When the nominees were announced in August for the 44th annual CMA Awards, they sparked a firestorm of headlines –and thoughtful commentary by critics and fans alike– thanks to the CMA voters’ surprisingly bold moves. It’s all about change this year, as the voters revamped the ballot with a slew of fresh faces in almost all of the big categories.
How will it all play out? We’ll know for sure on Wednesday at 8pm Eastern, but before Gwenyth Paltrow throws on her cowboy boots, check out our staff picks and predictions and join the discussion in the comments below. And be sure to drop by Wednesday night for all of the CU live blog madness!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
- Lady Antebellum
- Miranda Lambert – Kevin
- Brad Paisley
- Keith Urban
- Zac Brown Band – Leeann, Dan, Tara
Kevin: Among the five nominees, Miranda Lambert has best represented the genre this year.
Leeann: I’m torn between Lambert and the Zac Brown Band as most deserving this year. I recently saw Lambert’s show and wasn’t incredibly impressed, however. While I have not yet attended a ZBB show, theirs is one of the few spots that I look forward to at awards shows these days. Moreover, I’m impressed by how much of a following they had even before they made any mainstream records.
Dan: Of these five, Zac Brown Band had the second-most success this year (after Lady A) and made the second-best music (after Lambert), so that’s pretty good standing. And I feel like giving this award to a grassroots act would be a good way for the industry to greet the future.
Tara: I’m consistently impressed by Zac Brown Band’s live performances, and it would be really refreshing to see them win – so I’ll go with them. (But I’m still disappointed that the first year my head and heart align on Carrie Underwood deserving an EOTY award, I can’t support her. I’m holding out for 2012…)
Will Win:
- Lady Antebellum
- Miranda Lambert – Tara
- Brad Paisley – Kevin, Leeann, Dan
- Keith Urban
- Zac Brown Band
Kevin: I’ve probably learned nothing from last year’s Swift sweep by going with Paisley again, but he’s the only nominee of veteran stature who hasn’t won yet.
Leeann: I can’t imagine that Paisley won’t finally win this one.
Dan: I was going to guess Lady A, since they’re sort of 2010′s “flavor of the year” the way Taylor Swift was 2009′s. But when I think about it, Swift’s ascent was greater and more gradual, and she stood in contrast to the rest of her nominee pool (four male veterans) in a way Lady A don’t with theirs (in which they’re one of three new competitors). So, Paisley.
Tara: I have no rationale. My gut says Lambert.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
- Dierks Bentley – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
- Brad Paisley
- Blake Shelton
- George Strait
- Keith Urban
Kevin: Bentley made the best music this year.
Leeann: Bentley may not have the best technical voice out of these nominees, but he has the most interesting and distinctive of them, which is always something that I gravitate toward. Also, I agree with Kevin that he’s made the best music this year.
Dan: Shelton and Bentley are the only ones in this pool who made significant career strides this year – Shelton at radio, and Bentley creatively. Since I’m backing someone else in the Album category, this is where I’d like to see Bentley recognized for following his muse.
Tara: I guess Up on the Ridge is as good a reason as any to fall off the Brad-for-MVOTY bandwagon. He’s a close second for me, though.
Will Win:
- Dierks Bentley – Kevin, Dan
- Brad Paisley – Leeann, Tara
- Blake Shelton
- George Strait
- Keith Urban
Kevin: I can see the roots album giving Bentley an edge. Then again, Paisley could just repeat again, or Shelton may suddenly have deep support among voters. I say, Bentley by a nose.
Leeann: I think that voters will reflexively give this one to Paisley again.
Dan: I’ll ditto Kevin.
Tara: I can’t really see Paisley losing this one, but I think if he does lose to Bentley, it’ll be a telling moment.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
- Miranda Lambert – Kevin, Leeann, Dan
- Martina McBride
- Reba McEntire
- Taylor Swift
- Carrie Underwood – Tara
Kevin: Underwood and McEntire are the women who made my favorite singles from the eligibility period, but Lambert’s the only one who hasn’t won this award. She’s not overdue, but she’s due.
Leeann: Kevin’s right that Lambert is due to win this award now, not to mention that she’s my favorite female singer out of the bunch.
Dan: Lambert still isn’t at Underwood’s sales level, much less Swift’s, and I don’t see her catching up before traditional music sales die out altogether. Doesn’t matter, though: her habit of making creative music will sustain her regardless of industry conditions, and will elevate the genre in the long run. It’s time to look ahead.
Tara: I’m 50/50 on Lambert and Underwood. I’m not sure how to balance Lambert’s long overdue mega-year against Underwood’s continuous stream of solid success, ambassadorship and artistic growth. I’ll be happy either way, but personal investment’s got me in Underwood’s camp.
