While the rest of the country fixates on “Nashville,” the 46th annual Country Music Association Awards air live from Music City with equal drama and ridiculousness November 1 at 7 p.m. CST. The CU staff picked and predicted the awards below. Chime in with your thoughts, and check back for our live blog on Thursday night!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Ben, Kevin
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Tara, Leeann
Will Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift – Tara, Leeann
Dan: I’ll probably never be able to fully embrace Aldean, but his impact on the genre remains undeniable, and once in a while he releases something like “Fly Over States” that lends some dimension to his hick-rock formula.
Tara: “Fly Over States” will land on my best-of-2012 list (I’m as surprised as you are), but I just can’t get behind Jason Aldean’s overall brand of country, regardless of his impact. That leaves me with Blake Shelton and Taylor Swift, and only the latter put out music to match her star in the eligibility period. Boring category.
Ben: Sadly, this category just keeps getting harder and harder for me to care about. I could still see Swift taking it, but an Aldean victory is almost certain to happen sooner or later, and I’m thinking this could be his year. Blake’s turn will come eventually, but not until after Aldean has had his.
Jonathan: Aldean has yet to release anything I’ve liked even a little bit, but this award has increasingly turned into Nashville’s way to say “thank you” to whoever is bringing the most cash back to Music Row, so Aldean is likely due for a pat on the back. On some level, Shelton’s heightened media presence is its own reward, but he’s the most likely spoiler here, since pop crossover stars like Swift rarely pull off repeat wins.
Kevin: Should win: Carrie Underwood. But since she’s not nominated, I’ll go with Jason Aldean, who has been the biggest country artist this past year. I expect he’ll win, too.
Leeann: While it’s completely baffling to me that Jason Aldean has taken off as he has, I wouldn’t be shocked if he won this award. I, however, feel that it’s far more likely that Taylor Swift will win again.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert – Leeann
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Will Win:
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift – Leeann
Carrie Underwood
Tara: I still believe Underwood’s best is yet to come, but she deserves respect from the industry and critics alike for taking the kind of creative, thematic and interpretive risks she took with Blown Away. Maybe come next year she’ll have more influence; this year, the award is still Lambert’s to lose. (And shout out to homegirl Clarkson, who may have no place in this category, but who gave us the best cover of “Go Rest High On That Mountain” that I’ve ever heard.)
Ben: In my perfect world, Carrie Underwood’s solid new music (which was released within this year’s eligibility period) would nab her the trophy. Miranda had the most radio success this year, and will almost surely emerge victorious, but I simply can’t endorse the idea of rewarding her for releasing two singles that were easily the worst duds of her career. Footnote: Country radio seriously needs to start supporting more female artists.
Jonathan: I adore Kelly Clarkson, and, based upon nearly a decade’s worth of concert performances, I’d argue that she has the best taste in country material of any of the women nominated, and I look forward to the day when she finally records a proper country album. But her nomination here is absurd. Fortunately, she’s not really in the running to win. This likely comes down to Lambert and Underwood. In the past, I’ve championed Lambert for her fearless artistic vision, and I’ve been highly critical of Underwood’s grossly over-praised and over-rewarded output. But, this year, I’d prefer to see Underwood recognized for what is far and away her career-best work than to see Lambert win for what is quite obviously her worst. I doubt the voters will agree.
Dan: Ditto the others, pretty much. Underwood’s taste in material has deepened, but what excites me most is that her interpretive abilities have, too. I never used to feel comfortable with those comparisons to the Trishas and Connies of the world. Now I do.
Kevin: It’s all been said. Underwood’s reached new heights of artistry while still maintaining her commercial relevance. I’d call her one of the best, but that would imply there’s anyone else in her league right now.
Leeann: Miranda Lambert is still my favorite out of these choices and Kelly Clarkson’s nomination is still confusing to me. I think the award is a toss up between Taylor and Carrie in all actuality though.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Blake Shelton – Leeann
Keith Urban
Will Win:
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan – Dan
Eric Church – Kevin
Blake Shelton – Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann
Keith Urban
Tara: Unlike last year’s crop of men, these five at least put out memorable if not entirely thoughtful material in the eligibility period. But Church is the only one who’s had a consistent vision, and what a difference that makes. I don’t see the voters dethroning Shelton, though.
Ben: I expect that the CMA is going to continue shoving the whole “Blake and Miranda are the new Tim and Faith!” idea down our throats, but Eric Church made the best music of the field by far, and country radio finally decided to get on board with it. Eric Church deserves this.
Jonathan: Church is the only one of the five who has released any strong material during the eligibility period, though I generally remain a fan of Urban’s. It’s hard to see either of those two men winning, though. Urban’s past his commercial peak, and Church is still too divisive a persona. I also think Aldean’s vocal limitations play against him here – see Chesney, Kenny, and his track record in Male Vocalist races – especially since he’s likely to be recognized elsewhere. That leaves Crest WhiteStrips to take on Shelton. I think Shelton gets another win before Bryan’s inevitable coronation here.
Dan: CMA has developed a bad habit of just voting for the incumbent. But Bryan has the most momentum right now, so what the hey; I’ll mix things up and call it Crest Whitestrips 2012.
Kevin: Gonna go out on a limb and say the best one takes it home this year. They’ve got to be itching to finally acknowledge Eric Church, right? Right???
Leeann: Blake Shelton has had a good year. I suppose he has a good, high profile chance of being rewarded for it.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town – Kevin
Zac Brown Band – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann
Will Win:
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum – Dan, Ben, Leeann
Little Big Town – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Zac Brown Band
Dan: Little Big Town’s album is too new, but their sudden momentum could power them to a spoiler win here anyway, depending on who Capitol gets behind. I’ll support them come ACM time; for now, give Zac Brown Band their freakin’ due.
Tara: Zac Brown Band and Little Big Town both put out stellar new music; the only major difference is timing. I support a ZBB win but won’t be disappointed if/when the “Pontoon”-fueled LBT steals this from the most complacent group in country music.
Ben: Zac Brown Band should win. Lady Antebellum will win. Déjà vu?
Jonathan: As much as logic points to another indefensible win for the most useless act in popular music, and as much as I want to see Zac Brown Band finally earn their long-overdue recognition, I’m calling this one an upset for the also-long-overdue Little Big Town. That karaoke video for “Pontoon” showed off just how deeply likedthey are by their peers, and now that they have the commercial stats, I think that that pervasive goodwill gives them the edge here.
Kevin: I think the red-hot momentum of Little Big Town could put them over the top. Zac Brown Band’s been my pick for a couple of years, but I really think they’re just treading water at this point.
Leeann: Zac Brown Band is far and away my favorite group of the nominees here, but Little Big Town’s talent is undeniable. I’d be happy if either of them won. I’m afraid Lady A will still win though.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
Big & Rich
Love and Theft
Sugarland
The Civil Wars – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin, Leeann
Thompson Square
Will Win:
Big & Rich
Love and Theft
Sugarland – Leeann
The Civil Wars – Kevin
Thompson Square – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Ben: Because The Civil Wars are good.
Jonathan: Per usual: Merge this category with Vocal Group to trim the fat. The only act here deserving of the recognition is the one with the longest of long-shots to win.
Dan: La la la.
Tara: So pointless.
Kevin: I’m going out on another limb, this time by thinking that the whole “massive commercial success without radio” thing will give the Civil Wars a Mavericks-style victory. I’d honestly rather be wrong in my predictions than be depressed before the show even airs.
Leeann: I don’t think Sugarland has had a particularly active year, but I think they might still win based on name recognition.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
Lee Brice – Ben, Tara, Leeann
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes – Dan, Kevin
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Will Win:
Lee Brice
Brantley Gilbert – Dan, Ben, Jonathan
Hunter Hayes – Kevin, Leeann, Tara
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Dan: Since none of these artists do it for me, I’d shrug it over to the technically skilled Hayes, who I think could be interesting in the future if he challenges himself to become more than a one-man boy-band. As Sawyer Brown and Keith Urban have proven, sometimes an artist earns their win in this category retroactively.
