holdovers from 2008. While Rascal Flatts, Jason Aldean, and Keith Urban have sold strongly, the chart remains dominated by last year’s releases from Taylor Swift, Sugarland, Zac Brown Band, Lady Antebellum, Darius Rucker, and Jamey Johnson.
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