Will Win:
- Miranda Lambert - Kevin, Dan, Tara
- Martina McBride
- Reba McEntire
- Taylor Swift
- Carrie Underwood- Leeann
Kevin: I’d be shocked if Lambert lost, and can’t even make a guess as to who she’d lose to, should she somehow lose.
Leeann: It’s between Lambert and Underwood, but I give Underwood the edge, especially since it’s somewhat surprising that she didn’t get an Entertainer nomination. Although Lambert has gained popularity in the past year, Underwood is still one of the two biggest females in the business and I refuse to predict that Swift will win the award.
Dan: Lambert’s had enough mainstream success this year to give tasteful voters an excuse to give her some props.
Tara: The voters love them some Lambert this year, and I think of all her nominations, this is the one she’s got in the bag.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
- Brooks & Dunn
- Joey + Rory – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
- Montgomery Gentry
- Steel Magnolia
- Sugarland
Kevin: I’m assuming “Stuck Like Glue” was after the eligibility period, so I think actually making some music over the year is important. Joey + Rory are the only duo I like who have yet to win.
Leeann: I simply like them the most, but I know they don’t have a chance.
Dan: I mean, why not? Nobody on this ballot has done much but tour.
Tara: I’m not very excited about any of these acts right now, to be honest. It would just be heartwarming to see Joey + Rory pick this one up.
Will Win:
- Brooks & Dunn – Kevin, Dan
- Joey + Rory
- Montgomery Gentry
- Steel Magnolia
- Sugarland – Leeann, Tara
Kevin: Sugarland’s year off helped guarantee a B&D victory lap, which would probably have happened anyway.
Leeann: It’s between Brooks & Dunn and Sugarland. I should just pick B&D because of their retirement, but I’m still going with Sugarland because of their popularity.
Dan: Brooks & Dunn, unless voters ignore the eligibility period and stick with Sugarland.
Tara: Isn’t the Brooks & Dunn retirement thing kind of old news by now, or am I just out of touch?
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
- Lady Antebellum – Tara
- Little Big Town
- Rascal Flatts
- The Band Perry
- Zac Brown Band – Kevin, Leeann, Dan
Kevin: Let’s start getting some variety in this category, instead of having Lady A own it for five years.
Leeann: They’re the only group that I like right now.
Dan: I’ll probably be rooting for Little Big Town come ACM season, but for now…
Tara: I don’t want Lady A to own this for five years, either, but I do think they deserve to win this year. At least in my opinion, their huge success on the charts and with album sales can be attributed much to their ability to (I know, I know – I’m a broken record) hone in on specific emotion and deliver it in a way that people can really connect with. There’s some meat (and a heck of a lot of potential) behind their success that tends to go unnoticed.
Will Win:
- Lady Antebellum – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
- Little Big Town
- Rascal Flatts
- The Band Perry
- Zac Brown Band
Kevin: Lady A and Zac BB are both very popular with voters, but I’m thinking that this is the only race where voters can reward Lady A for dominating at retail this year.
Leeann: Ditto to Kevin.
Dan: New Artist will be ZBB’s consolation prize.
Tara: …And I think the voters will agree with my pick, if not for the same reasons.
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
- Luke Bryan
- Easton Corbin
- Jerrod Niemann
- Chris Young – Leeann
- Zac Brown Band - Kevin, Dan, Tara
Kevin: ZBB is in another league, which makes me wish they still called this the Horizon Award.
Leeann: It’s weird to see ZBB here considering their nominations elsewhere, so I think that Chris Young has the most potential of the remaining nominees.
Dan: I’d love to see Young take this, but ZBB can’t be denied.
Tara: This is a great line-up, but there’s no question that ZBB deserves this win.
Will Win:
- Luke Bryan
- Easton Corbin
- Jerrod Niemann
- Chris Young
- Zac Brown Band – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
Kevin: ZBB is nominated for Entertainer of the Year, much like Ricky Skaggs was when he won Horizon in 1982. (Skaggs also won Male Vocalist, which means I may have to rethink my pick for Vocal Group, too.)
Leeann: Kevin’s argument is too compelling not to follow. Also, they are the most popular of the nominees, therefore, probably the most deserving.
Dan: Everyone here but Niemann has had a significant breakthrough. With ZBB in the mix, though, it’s no contest.
Tara: It’s a funky set-up to have ZBB nominated for both the top and bottom (figuratively) prizes, and I think this one will play out exactly the way Kevin explained it.