Tara: Hunter Hayes needs to rein it in a bit, but his chops have potential. Lee Brice needs to find better material, but his performances are believable. “Hard To Love” is one of my favorite guilty pleasures of the year, so I guess I’ll go with the latter?
Ben: Lee Brice strikes me as having the most potential of these nominees, but right now, I think the Brantley Gilbert virus has already spread too far.
Jonathan: Absolutely not.
Kevin: Hunter Hayes is the musical equivalent of those memes that show cats doing people things. He’s putting out real country music, and it’s adorable! All joking aside, I’m pulling for real country music wherever I can find it. Hayes is all I’ve got to work with here.
Leeann: I’m really not fond of any of these choices.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Luke Bryan, Tailgates and Tanlines
Eric Church, Chief – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin, Leeann
Miranda Lambert, Four the Record
Dierks Bentley, Home
Lady Antebellum, Own the Night
Will Win:
Luke Bryan, Tailgates and Tanlines
Eric Church, Chief – Dan, Kevin
Miranda Lambert, Four the Record – Ben, Tara
Dierks Bentley, Home
Lady Antebellum, Own the Night – Jonathan, Leeann
Dan: Everyone but Bentley’s got a shot, but my hopeful guess is that this is where the CMA will reward Church.
Tara: Chief and Four the Record both made big impressions on me last year, but only the former has held up with time. I’ll be optimistic and predict the CMA will reward its reigning Female Vocalist of the Year over its reigning Group of the Year. (I still can’t get over Own the Night winning a Grammy, y’all. Unbelievable.)
Ben: Church’s Chief is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field, but my gut is still predicting a Lambert and Shelton sweep, though there’s still a chance the voters may decide to reward that dreadful Lady A album instead.
Jonathan: Bright side: This is the last major “Album of the Year”-type award Own the Night is eligible to win. Downside: This is the last major “Album of the Year”-type award Own the Night will win, at the expense of far more deserving competition.
Kevin: I think Chief really made an impression, and I’m betting it was enough of one to win.
Leeann: I reflexively assume Lady A will win this award at this point, but I’m hoping for a Dierks Bentley or Eric Church win. Dierks Bentley’s album is quality and I feel Eric Church’s album is interesting and fresh.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“Even If It Breaks Your Heart” – Will Hoge and Eric Paslay – Dan, Jonathan, Tara
“God Gave Me You” – Dave Barnes
“Home” – Dierks Bentley, Dan Wilson and Brett Beavers – Kevin, Leeann
“Over You” – Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton
“Springsteen” – Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell – Ben
Will Win:
“Even If It Breaks Your Heart” – Will Hoge and Eric Paslay – Dan, Tara
“God Gave Me You” – Dave Barnes – Leeann
“Home” – Dierks Bentley, Dan Wilson and Brett Beavers
“Over You” – Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton – Ben, Jonathan
“Springsteen” – Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell – Kevin
Dan: I think I’m just being optimistic, but maybe the earnest Hoge/Paslay story of struggling for an artistic life will resonate with enough music-industry vets to overcome the bait-ishness of “Over You” and “Home.” Maybe?
Tara: I’d be fine with three of these five winning — and would even argue that, as a composition, “God Gave Me You” is solid — but “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” has the most soul. I’m not entirely sure where the votes will fall on this one, but maybe pop culture’s spotlight on Nashville will mean a win for the songwriters’ anthem?
Ben: I can’t picture this going to anyone but Lambert and Shelton. If the CMA intends to keep working this ridiculous power-couple nonsense, they have created a golden opportunity here, and I highly doubt the song’s awfulness will be any hindrance.
Jonathan: If knowing a song’s tragic backstory is a requirement for finding “meaning” in that song, then its songwriters have failed.
Kevin: I’m hoping the CMA voters sing Shelton and Lambert’s song back to them when filling out their ballots, and pick the strongest singer-songwriter in this race. Bentley’s cut is my personal favorite.
Leeann: I just have a feeling that the bland love song will win, but I’m hoping that the thoughtful ”Home” will prove me wrong.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem” – Kevin
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Dierks Bentley, “Home” – Leeann
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Eric Church, “Springsteen” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Will Win:
Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem” – Kevin
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You” – Ben, Leeann
Dierks Bentley, “Home” – Dan, Jonathan, Tara
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Dan: Feels like a toss-up, actually. I’d figure “Home” and “Springsteen” to duke it out, but remember that year when “I Saw God Today” randomly won?
Tara: “Home”’s graceful approach to patriotism is lovely and especially appreciated during this infuriating election season, but the song itself lacks spark. “Springsteen” is the better all-around record, and I think it’ll hold up with time, which is a lot more than I can say about the remaining three songs in the category.
Ben: I think “Springsteen” is going to be the song with the most staying power.
Jonathan: As fine a single as “Springsteen” is, I just can’t see the CMA rallying behind a song inspired by the Boss, especially not in an election year. Bentley’s thoughtful and relatively subtle brand of patriotism seems like a far safer bet.
Kevin: I think that Aldean’s track is the coolest sounding record of the five. Surface pleasures will suffice.
Leeann: Please not “Dirt Road Anthem”!
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
”Dixie Highway”- Alan Jackson and Zac Brown Band
”Feel Like a Rock Star” – Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw
”Roll Me Up and Smoke Me When I Die” – Willie Nelson featuring Snoop Dogg, Kris Kristofferson and Jamey Johnson – Dan, Jonathan, Tara
”Safe and Sound” – Taylor Swift featuring the Civil Wars – Ben, Kevin, Leeann
”Stuck on You” – Lionel Richie and Darius Rucker
Will Win:
”Dixie Highway”- Alan Jackson and Zac Brown Band
”Feel Like a Rock Star” – Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw – Ben, Jonathan, Leeann
”Roll Me Up and Smoke Me When I Die” – Willie Nelson featuring Snoop Dogg, Kris Kristofferson and Jamey Johnson
”Safe and Sound” – Taylor Swift featuring the Civil Wars – Dan, Kevin, Tara
”Stuck on You” – Lionel Richie and Darius Rucker
Dan: “Roll Me Up” is a little hoot. But “Safe and Sound” had a higher profile, and it gives CMA a chance to be like, “See? We do appreciate the Civil Wars!”
Tara: Every song but “Roll Me Up” feels like it’s lacking something (in Chesney/McGraw’s case, taste), but I think “Safe and Sound” will have enough commercial clout to nab this one.
Ben: While I’m always happy to see some Alan Jackson love, “Dixie Highway” just doesn’t match the simple charm of Jackson and ZBB’s previous collaboration. “Safe and Sound” is just such a cool, haunting record – one that brings out the best in both of the acts involved. But since “Feel Like a Rock Star” has the biggest names attached, I think it’s an easy call that it’s going to win.
Jonathan:“Safe and Sound” is my favorite track here, but not necessarily because it’s a great collaboration. “Roll Me Up,” on the other hand, is a fun standalone cut that feels like a real event, and I appreciate the self-awareness with which the artists toy with their public personas. But it’s hard to imagine more conservative voters being on-board with the phrase, “CMA award winner Snoop Dogg.” The Chesney and McGraw duet quite rightfully bricked at radio, but it’s still the most likely winner here on star power alone.
Kevin: “Safe and Sound” succeeded in pushing the most mainstream of artists into an alternative country sound without sacrificing the identity of the duo that helped her get there. Plus it actually worked as a theme song to a movie that didn’t exactly lend itself to easy theming.
Leeann: I’d be fine with any of these except for the one that will probably win.
Music Video of the Year
Should Win:
Eric Church, “Springsteen” – Dan, Ben, Tara, Kevin
Kenny Chesney, “Come Over”
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Will Win:
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Kenny Chesney, “Come Over”
Miranda Lambert, “Over You” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Dan: The “Springsteen” video is pretty neato. Oh well.
Tara: The video for “Springsteen” is haunting. I dig it.
Jonathan: The Twilight-hued video for “Over You” is every bit as narrativeless, cloying, and shallow as the song itself, so I’m just going to pretend this is a retroactive win for “Kerosene.”
Kevin: (…Goes to YouTube to watch videos for first time…) Lambert, you had me until the horse. I’m going with Church, mostly because it reminds me of my own childhood and also Poltergeist for some reason.
