They’re as hope-dangling and ridiculous as they’ve ever been, those Country Music Association voters, and the CU staff has picked and predicted their 2013 awards below. Let us know what you think, and check back for our live blog on Wednesday at 7 p.m. CST!
Entertainer of the Year
Should Win:
- Jason Aldean
- Luke Bryan
- Blake Shelton
- George Strait
- Taylor Swift
Will Win:
- Jason Aldean
- Luke Bryan
- Blake Shelton – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
- George Strait
- Taylor Swift
Dan: Sadly, it’s become hard to care about the night’s biggest prize. Swift and Strait are the two I can stomach right now, and neither of them actually had much to do with the country scene this past year—the former because she was flexing her pop muscles, the latter because he’s winding down.
Ben: I want to care, but I really don’t. There’s only one artist whom I could have supported unequivocally, and she didn’t get a nomination.
Jonathan: The CMAs have a tendency to lag a few years behind peak commercial trends, so I think Bryan will have to wait another year or two before he takes this award. While Bryan, Aldean, and Shelton could split votes among the bro contingent (presumably, to the benefit of Strait), I think Shelton’s visibility will be enough to earn him another win here.
Tara: This was Carrie Underwood’s year. I’m angry, unsurprised and completely apathetic about the rest of these contenders.
Kevin: Shelton won last year and if anything, his star has only shone brighter this year. That being said, if I was a CMA voter, I’d leave this category blank. Carrie Underwood was this year’s Entertainer of the Year.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
- Jason Aldean
- Luke Bryan – Kevin
- Eric Church – Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Dan
- Blake Shelton
- Keith Urban
Will Win:
- Jason Aldean
- Luke Bryan – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
- Eric Church
- Blake Shelton – Kevin
- Keith Urban
Dan: Again, pretty indifferent here.
Ben: Church was between albums this year, but he’s the one whom I feel has represented country music the best. With Urban being past his commercial peak, I’m going to give the edge to Luke Bryan for his current red-hot momentum, but I honestly couldn’t care less which of the three dudebros gets it.
Jonathan: I’d replace four-fifths of this lineup with Gary Allan, Dierks Bentley, Darius Rucker, and Chris Young. If Bryan won’t win Entertainer of the Year, this will be his consolation prize.
Tara: I feel a little guilty rewarding Church’s residual awesomeness from Chief over Aldean’s admittedly solid year, but I’m still one redeeming single away from getting over “She’s Country.” Like Jonathan said, though, I think this is where the voters will reward Bryan.
Kevin: I’d give it to Bryan simply because he’s had a good year and has a good voice. Another Shelton win seems inevitable to me.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Should Win:
- Kelly Clarkson
- Miranda Lambert
- Kacey Musgraves
- Taylor Swift
- Carrie Underwood – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
Will Win:
- Kelly Clarkson
- Miranda Lambert – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin
- Kacey Musgraves – Tara
- Taylor Swift
- Carrie Underwood
Dan: Who knows? Voters could give Lambert a record-tying (with Reba McEntire) four-peat, or maybe give Underwood her fourth trophy instead, or maybe give Swift a second one just to be zany, or dismiss the stats entirely and make a surprise investment in Musgraves. I can imagine any of those scenarios playing out.
Ben: I’ll probably be 100% Team Kacey at next year’s ACMs, but right now I want to see Underwood recognized for her incredible Blown Away era. As Dan noted above, this category is difficult to predict this year. I’m going to play it safe and bet on Lambert, but Kelly Clarkson is the only one without a shot.
Jonathan: Since there are far stronger albums than Blown Away in contention for Album of the Year, this is where I’d prefer to see Underwood recognized for the artistic gains she’s made during her current era. Lambert basically told voters to do just that during her acceptance speech for Female Vocalist of the Year during the ACMs a few months back, but it seems doubtful that they will. She seems poised to repeat, even though she’s coming off the most poorly received and lowest selling run of her career. Based on the quality of what was released during the eligibility period, I would have preferred to see Brandy Clark, Ashley Monroe, Kellie Pickler, and LeAnn Rimes squaring off against Underwood.
Tara: Just going out on a limb here with Musgraves; it feels like this category is due for a change. Or maybe that change will be a throwback to Underwood? One can hope.
Kevin: I think Lambert will win out of force of habit, with bonus votes for having the good taste to cover Musgraves and Clark before they both became breakout artists this year. Underwood made the best music and, as always, sang it better than the rest.
Vocal Group of the Year
Should Win:
- The Band Perry
- Eli Young Band
- Lady Antebellum
- Little Big Town – Ben, Jonathan, Tara
- Zac Brown Band – Dan, Kevin
Will Win:
- The Band Perry – Kevin
- Eli Young Band
- Lady Antebellum
- Little Big Town – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara
- Zac Brown Band
Dan: I suppose that Little Big Town will repeat—but with “Your Side of the Bed” having doused their white-hot momentum, it’s hard to say for sure. Perhaps voters will finally throw Zac Brown Band the bone, if Brown’s Luke Bryan comments didn’t ruffle too many feathers. [Update: And ditto what Kevin says below.]