Album of the Year
Should Win:
- Dierks Bentley, Up on the Ridge – Leeann
- Lady Antebellum, Need You Now
- Miranda Lambert, Revolution – Dan, Tara
- George Strait, Twang
- Carrie Underwood, Play On – Kevin
Kevin: I have all five of these albums, and Underwood’s is the one that I listen to the most, with Strait a not-too-close second. In 2010, of course, “listening to an album” really means “how many songs do I pull off the album and put on a play list,” which has Underwood ahead by three tracks.
Leeann: If I follow Kevin’s test, Bently wins with Lambert as a close second. Bentley’s is, hands down, my favorite album of these choices. I’d love to see something this different from the mainstream win.
Dan: Also employing Kevin’s test, I flip-flop Leeann’s first and second choices. Only about two thirds of Revolution click for me a year later, but those two thirds have helped redefined what I thought modern country could be (still flipping about “Me and Your Cigarettes”), and the stray third at least tried.
Tara: I’m not going to follow Kevin’s test: I don’t play Revolution quite as much as three of the other albums on here, but I feel it’s the most deserving. It’s sharp, smart and an excellent example of an artist taking her potential by the horns.
Will Win:
- Dierks Bentley, Up on the Ridge
- Lady Antebellum, Need You Now
- Miranda Lambert, Revolution – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
- George Strait, Twang
- Carrie Underwood, Play On
Kevin: I really do think Lambert will sweep. I think she should’ve won for her last album, which wasn’t even nominated, but I’m not going to complain about an ambitious album getting the prize.
Leeann: I’m guessing either Lambert or Underwood. Although Lambert has the better album, Underwood has the slight edge because it sold better. I wouldn’t be especially surprised if Lady A takes it though.
Dan: Seems to me like a toss-up between Lady A’s commercial favorite and Lambert’s critical one. Lambert?
Tara: This is Lambert’s to lose, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if Lady A (or maybe Bentley?) snatched it.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
- Easton Corbin, “A Little More Country Than That”
- Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now”
- Miranda Lambert, “The House That Built Me” – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
- Miranda Lambert, “White Liar”
- Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins, “Hillbilly Bone”
Kevin: It’s the big chunk of meat in a category of mashed potatoes and candied apples.
Leeann: Kevin just made me really hungry, therefore, kind of distracted. It’s a good thing that my choice doesn’t need justification then.
Dan: “Need You Now” had the biggest impact, of course, but “The House That Built Me” was no slouch either – four weeks at #1 – and was arguably the riskiest, most rewarding release. Also of note: she sang it real pretty.
Tara: “Need You Now” and “The House That Built Me” are performed equally well, but “House” is the better-written song. I’ll go with “House” on the basis of that, but I do think country music will be represented justly either way. Both songs resonate with pure, compelling sentiment.
Will Win:
- Easton Corbin, “A Little More Country Than That”
- Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now” - Dan, Tara
- Miranda Lambert, “The House That Built Me” - Kevin, Leeann
- Miranda Lambert, “White Liar”
- Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins, “Hillbilly Bone”
Kevin: I think Lady A would have a better shot if they hadn’t won last year for “I Run to You.”
Leeann: It’s simply the clear winner.
Dan: Again, somewhat for diversity’s sake, I’ll guess that many voters have already forgotten about “I Run to You” – I certainly have – and will use this category to recognize the biggest hit, while they use Song to recognize the best one.
Tara: I’m jumping on Dan’s train…
Song of the Year
Should Win:
- “A Little More Country Than That” – Rory Lee Feek, Don Poythress & Wynn Varble
- “Need You Now” – Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott
- “The House That Built Me” – Tom Douglas & Allen Shamblin – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
- “Toes” – Zac Brown, Wyatt Durrette, John Hopkins & Shawn Mullins
- “White Liar” – Natalie Hemby & Miranda Lambert
Kevin: Overall, I think that “Need You Now” is a better Single than Song, and that “The House That Built Me” is a better Song than Single, but “House” is better than “Need” on both counts.
Leeann: I’m just being repetative now. It’s the best single and song of the year.
Dan: It’s the deepest-cutting of the five and the most unique.
Tara: “The House That Built Me” is, quite simply, beautifully written.
Will Win:
- “A Little More Country Than That” – Rory Lee Feek, Don Poythress & Wynn Varble
- “Need You Now” – Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley & Hillary Scott – Kevin
- “The House That Built Me” – Tom Douglas & Allen Shamblin – Leeann, Dan, Tara
- “Toes” – Zac Brown, Wyatt Durrette, John Hopkins & Shawn Mullins
- “White Liar” – Natalie Hemby & Miranda Lambert
Kevin: Here’s where they can honor “Need You Now” without shortchanging Lambert.