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
Sam Bush – Jonathan, Kevin
Paul Franklin – Ben, Leeann
Dann Huff
Brent Mason
Mac McAnally
Will Win:
Sam Bush
Paul Franklin
Dann Huff – Jonathan, Kevin
Brent Mason
Mac McAnally – Ben, Leeann
Ben: It’s Paul Franklin’s turn… and it has been for years now.
Jonathan: It’s not as cool as Chris Thile’s winning a MacArthur Fellowship, but Sam Bush’s nomination for his extraordinary mandolin work is my favorite thing on the entire CMA ballot this year.
Kevin: I can’t vote against the mandolin. I just can’t.
The list of nominees for the 46th annual Country Music Association Awards has been released. Eric Church had a big breakthrough this past year, and such is reflected in the nominee list – Church leads the pack with five nominations. Power couple Blake Shelton and Miranda Lambert follow with four each, including a shared Song of the Year nod for their co-write “Over You.”
What’s your take on this year’s field of CMA nominees? Whose nominations were deserved, and whose were not? Who got snubbed? Share your thoughts in the comments section.
The live presentation airs Thursday, November 1 at 8pm Eastern on ABC-TV. The Country Universe Staff Picks & Predictions will be released the week of the show. Feel free to join us on show night for some live-blogging fun!
Entertainer of the Year
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift
Who’s in: Kenny Chesney
Who’s out: Keith Urban
No real surprises here. This year we swapped out Urban for Chesney, but all of these nominees have been here at least once before.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Kelly Clarkson
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Who’s in: Kelly Clarkson
Who’s out: Sara Evans
Well, I was hoping for some new blood in this category, and that’s definitely what I got. Pop crossover star Kelly Clarkson scores her first nomination in the Female Vocalist field, displacing Sara Evans. There will likely be some amount of upset over Clarkson receiving such an accolade, as she had one #21-peaking country hit in the past year with “Mr. Know It All,” but has yet to release a full-length country album. And…that makes her one of the top five leading female vocalists in the country format? Okay…
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean
Luke Bryan
Eric Church
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban
Who’s in: Luke Bryan, Eric Church
Who’s out: Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley
Bryan and Church’s recent career strides are rewarded with their first nominations in the always-competitive Male Vocalist race.
Vocal Group of the Year
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Zac Brown Band
Who’s in: Eli Young Band
Who’s out: Rascal Flatts (!!!)
Eli Young Band scores a pair of huge radio hits, and thus squeezes out a former staple of the Vocal Group race.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Big & Rich
Love and Theft
Sugarland
The Civil Wars
Thompson Square
Who’s in: Big & Rich, Love and Theft
Who’s out: Montgomery Gentry, Steel Magnolia
New Artist of the Year
Lee Brice
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes
Love and Theft
Thompson Square
Who’s in: Lee Brice, Brantley Gilbert, Hunter Hayes, Love and Theft
Who’s out: The Band Perry (won), Luke Bryan, Eric Church, Chris Young (So, everyone except Thompson Square)
Album of the Year (Awarded to artist and producer)
Luke Bryan, Tailgates and Tanlines Produced by Jeff Stevens and Mark Bright
Eric Church, Chief Produced by Jay Joyce
Miranda Lambert, Four the Record Produced by Frank Liddell, Chuck Ainlay, and Glenn Worf
Dierks Bentley, Home Produced by Brett Beavers, Luke Wooten, and Jon Randall Stewart
Lady Antebellum, Own the Night Produced by Paul Worley and Lady Antebellum
Song of the Year (Awarded to songwriters)
Eli Young Band, “Even if It Breaks Your Heart”
Written by Will Hoge and Eric Paslay
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Written by Dave Barnes
Dierks Bentley, “Home”
Written by Dierks Bentley, Dan Wilson and Brett Beavers
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Written by Miranda Lambert and Blake Shelton
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Written by Eric Church, Jeff Hyde and Ryan Tyndell
Single of the Year (Awarded to artist and producer)
Jason Aldean, “Dirt Road Anthem”
Produced by Michael Knox
Blake Shelton, “God Gave Me You”
Produced by Scott Hendricks
Dierks Bentley, “Home”
Produced by Brett Beavers and Luke Wooten
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Produced by Jay Joyce
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Produced by Jay Joyce
Musical Event of the Year
Alan Jackson and Zac Brown Band, ”Dixie Highway”
Kenny Chesney and Tim McGraw, ”Feel Like a Rock Star”
Willie Nelson featuring Snoop Dogg, Kris Kristofferson and Jamey Johnson, ”Roll Me Up and Smoke Me When I Die”
Taylor Swift featuring the Civil Wars, ”Safe and Sound”
Lionel Richie and Darius Rucker, ”Stuck on You”
Music Video of the Year (Awarded to artist and director)
Eric Church, “Springsteen”
Directed by Peter Zavadil
Kenny Chesney, “Come Over”
Directed by Shaun Silva
Miranda Lambert, “Over You”
Directed by Trey Fanjoy
Little Big Town, “Pontoon”
Directed by Declan Whitebloom
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Directed by Michael Salomon
Musician of the Year
Sam Bush
Paul Franklin
Dann Huff
Brent Mason
Mac McAnally
Throw on your bedazzled boots – the 47th annual Academy of Country Music Awards air live from Las Vegas this Sunday at 8 p.m. EST. The show promises to be a melting pot of performances, with oddball duets like Rascal Flatts and Steve Martin - and no, that’s not an April Fools joke. The CU staff picked and predicted the awards below. Tell us your thoughts, and check back for our live blog on Sunday night!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Dan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Ben, Sam
Will Win:
Jason Aldean – Sam
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Dan, Tara, Kevin, Ben
Ben: Okay, so I was going to go with Aldean based on his massive success… but Swift’s music has just been too dang good lately.
Jonathan: Swift is the only one of the five who has released any music I really liked during the eligibility period; that fan voting is part of whatever mysterious algorithm is used to determine the winner of this award helps her case. I recognize that Aldean has a good look at this, too, but I’ll admit to just digging my heels in and refusing to get on board with the idea that he’s considered the standard-bearing artist in country music.
Tara: Swift released some of the best material of her career in the eligibility period, and her star seems as bright as it’s ever been. And while I can’t picture her losing something fan-voted, I wouldn’t be shocked if Aldean snuck up on her, especially given the secret fan / academy vote ratio. I just hope that this time next year, there are a few shake-ups in this category. I’m bored.
Dan: I like Swift the best, but can’t muster the energy to root actively against Aldean like I did with, say, Rascal Flatts.
Kevin: Aldean vs. Swift, with me erring on the side of the one who made more music that I liked this year.
Sam: Just a hunch, but the Taylor Swift voters might be as fanatical as usual because Carrie Underwood isn’t nominated for this award. That might give Aldean the chance to sneak in.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Kevin, Sam
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Chris Young – Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Will Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Sam
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton – Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Chris Young
Dan: Aldean remains the hottest guy out there by a huge margin, and occasionally puts out something decent like “Fly Over States.” I’ll just keep picking him to win this until he does. La la la.
Ben: Aldean’s success speaks for itself, but I would really like to see Chris Young take this. He released a solid new album, remained a consistent hitmaker at radio, and has made the most music that I’ve actually cared about. But seeing as the industry award voters have been showing a lot of excessive Shelton love as of late, my gut says that Blake Shelton is going to get this. (There are no awards for TV Judge of the Year or Newlywed of the Year, so the ACM will probably give him this one instead)
Jonathan: So let’s talk about Chris Young for a minute. The guy has a fantastic voice, one of the strongest and most distinctive instruments to come down Music Row in a minute, and that alone is enough to elevate him above most of the other men who have scored major airplay in the past couple of years. But the discrepancy between the quality of Young’s vocal performances and the quality of the songs he’s performing is a problem, and here’s yet another instance of an artist with the potential to be really and truly great receiving a thumbs-up from the industry for work that’s just occasionally on the better side of okay. Where’s the incentive for someone like Young to be even better if he’s being recognized now? And what does it say that, despite his wildly uneven material, he’s far and away the class of this particular field of nominees?
Tara: I have to disagree with Jonathan on this one; I find Neon to be a refreshing, neo-traditional gem, more organic than it is uneven. In this stage of Young’s career, I view his body of work as a stepping stone and an indication of potential, and I have no issue with it being rewarded. But it won’t be; Mr. Lambert’s got the entertainment industry on lockdown. And I can’t say I really mind.
Kevin: Picking Aldean as the “should win” solely because he had the biggest year, though I suspect Shelton will win anyway.
Sam: I get the love for Miranda Lambert, but the Blake Shelton love is largely lost on me. Not a fan of Aldean either, but he’s due for this award.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Sara Evans
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Ben, Tara, Leeann, Sam
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift – Jonathan, Kevin
Carrie Underwood
Will Win:
Sara Evans
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Sam
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift – Kevin
Carrie Underwood
Dan: I think Swift has been the strongest solo act this past year, but Lambert released a decent fourth album and a terrific group one. With no place on the ballot to reward Pistol Annies (fix that, CMAs?), this’ll do.
Ben: Swift put out a string of very good singles, but… Four the Record + Pistol Annies = The Miranda Lambert love will be fully justified.
Jonathan: If we’re counting Pistol Annies, then I can absolutely see the case for Lambert and could be convinced to vote accordingly, and I think she still has the momentum to win here. If we’re just looking at solo material, though, I’m unapologetically sticking with Swift’s “Mean” and “Sparks Fly,” which trump anything that the other four women in the category released during the eligibility period. With Underwood having a new album to support and, hopefully, Kellie Pickler getting the recognition she deserves for her latest work, this category should be a hell of a lot more interesting and competitive come CMA time.
Tara: Swift delivered the better material, but Lambert delivered the better performances, Hell On Heels notwithstanding. By my definition of FVOTY, this should go to Lambert. (And I’m stoked for the fall award season, too.)
Leeann: I have no real reason to believe that the Academy would take this from Lambert this year.
Kevin: Can you believe that Swift is the only nominee who hasn’t won this yet? I know Lambert should be the favorite, especially given the ACM’s fondness for her. But I can’t shake the feeling that she’s lost some momentum with her latest project.
Sam: Miranda will continue to own this category until someone like Carrie Underwood steps up with a new album.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win
Love and Theft
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland – Leeann
Thompson Square – Dan, Ben, Tara
Will Win:
Love and Theft
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Kevin
Thompson Square – Jonathan, Tara, Sam
Ben: The Civil Wars are really the only duo I’ve cared about this past year, but they have been stupidly excluded in favor of Love and Theft (who only released one mediocre single in the past year), so I’m going with Thompson Square instead. They’ve been doing well at radio, and their music has not been terribly grating, but I’m pretty sure that the ACM will remain stuck on Sugarland.
Dan: With The Civil Wars absent from ACM’s roster and Sugarland having a messy year across the board, Thompson Square seems like the last band standing. And they’re cute, right?
Jonathan: The song remains the same: This category should’ve been merged with Vocal Group of the Year eons ago to trim the fat. Given that the ACMs are still ostensibly more radio-oriented than the CMAs and that Sugarland have actively alienated radio with the god-awful singles from their god-awful album, I’m going to say that Thompson Square pull off the upset here. Just don’t ask me to hum or even to name more than one of their songs…
Tara: I honestly can’t muster an opinion. What’s Sugarland been up to these days, anyway?
Leeann: This category isn’t even worth comment this year.
Kevin: Saying somebody should win implies that I think there’s a worthy winner, so I’m just going to say that Sugarland will win.
Sam: No Bellamy Brothers nod? You mean country music actually had five legit nominees for a Duo award this year? Artistically, The Civil Wars and Foster & Lloyd would be the most deserving this year.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Will Win:
The Band Perry – Sam
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band
Ben: I’ve tried to hold out hope that the award industries would lay off the ridiculous Lady A adoration, but the CMAs and Grammys have shown me otherwise.
Jonathan: No reason to think the ACMs will break the trend of giving unearned trophies to the C students in the class.
Tara: I remain firmly in ZBB’s corner; the band produced my favorite single of 2011. But I would much, much prefer this award to go to the flavor of the month Eli Young Band than the flavor of the year Lady Antebellum.
Dan: I miss Little Big Town, but this is the first time in recent memory that this category has had five competitive groups. Like Aldean in the Male Vocalist race, Zac Brown Band sell as well as anyone and haven’t won yet, so I’ll probably keep picking them until they do, too. La la la x2.
Leeann: I’d love to see Zac Brown Band take it this year, but I don’t have enough faith that Lady A won’t just keep the award.
Kevin: Always gonna root for ZBB. Just losing hope that they’ll ever actually win.
Sam: ZBB is operating on a higher level than any other vocal group, but I’m alright with The Band Perry’s quirkiness getting some recognition.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes – Dan, Tara
Scotty McCreery
Will Win:
Brantley Gilbert
Hunter Hayes
Scotty McCreery – Ben, Dan, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Dan: Of the three, I think Hayes has the most raw talent (played every instrument on his album!) and could one day be an interesting artist. So, vote of optimism! ;D
Ben: I think this will be between Gilbert and McCreery. My gut says Scotty McCreery “will” win, but this line-up is just too depressing for me to make a case for who “should” win. Dan makes a good point about Hunter Hayes though…
Jonathan: I can’t.
Tara: Uh…I guess this is as good a time as any to confess my love for “Storm Warning.”
Leeann: I don’t even have the heart to choose who I think should win, but I’m guessing the “American Idol” winner will win.
Kevin: New Coke >>>> New Artist of the Year.
Sam: This is fan voted, right? Well, if McCreery’s fans can vote him to win “American Idol”…
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Eric Church, Chief – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin
Miranda Lambert, Four The Record – Sam
Kenny Chesney, Hemingway’s Whiskey
Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party
Lady Antebellum, Own The Night
Will Win:
Eric Church, Chief
Miranda Lambert, Four The Record
Kenny Chesney, Hemingway’s Whiskey
Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party – Dan, Ben, Sam
Lady Antebellum, Own The Night – Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin
Ben: Eric Church edges out Miranda as my pick, but I’m fairly sure this will go to Aldean, and I refuse to predict that Lady Antebellum will win this.
Jonathan: I liked Lambert’s album exponentially less each time I listened to it, so I stopped listening to all but two of its tracks (“Fine Tune” and “Dear Diamond”) months ago to preserve at least some degree of fondness for it. Church’s album has some significant limitations of its own, but, song-for-song, it’s the strongest set in this line-up. I have no idea what I would ever actually say to a person who believes that Richard Marx’s Repeat Offender Amy Grant’s House of Love Lady Antebellum’s Own the Night scans as a country album in any substantive way, or that it’s the best country album of this or any year. But clearly there are people who do believe that, and recent history says there are enough of them for Lady A to win this.
Tara: It’s a toss up between Lambert and Church for me, with Church’s realized hard-assness giving Chief a slight edge. But it’s Lady A’s to lose – and I’m not sure anything in the industry has frustrated me more than their wins as of late. It’s worse than laughably unfair; it’s potential-threatening. And it has to stop.
Dan: When Church is bad, he’s cringe-worthy. When he’s good, he kicks most of the ass he told you he’d kick.
Leeann: I won’t be surprised if Lady A wins, but I’d love to see Eric Church win for the most interesting album of the bunch. I wouldn’t mind seeing Miranda Lambert win either.
Kevin: I just hope I’m wrong a lot this year.
Sam: Pretty sad when a “good for a Jason Aldean album” album beats out two superior albums from Church and Lambert, but I think that will be the case.
Single Record of the Year
Should Win:
Eli Young Band, “Crazy Girl”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay”
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Chris Young, “Tomorrow”
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila” – Ben, Dan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Will Win:
Eli Young Band, “Crazy Girl”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Chris Young, “Tomorrow”
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Ben: “Tequila” outclasses most of the field, though “Tomorrow” is also a solid contender. I get the novelty value of “Red Solo Cup,” but Single Record of the Year? Nah…
Jonathan: Even for a novelty song, I thought “Red Solo Cup” was poorly constructed and lazily written, but I kind of hope it wins, if only to prove that this year’s ACMs are just a straight-up farce.