Leeann: I just see “House” sweeping in all possible categories.
Dan: They often manage to pick the actual best song of the five, especially when that song is also the most “serious.”
Tara: This just seems way to obvious; I don’t see how the voters could bypass the most clearly deserving song.
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
- Dierks Bentley featuring Jamey Johnson & Miranda Lambert, “Bad Angel” – Tara
- Kenny Chesney with Dave Matthews, “I’m Alive”
- Alan Jackson with Lee Ann Womack, “‘Til the End” – Leeann, Dan
- Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins, “Hillbilly Bone” – Kevin
- Zac Brown Band featuring Kid Rock, “Can’t You See”
Kevin: I don’t find any of these five songs particularly compelling, so I’ll go with the two artists who are longest overdue for some CMA love.
Leeann: I’m not big on any of these either, but the Jackson/Womack collaboration is the one I like the most if I have to choose.
Dan: I’d be fine with either “Til the End” or “Bad Angel”. Whatevs.
Tara: The Jackson/Womack song falls squarely within my typical taste, but “Bad Angel” gets under my skin – in a good way. It’s just a really cool record.
Will Win:
- Dierks Bentley featuring Jamey Johnson & Miranda Lambert, “Bad Angel”
- Kenny Chesney with Dave Matthews, “I’m Alive”
- Alan Jackson with Lee Ann Womack, “‘Til the End”
- Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins, “Hillbilly Bone”- Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
- Zac Brown Band featuring Kid Rock, “Can’t You See”
Kevin: Its presence in the Single category makes “Hillbilly Bone” the most likely winner.
Leeann: It’s the most mainstream of all the choices.
Dan: “Bad Angel” could play a welcome spoiler, since all three of the artists behind it command a lot of respect right now. I still see this going to the hit, though.
Tara: I’m predicting the big boys will win this one. It’s a decent song, but it makes me laugh that it gets as much love as it does – I mean, this is the song that has Adkins admitting that he’s “always wanted to sing a bone song”…!
Music Video of the Year
Should Win:
- Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now”
- Miranda Lambert, “The House That Built Me”
- Miranda Lambert, “White Liar” – Kevin, Dan, Tara
- Brad Paisley, “Water”
- Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins, “Hillbilly Bone”
Kevin: Lambert made the two best clips, with the humor of “Liar” outpacing the literalism of “House.”
Dan: The “House” video is beautifully conceived and directed, but somehow the “White Liar” one just sticks out more. Maybe it’s because “White Liar” is a thinner song, so the video has more of a chance to establish its own identity.
Tara: The “White Liar” video is the brightest and most creative of the bunch.
Will Win:
- Lady Antebellum, “Need You Now”
- Miranda Lambert, “The House That Built Me”
- Miranda Lambert, “White Liar” – Kevin, Dan, Tara
- Brad Paisley, “Water”
- Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins, “Hillbilly Bone”
Kevin: I think “White Liar” has won all the video awards this year, so I guess it will win again.
Dan: This is the logical place to reward the other Lambert single the CMA liked this year.
Tara: One of Lambert’s videos will win for sure. My best guess is “White Liar” since it’s won before, like Kevin said.
Musician of the Year
Should Win:
- Paul Franklin (steel guitar) – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
- Dann Huff (guitar)
- Brent Mason (guitar)
- Mac McAnally (guitar)
- Randy Scruggs (guitar)
Kevin: Paul Franklin is the nominee I’m rooting for the most this year. Give the man, and the steel guitar, some long overdue recognition!
Leeann: It’s the steel guitar for heaven’s sake! It should be a no-brainer, even though it’s clearly not.
Dan: I won’t pretend I know what’s going on. I’m just going to root for the guy who hasn’t won yet until he finally does.
Tara: How can you pass up the steel guitar?
Will Win:
- Paul Franklin (steel guitar)
- Dann Huff (guitar)
- Brent Mason (guitar)
- Mac McAnally (guitar) – Kevin, Leeann, Dan, Tara
- Randy Scruggs (guitar)
Kevin: Mac McAnally won the last two years, so I guess he’s the favorite. Did I mention that Franklin is 0-for-17 going into this year’s ceremony?
Leeann: I suppose its a habit to give it to McAnally at this point. So, why should I be so bold as to predict anyone else?
Dan: No justice!
Tara: Just going off of pattern here.
Feel that chill in the air? It’s not just climate change, friends. The music industry is suffering through historic lows in record sales, the worst since SoundScan started tallying them in 1991.
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