Tara: I don’t love any of these, but “You and Tequila” is the only one I can imagine holding up in ten years.
Dan: Whatever.
Leeann: I can’t even believe “Red Solo Cup” is a contender! I’d love to see Kenny win for one of his best recordings, though I suspect Jason Aldean and Kelly Clarkson will win due to their cross genre appeal and all.
Kevin: Please let me be wrong a lot this year.
Sam: I will be rooting for “Red Solo Cup” and its inspired idiocy, but this could be part of Jason Aldean’s big night at the ACM.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
“Crazy Girl” – Lee Brice & Liz Rose
“Home” – Brett Beavers, Dierks Bentley & Dan Wilson – Leeann
“Just a Kiss” – Dallas Davidson, Dave Haywood, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
“Threaten Me With Heaven” – Amy Grant, Vince Gill, Dillon O’Brian & Will Owsley – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
“You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter – Dan, Ben, Sam
Will Win:
“Crazy Girl” – Lee Brice & Liz Rose
“Home” – Brett Beavers, Dierks Bentley & Dan Wilson – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Sam
“Just a Kiss” – Dallas Davidson, Dave Haywood, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott – Kevin
“Threaten Me With Heaven” – Amy Grant, Vince Gill, Dillon O’Brian & Will Owsley
“You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter – Leeann
Dan: “Home” has felt like awards bait to me since I first heard it. Me, I’m a “Tequila” guy.
Ben: Ditto to Dan.
Jonathan: As much as I’d like to see Berg and Carter pick up some new hardware, I’d still give the edge to Gill’s song. When “Home” does win, which I agree it will, I’ll just pretend it means that Jason Isbell has finally won a major industry award.
Tara: “Threaten Me With Heaven” is gorgeously written, but I won’t mind if (and when) “Home” takes the award. Country music could use a shot of graceful patriotism.
Leeann: I’m pleased to have three songs that I’d be happy to see win the award this year. I feel like either Chesney or Bentley will rightfully win…I hope so at least.
Kevin: Pretty please?
Video of the Year
Should Win:
Eric Church, “Homeboy”
Lady Antebellum, “Just a Kiss”
Taylor Swift, “Mean” – Ben, Dan, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin, Sam
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup”
Jason Aldean, “Tattoos On This Town”
Will Win:
Eric Church, “Homeboy”
Lady Antebellum, “Just a Kiss”
Taylor Swift, “Mean” – Kevin
Toby Keith, “Red Solo Cup” – Ben, Dan, Jonathan, Tara, Sam
Jason Aldean, “Tattoos On This Town”
Ben: I could actually live with “Red Solo Cup” winning this, but I still enjoy “Mean” quite a bit more. Plus I kind of hate Lady Antebellum’s video for being nothing more than a glorified iPad commercial. I also think “Mean” deserved a nomination for Single Record of the Year, so I would like to see it acknowledged here. Still, I don’t think I can bet against “Red Solo Cup.”
Jonathan: That “Mean” didn’t score the Single and Song of the Year nominations with the ACMs that it has elsewhere seems revealing, with “Red Solo Cup” as the most likely beneficiary. I just hope that the faux gravitas of the “Homeboy” clip doesn’t give it any footing.
Tara: I’m equally disappointed that “Mean” didn’t snag a nomination for Single or Song of the Year. With the video almost as freshly produced as the single, it’s an easy one to root for in this category. I have no inkling as to who will win, but I’ll piggyback off of my co-bloggers on the frat party anthem.
Dan: I could do without how the “Mean” clip ends with a little girl idolizing Taylor Swift, but am I gonna vote against the country music video that had the anti-gay-bullying message? No, I’m not.
Kevin: I think the Swift clip has enough pizazz to triumph in the end over Toby’s YouTube video.
Vocal Event of the Year
Should Win:
Aaron Lewis featuring George Jones & Charlie Daniels, “Country Boy”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay”
Brad Paisley featuring Alabama, “Old Alabama”
Brad Paisley duet with Carrie Underwood, “Remind Me” – Tara, Kevin, Ben
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila” – Dan, Jonathan, Leeann, Sam
Will Win:
Aaron Lewis featuring George Jones & Charlie Daniels, “Country Boy”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay” – Jonathan, Dan, Leeann, Kevin, Sam
Brad Paisley featuring Alabama, “Old Alabama”
Brad Paisley duet with Carrie Underwood, “Remind Me” – Tara, Ben
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Jonathan: The Lewis track is one of the worst singles of the past five years or more, and its nomination is an indication of how deeply modern country music hates the actual traditions and values of the genre.
Tara: As middle-of-the-road as it is, something in the melody of “Remind Me” intrigues me. And I have a random feeling the voters will use this category to reward their dethroned male and female vocalists of the year.
Dan: It’ll be interesting to see if “Remind Me” can unseat “Don’t You Wanna St– oh, who am I kidding. Nothing is interesting anymore.
Leeann: Ugh. I pretty much know that Jason Aldean and Kelly Clarkson will win, but I’d love to be wrong. Meanwhile, I continue to faithfully root for the Chesney/Potter collaboration.
Kevin: I like my Vocal Events to be full-out Vocal Events, so I’m going for Paisley/Underwood over Chesney with backing vocals from Potter. The latter pair made the better record, though.
Ben: I’m with Tara and Kevin. “You and Tequila” is the best record overall, but that has more to do with Berg and Carter’s songwriting than with Potter’s contributions. “Remind Me” is the one that feels like an actual event.
Sam: Aldean & Clarkson outscreamed Paisley & Underwood, so they lay claim to the trophy. Chesney and Potter, what were you two thinking by just going out there and singing? Next time, I want to hear some wailing and primal screams, because that’s what makes for a successful duet these days.
When they’re not focusing on steampunk imagery and incorporating reggae interludes into their songs, Sugarland can make some quite nice music, as evidenced by this track from its Gold and Green album. Jennifer Nettles’ and Kristian Bush’s voices blend well together, particularly on a folky, banjo-driven track like this one.
Leeann’s Pick: John Berry
John Berry’s powerhouse voice singing this powerful song is pure Christmas perfection. In fact, I never even appreciated this song until I heard Berry’s version. Now, thanks to this version, not only do I appreciate many versions, it’s turned into one of two favorite Christmas songs of mine.
It’s that time of year again! The time when we all dutifully tune in to the CMA Awards show, raise our eyebrows at the “What the heck are they doing here?” award presenters, and afterwards complain about how totally un-country the whole show was. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I can’t wait.
We’re pleased to share the Country Universe staff picks for this year’s CMA Awards, as well as our predictions of who the winners will be. This year we have some highly competitive categories in which predicting the winners is quite difficult, leading to some significantly divergent picks among our writing staff. Agree? Disagree? Join in the discussion in the comment thread below, and let us know.
The CMA Awards telecast will air on Wednesday, November 9, 8pm Eastern on ABC-TV. We will be live blogging the show here at Country Universe, so do be sure to drop by and join in the fun!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean – Kevin
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift - Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Tara
Keith Urban
Will Win:
Jason Aldean
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton - Dan, Leeann, Jonathan
Taylor Swift – Ben, Kevin, Tara
Keith Urban
Dan: I can imagine anyone but Urban taking it, but I like Jonathan’s logic.
Ben: It’s hard to bet on the Entertainer award going to a female artist, but it seems Swift has undoubtedly had the biggest year of all the nominees. Her album sold like hotcakes, and produced a trio of killer radio singles, while she topped that off with her Speak Now tour. That combination should bag her this year’s top prize.
Leeann: Paisley could take it again, but my money’s on the CMA wanting to give it to fresh blood this year. Taylor Swift is who probably actually deserves it, however.
Jonathan: Paisley is probably the most logical pick, but he didn’t figure as heavily into the nominations this year as he could have, so I’m wondering if the voters have cooled on him as much as the crew here at CU have of late. Swift’s live show should be a factor in this category, but she has a whole lot of gender bias to overcome, and there seems to be at least something of a backlash against her in the country community post-Fearless. Which leaves the ubiquitous Shelton, who has been something of a new “Everywhere Man” for the genre over the past year.
Kevin: I think Swift will win because she had the highest profile year. But I think Aldean defines the genre in 2011, for better or for worse. Mostly worse.
Tara: As I’ve said before, this is the most appropriate way for the voters to reward Swift’s monster success, and for the first time at the CMAs, I truly feel she deserves this award. I’m particularly impressed with the way she continues to cultivate her relationship with her fans. I just hope the voters don’t pair this award with the FVOTY award.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Jason Aldean - Dan, Ben
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Keith Urban - Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Will Win:
Jason Aldean – Dan, Ben
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton - Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Keith Urban
Dan: Aldean’s not my thing, but he’s the biggest guy in the field by an unignorable margin. More than anything, I think the indie Broken Bow Records deserves props for building their flagship artist so well.
Ben: I’m largely indifferent to this particular field of nominees (save possibly Keith Urban), but Aldean’s massive success should most likely nab him his first Male Vocalist trophy.
Leeann: Again, I think it’s Shelton’s night to sweep in order to shake things up this year. He and Urban have the strongest voices in the category anyway.
Jonathan: Urban’s the only one of the lot who has released even one single I’ve liked in the past year, so he’d get my vote. Aldean has the commercial clout, sure, but quality has to count for something, right? Voters have looked at the word “Vocalist” in the category name and have passed over Chesney for years, and I wonder if they’ll do the same to Aldean here. I’m thinking yes.
Kevin: Urban’s the one who I can stand to listen to. But if Shelton was able to win last year, I don’t see how he loses this year. Not post-Voice and “Honey Bee.”
Tara: It makes me sad that I can’t find a solid reason to support Urban or Paisley, both of whom I used to feel passionately about. And in all honesty, I can’t find a solid reason to support any of these guys, based on their output during the eligibility period. I’m going to blindly back Urban –who, despite being “Urban-lite” these days, is at least consistent– and predict that Shelton’s amped public profile will give him the edge with voters.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
Sara Evans – Kevin
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan
Carrie Underwood – Tara
Will Win:
Sara Evans
Miranda Lambert – Dan, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift - Ben
Carrie Underwood
Dan: Come ACM season, I’ll be all for Lambert; Pistol Annies and Four The Record prove she’s using her new commercial powers nobly. But I like Swift’s performances on Speak Now, and that album just applies more to this awards cycle.
Ben: Swift is the overall strongest contender, but I could see voters seizing the opportunity to recognize Evans, who released a new album and had a number one single during the eligibility period. I wouldn’t rule Lambert out either, though she didn’t have as strong a year as she did in 2010. But I doubt this will be Underwood’s year, and McBride’s was essentially a filler nomination, so I’d say it’s down to Swift, Evans, and Lambert. (But, like Dan, I will totally be Team Miranda when the ACMs roll around)
Leeann: I reflexively say Lambert should win, but Swift has had the best year and will likely win as a result. I won’t be heart broken if Lambert takes it though.
Jonathan: There’s a part of me that would vote for Lambert on principle and out of loyalty, but I can’t argue with a simple mathematical inequality: “Back to December,” “Mean,” and “Sparks Fly” > “Only Prettier,” “Heart Like Mine” and “Baggage Claim.” Had her label been campaigning harder that she’s never won this award, Evans could’ve been a bigger threat here, but Lambert’s ongoing momentum should carry her to a repeat win.
Kevin: Can this power couple nonsense be derailed? Probably not, so while I’d rather see Swift get it over Lambert, I’m doubtful it would happen. My real fantasy would be for the only non-winner, Sara Evans, to take it. For prosperity’s sake, and for actually putting out a great single that I failed to realize was great until it was already a hit.
Tara: This is a tough one for me. Lambert’s worked the genre like no other female has this past year and a half, but the singles she’s released in the eligibility period have been so-so. Swift’s put out some solid material, but I’m not sure I’ll ever be able to support her winning a vocalist award. And then there’s Underwood, who’s been relatively quiet on the radio front, but whose stunning performance of “How Great Thou Art” back in April went viral and serves as a reminder of what I firmly believe is one of the finest voices in the genre. I’m going with my gut and backing Underwood, but I think the voters will reward Lambert again, which is fine with me.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
The Civil Wars – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland
Thompson Square
Will Win:
The Civil Wars
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland - Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Thompson Square
Dan: Seriously, why not the Civil Wars? They’ve sold about as many albums (200,000-ish) as everyone besides Sugarland without the support of a major label. Not to mention they just made the most interesting music.
Ben: I’m supporting the Civil Wars on principle, but it’s a no-brainer that Sugarland’s hot streak is not over yet.
Leeann: I love The Civil Wars. The end.
Jonathan: Yet more evidence that this category should be merged with Vocal Group of the Year to cut the deadweight. Though the Civil Wars getting in instead of the JaneDear Girls is a nice testament to the fact that the CMAs, every so often, can exercise good taste and discretion.
Kevin: Sugarland’s album was atrocious. The Civil Wars are in the running for my favorite set of the year. Easy call for me.
Tara: Can Sugarland hurry up and release a new, redeeming album, please?
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Will Win:
The Band Perry
Lady Antebellum – Tara
Little Big Town
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band - Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin
Dan: Lady A were between albums. Some variety this year, please.
Ben: It’ hard to bet against Lady Antebellum, but the Zac Brown band gave us a strong album and two of the year’s most memorable hit singles (“As She’s Walking Away” and “Colder Weather”), and I predict that they will be rewarded justly.
Leeann: Zac Brown Band has a good chance with the best music in the category, but Lady A just might not be out yet.
Jonathan: Little Big Town’s brilliant “Little White Church” should’ve put them back in the mix for good, but they really botched the single releases from their album and are right back to being also-rans. The Band Perry will settle for the “New Artist” award as a consolation prize this year, which leaves Lady A and Zac Brown Band to duke it out. In terms of the quality of their output, Zac Brown Band has Lady A dead to rights, but is that enough to stop the trio’s awards-show juggernaut? Let’s hope so.
Kevin: Zac Brown Band is the only option both realistic and palatable.
Tara: This is the first of these categories that I feel strongly about this year. Based on the strength of You Get What You Give, Zac Brown Band deserves to nab this award, hands down. But I’ll go against my co-bloggers here and guess that Lady Antebellum still has the industry wrapped around its finger.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
The Band Perry - Ben
Luke Bryan
Eric Church - Leeann, Jonathan
Thompson Square
Chris Young – Dan, Kevin, Tara
Will Win:
The Band Perry – Ben, Jonathan, Tara
Luke Bryan
Eric Church – Dan, Leeann, Kevin
Thompson Square
Chris Young
Dan: Church seems the most likely to have a long, interesting career and probably deserves the win. I just don’t want to encourage “Homeboy,” I guess.
Ben: Thompson Square and The Band Perry are the only two nominees whom I would still consider “new” artists, and I think The Band Perry beats Thompson Square any day. Bryan, however, did reach a new level of stardom over the past year, so he stands a good chance at wining nonetheless.
Leeann: While it’s strange that with three albums Church is still in the New Artist category, it’s probably that same reason that he should win the award, not to mention that he had the strongest album of the nominees in the past year.
Jonathan: Young’s the best singer in the field, but his material is still too inconsistent in quality for me to get on board with him. Church, on the other hand, finally made good on his early promise and his considerable hype with Chief and would be a deserving winner, as would the uneven but still pretty good The Band Perry. As the only nominee with any other nominations, they have to be considered the slight favorites over Crest WhiteStrips.
Kevin: I think Church’s big breakthrough happened close enough to the voting window to give him a slight edge. I’d like to see Chris Young get the boost from a win.
Tara: Of all the nominees, I’m the most excited for Chris Young’s future in country music – his vocal talent is tremendous, and even though it falls right outside of the eligibility period, Neon is one of my favorite releases of this year. Based on their other major nominations, though, I think The Band Perry will take this.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
Blake Shelton, All About Tonight
Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party
Taylor Swift, Speak Now- Ben, Kevin
Brad Paisley, This Is Country Music
Zac Brown Band, You Get What You Give- Dan, Leeann, Jonathan, Tara
Will Win:
Blake Shelton, All About Tonight
Jason Aldean, My Kinda Party – Dan, Leeann, Jonathan, Tara
Taylor Swift, Speak Now – Ben, Kevin
Brad Paisley, This Is Country Music
Zac Brown Band, You Get What You Give
Dan: Here’s a logical place to acknowledge Aldean, though I hope voters think twice about it.
Ben: In my book, Swift and the Zac Brown Band are the only truly worthy winners (and I’m still scratching my head over why a Blake Shelton “Six Pak” was even nominated in the first place). To me, the most intriguing thing about Swift is that she really does seem to get a little better and a little deeper with each album. Speak Now is her crowning achievement to date, and in my opinion, the best album on this ballot.
Leeann: It hurts my heart to think it, but Jason Aldean’s big year will likely earn him the award for best album, even though numbers isn’t how such an award should be selected.
Jonathan: Speak Now is Swift’s strongest album, but, “Mean” notwithstanding, it’s also her most unabashedly pop album. And song-for-song, I still think You Get What You Give is slightly better. But Aldean has been a steady seller, and he’s big enough that he has to win one of the major awards, and this one’s his best bet.
Kevin: “All songs composed by Taylor Swift” impressed the heck out of me, not the least of which because the songs were far better than her earlier work. Zac Brown Band’s a close second for me.
Tara: Speak Now is solid, but You Get What You Give is the better example of how to move this genre forward, with its delicious yet reverent mishmash of influences. But I think this is where the voters will recognize the often overlooked commercial success of Jason Aldean.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
Sara Evans, “A Little Bit Stronger”
Zac Brown Band, “Colder Weather”- Leeann, Tara
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay”
Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee”
The Band Perry, “If I Die Young” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
Will Win:
Sara Evans, “A Little Bit Stronger”
Zac Brown Band, “Colder Weather”
Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson, “Don’t You Wanna Stay” - Jonathan, Tara
Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee” - Kevin
The Band Perry, “If I Die Young” - Dan, Ben, Leeann
Dan: It’d be heartening to see The Band Perry’s risky, rootsy release get its due. Plus: the single alone is 3x Platinum, better than any of its competitors can claim.
Ben: “Colder Weather” and “If I Die Young” are the two strongest competitors, but for me, a cool folksy arrangement puts the latter over the edge.
Leeann: This is tough. I can actually see any of these singles winning, but I have a good feeling about “If I Die Young”, though I’d love to see “Colder Weather” prove me wrong.
Jonathan: This one’s actually a tough call, since all five of the singles are big radio hits and everyone here has multiple nominations. “If I Die Young” is the best-produced single of the lot, but I’m predicting that Kelly Clarkson’s endless likability gives the edge to her duet with Aldean.
Kevin: Love the Band Perry record most, followed by Sara Evans. But this is the CMA awards, and Shelton managed to be both completely vanilla and namedrop Conway Twitty and Loretta Lynn.
Tara: If I better understood the story in “If I Die Young,” I might be able to get behind it, but I think “Colder Weather” is the more memorable single. It’s my favorite kind of country ballad – killer vocals, gripping melody and palpable emotion. I see the fiery Aldean / Clarkson collaboration taking this one, though. (By the way, dude, “Honey Bee” – really CMA?)
“If I Die Young” – Kimberly Perry - Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
“Mean” – Taylor Swift - Kevin
“You and Tequila” – Matraca Berg & Deana Carter – Leann
Dan: “If I Die Young” is a flawed composition, but it’s still the most striking and strange one here, and that’s worth something.
Ben: I never though I’d see a CMA Song of the Year field in which Matraca Berg and Deana Carter would compete against Colt Ford and Brantley Gilbert. I would so love to see Berg and Carter win the award. I might tend to be slightly biased when it comes to Matraca Berg, but I think “Tequila” is a fine composition on its own merits, and a worthy winner indeed. Still, my gut predicion is that Perry will grab the trophy instead.
Leeann: “Mean” is probably my favorite song in terms of production and melody, but “You and Tequila” is the best song of the nominees.
Jonathan: Berg is a treasure and I like Carter well enough, so it’s nice to see their names on the ballot again, but “You and Tequila” isn’t either of their best compositions. Here’s the thing about “Mean”: What doesn’t work about the song has everything to do with the fact that it shows the extent to which Swift still hasn’t fully figured out her artistic persona. But in terms of melody and overall construction as a stand-alone song? It’s the class of the field. As Dan said, “If I Die Young” is flawed, but it also has a lot going for it and will be a fine, worthy winner when it inevitably takes this.
Kevin: I love “You and Tequila”, but it’s an old song. I’m glad Chesney rediscovered it, but I can’t see it as this year’s Song of the Year. I think “Mean” is the best of the bunch, with the music as clever as the lyrics.
Tara: I’m with Jonathan and Leann re: “Mean” in that I agree its melody and overall construction are terrific; unfortunately its flaw –the bridge, which undermines the premise of the song– is too big for me to overlook. And as much as I love it, I don’t feel right backing “Colder Weather,” either, as it’s really Brown’s vocal performance that elevates the composition to a memorable song. So I’ll go with the quirky and unique “If I Die Young” and guess the voters will, too.
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
“As She’s Walking Away” – Zac Brown Band featuring Alan Jackson – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
“Don’t You Wanna Stay” – Jason Aldean with Kelly Clarkson – Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan
“Old Alabama” – Brad Paisley with Alabama
“You and Tequila” – Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter
Dan: The Single nod for Jason and Kelly suggests they have the edge here. But my heart echoes a resounding “Go on, son.”
Ben: “As She’s Walking Away” is just so effortlessly charming that it would easily be my first pick, but the cross-genre appeal – and bonus Clarkson star power – of “Don’t You Wanna Stay” make it the most likely winner. The fact that “Don’t You Wanna Stay” is also nominated for Single (which “As She’s Walking Away” sadly isn’t) suggests a likely victory in this category.
Leeann: How can I not pull for the Zac Brown Band and Alan Jackson when I have a chance? I’m pretty confident that the drama, cross genre appeal, and, yup, the drama again, make “Don’t You Want to Stay” the sure bet though.
Jonathan: “As She’s Walking Away” is one of the purest and truest duets in years, and it could pull some votes from the more traditionalist voters, but the Aldean and Clarkson single just has too much firepower to lose here.
Kevin: If this doesn’t go to Zac Brown Band and Alan Jackson, then I no longer understand how CMA voters think.
Tara: No question here, “As She’s Walking Away” is head and shoulders above the rest of the collaborations in this category, one of the most quietly charming singles we’ve heard on country radio in quite some time. I’ll go out on a limb and predict that voters will have trouble ignoring the warm fuzzies they get when Jackson starts singing.
Music Video of the Year
Should Win:
Blake Shelton, “Honey Bee”
The Band Perry, “If I Die Young” – Dan
Taylor Swift, “Mean” – Ben, Kevin, Tara
Brad Paisley featuring Alabama, “Old Alabama”
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Kenny Chesney featuring Grace Potter, “You and Tequila”
Dan: It’s my least favorite Paisley video ever, though.
Ben: Swift’s “Mean” is my personal favorite among these nominees, but I’m expecting that voters will show some Shelton love instead.
Jonathan: Paisley has to win something, right? And this also gives the voters a chance to honor some beloved genre vets.
Kevin: I think the video splicing tricks will give Paisley and Alabama an additional edge. Of the five clips, “Mean” is the one I like the most.
Tara: I love the whimsical video for “Mean” but think (and actually kind of hope) the voters will use this category to award the show co-host and his buddies.
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
Paul Franklin (steel guitar) - Dan, Ben, Leeann, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
Dann Huff (guitar)
Brent Mason (guitar)
Mac McAnally (guitar)
Randy Scruggs (guitar)
Will Win:
Paul Franklin (steel guitar) - Leeann, Jonathan
Dann Huff (guitar)
Brent Mason (guitar)
Mac McAnally (guitar) – Dan, Ben, Kevin, Tara
Randy Scruggs (guitar)
Dan: Default underdog support.
Ben: I would love to see this go to the steel guitar man (and preferably not to Dann Huff), but Mac McAnally tends to be the favorite here.
Leeann: I want the steel guitar to represent this year. So, I’ll will it to happen.
Jonathan: Franklin’s the only nominee who hasn’t won previously, and being regarded as long overdue eventually helped McAnally score his first win, leading to his current three-year hot streak.
Kevin: I’ll be rooting for Paul Franklin until he finally wins, but I won’t believe that he’ll win until he finally does.
It starts with a pure pop/rock intro that goes on a little too long, but provides for a pleasantly jarring transition into acoustic country. The first thirty seconds have that contrast which made Shania Twain’s The Woman in Me hits work so well.
But then it quickly disintegrates to generic Chesney: loud but not assertive, cute but not clever, upbeat but not uplifting.
It’s like listening to Bob Saget cover Sugarland’s “Something More.”
I became a country fan twenty years ago, and have been fully immersed in the genre for about as long. I’ve read up on the history, heard pretty much every significant artist and recording, and can speak knowledgeably about the genre’s highs and lows over the past few decades.
We’ve never been this low. I think I finally understand why that is.
Jonathan Keefe from Slant wrote this in his review of the JaneDear Girls album, and it really hit home with me:
…the JaneDear Girls use a couple of catchy melodies and garish costumes to mask the fact that they can’t sing even a little bit, and, if they could, wouldn’t have a single authentic thing to say. In other words, they’re exactly what country music, in the throes of a pretty severe identity crisis, doesn’t need right now: its own Katy Perry.
This is the paradox that’s increasingly devouring country music. Artists are singing more than ever about how country they are, yet they’re doing it with songs that sound less country than ever.
Perhaps all of these “loud and proud” country identity songs are a reflection of the country lifestyle being fully swallowed up by suburbia, and “country” is now more of a chosen lifestyle than it is something homegrown. But “country music” has almost completely shifted to “music about being country.” You don’t have to sound country, you just have to revel in being country.
Country music cannot retain its identity this way. As a radio format, it isn’t going anywhere. As the larger player on the field, it’s managed to absorb a good chunk of what we used to call Adult Top 40, picking up a few of their core artists along the way.
But as a relevant genre of its own? That can’t continue if the vast majority of the new mainstream artists have little connection to what came before them. Superstars are hard enough to come by as it is, and when you think about the ones who have emerged from country music in recent years – Sugarland, Keith Urban, Taylor Swift, Lady Antebellum – their tenuous links to country music as a distinct art form are virtually nonexistent.
Ten years ago, Carrie Underwood would’ve been grouped as a pop-country diva. These days, she’s the only recent superstar that even seems to care that her music sounds identifiably country. And while there is no shortage of alternative country acts who are connected to the genre’s roots, their very existence on the outskirts of the mainstream prevent them from having a meaningful enough impact to carry on country music’s rich legacy.
Without a new generation of country stars breaking through enough to really captivate the interest of the public, I see no way for country music to continue as a viable art form and culturally relevant presence in contemporary music.
The 11th Annual Country Music Critics’ Poll has just been published by Nashville Scene. It covers the 2010 year of country music. The participants of the poll consists of country music critics who spend their time listening to and analyzing stacks of music throughout the year in order to knowledgeably write about it for the purpose of either promoting excellent music or warning against the not so good stuff. Kevin, Dan and Tara are among these prestigious critics.
Each year, invited critics submit their ballots with their favorite music and artists in the appropriate categories. The poll includes the best albums, singles, male and female artists, reissues, live acts, duos and groups, songwriters, new acts, and the over all artists of the year. While the results include the usual suspects, they are mixed with some surprises or names that aren’t commonly associated with mainstream country.
Some of my favorite results include Raul Malo tied at #8 with Gary Allan for top males and Elizabeth Cook at #2 for top females, not to mention Sunny Sweeney’s “From A Table Away” landing at the #3 spot for singles. The most amusing result, however, is Jamey Johnson and Taylor Swift in the top two spots for songwriters.
What’s most fascinating about this process is that the critics have the opportunity to include comments with their ballots. These comments serve to clarify choices and pontificate on the state of country music and its various aspects. There are some insightful comments from both Dan and Tara, along with other critics that you might recognize from our blog roll.
Here are some of the cream of the crop comments that display a satisfyingly diverse array of perspectives:
“Lost amidst the rush to proclaim Jamey Johnson as the man to reclaim country music from pop acts like Taylor Swift is the fact that Johnson and Swift are cut from the precisely same cloth. Johnson is most often championed for the supposed authenticity of his songwriting, but is it really any more believable that he’s been “takin’ dee-pression pills in the Hollywood hills” than it is that Swift regrets not calling an ex when his birthday passed? Both Johnson and Swift have developed public personae and voices as songwriters that trade in the same suspension of disbelief. Swift’s music may not scan as “country” to the extent that Johnson’s does, but that isn’t because she’s any less authentic than Johnson. They both act like they’re “Playing the Part,” and they both do so awfully well.” —Jonathan Keefe, Slant Magazine
“Thank goodness the Internet and satellite radio are around to pick up FM’s slack, because brilliant would-be singles continue popping up on independent releases that Clear Channel won’t touch. My favorite two this year were Elizabeth Cook’s “El Camino” and Chely Wright’s “Notes to the Coroner.” The former: a hilarious country-rap about a creepy, mulleted lothario. The latter: a frank diary introduction from a recently deceased woman. Both: utterly unique and unshakably catchy.” —Dan Milliken, Country Universe
“In 2010, Grandpa told us about the good old days again. The most conspicuous presence on country radio in recent years has been this kindly old gentleman, lugging his aching bones out of bed to share some worldly wisdom. After years of hard labor and heartache, he’s now embarked on a second career as life coach for his hillbilly kin on recent singles from Lee Brice, Billy Currington, Craig Morgan and Alan Jackson (the matured mentor on Zac Brown’s “As She’s Walking Away”). Of course, country radio won’t fool with women over 40 except for Reba, so you never really get to hear Grandma’s side of things.” —Blake Boldt, The 9513
“Despite their two weak singles this year, “Our Kind of Love” and “Hello World,” I remain in Lady Antebellum’s corner. What hooks me is the way they’re able to inject gritty, tangible emotion into the glossiest of production and the vaguest of lyrics. That’s what elevates “Need You Now” to an aching confession, and that’s how, on a song that compares innocence to a condiment, Hillary Scott’s vocal performance alone manages to tell an evocative story.” —Tara Seetharam, Country Universe
“So if country music is doing so well artistically, why is it that whenever I turned on the radio in 2010, I heard mostly pop or rock songs with a token steel guitar thrown into the mix? I’ve long since given up hope of Americana artists ever getting picked up by mainstream radio, and I’ve pretty much come to terms with the fact that Jamey Johnson won’t be getting many (if any) hit songs no matter how good they are. But would it kill them to play some non-hyphenated country music a little more? I know that country-pop and country-rock are the flavors of the month, but where does that leave more traditional artists? I know I’d be more willing to tolerate Jason Aldean rapping or Jennifer Nettles singing with her stupid fake Jamaican accent if “Draw Me a Map” or “Will I Always Be This Way” was next on the playlist.” —Sam Gazdziak, The 9513
“In an August interview with Spinner, Ryan Bingham rejected the notion that he makes country music. Two weeks later, Bingham was named the Americana Music Association’s “Artist of the Year,” thanks in large part to his Academy Award-winning song “The Weary Kind,” a song he wrote for a movie about a country singer. In September, when asked about the state of country music today, rising star Justin Townes Earle told The Wall Street Journal that he’s embarrassed to be from Nashville because of the “shit songwriting, shit records and shit singers who are making a million dollars.” Even mainstream country stalwart Zac Brown distanced himself from the genre, telling American Songwriter in September, “The songs that I write are Southern, but I wouldn’t necessarily call them country.” It’s a shame — and an enormous loss for the genre — that the term “country music” has come to describe something so narrow that bright young artists like these choose not to identify themselves as country. Thank God for Jamey Johnson, who wears the mantle proudly.” —Jim Malec, American Twang
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