Ben: Little Big Town may have lost some steam with “Your Side of the Bed,” but they’re still going into the ring with a platinum album and two big hit singles, and they’re one of the only groups with multiple nominations this year. The trophy is theirs to lose.
Jonathan: Had The Band Perry scored more across-the-board support, I’d say they might have been able to pull off the upset here, but this remains Little Big Town’s to lose. Hopefully, a repeat victory will lend “Sober,” one of the year’s finest singles and arguably a new career-best for LBT, greater momentum at radio.
Tara: Cheers to that, Jonathan. Agreed.
Kevin: The Band Perry had a new album this year that was well-received. My personal pick is Zac Brown Band, only because I want last year’s Little Big Town win to start a new era in this category of acknowledging the overdue. Having the Dixie Chicks rack up four wins in five years is one thing. Rascal Flatts and Lady Antebellum dominating in the same way robbed the award of its luster. Last year, it got a little back. Let’s keep it going.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Should Win:
- Big & Rich
- The Civil Wars – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
- Florida Georgia Line
- Love and Theft
- Sugarland
- Thompson Square
Will Win:
- Big & Rich
- The Civil Wars
- Florida Georgia Line – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
- Love and Theft
- Sugarland
- Thompson Square
Dan: After years of sluggish Sugarland and shruggish Thompson Square, at least this year’s winning duo will have clear commercial heft behind them. Too bad I’m talking about Florida Georgia Line and not the also-quite-successful Civil Wars.
Ben: Whatever.
Jonathan: Same as it ever was: This category is years overdue to merge with Vocal Group. And the nomination for Sugarland is absurd.
Tara: I can’t decide what’s more amusing: Sugarland’s nomination or Florida Georgia Line’s inevitable win. (Although it does kind of feel like Sugarland is still haunting country radio with that new Band Perry single, no?)
Kevin: The Civil Wars. I swear they’re only nominating them so we can feel extra bad when they lose to Florida Georgia Line. (See: Rascal Flatts over Alison Krauss & Union Station, Martina McBride over Dolly Parton and Patty Loveless…)
New Artist of the Year
Should Win:
- Lee Brice
- Brett Eldredge
- Florida Georgia Line
- Kacey Musgraves – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
- Kip Moore
Will Win:
- Lee Brice
- Brett Eldredge
- Florida Georgia Line – Dan, Ben
- Kacey Musgraves – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
- Kip Moore
Dan: Musgraves is class valedictorian, and Moore’s a solid B+ student, but expect the boys of Florida Georgia Line to cruise in on baseball scholarship and come out on top.
Ben: Musgraves has a chance, but I don’t know if her critical clout will be enough to compete with the “Cruise” phenomenon.
Jonathan: That Musgraves is the night’s leading nominee gives me hope that she can overcome Florida Georgia Line’s commercial heft. That she had the balls to push “Follow Your Arrow” as a proper single puts me firmly in her corner.
Tara: Moore is my personal favorite here, but Musgraves outclasses them all. I’ll throw my optimism in with Jonathan and Kevin.
Kevin: This is a defining moment for the CMA’s. Musgraves will help restore their credibility. Florida Georgia Line will destroy what’s left of it. FWIW, Ricky Skaggs beat Lee Greenwood and Mark Chesnutt beat John Michael Montgomery. Then again, Rascal Flatts beat Nickel Creek and Terri Gibbs beat Rosanne Cash…
Album of the Year
Should Win:
- Little Big Town, Tornado – Jonathan
- Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – Dan, Ben
- Blake Shelton, Based On a True Story…
- Taylor Swift, Red
- Carrie Underwood, Blown Away – Tara, Kevin
Will Win:
- Little Big Town, Tornado – Ben, Tara
- Kacey Musgraves, Same Trailer Different Park – Jonathan
- Blake Shelton, Based On a True Story… – Dan
- Taylor Swift, Red
- Carrie Underwood, Blown Away – Kevin
Dan: Tough call. In recent years, the CMA has coalesced around the album with the most “story” value, whether that story was total domination (Fearless, My Kinda Party) or a respected artist finally hitting pay dirt (Revolution, Chief). Tornado seems like a fit for that second grouping, except that Little Big Town’s pay dirt was already last year. So the field seems open.
Ben: Of the four albums that have any real business being nominated for country awards, I consider the Musgraves set to be the strongest, but my gut says that it’s going to come down to either Shelton or Little Big Town. I’m going to be optimistic and predict an LBT victory.
Jonathan: I’m not nearly as bullish on Musgraves’ album as many others are, but it seems like this is safest place for voters to recognize her distinctive, critically acclaimed work. Tornado is my pick for the most consistently excellent set of this line-up; Red hits some glorious highs, but it’s also wildly uneven and has little business being recognized as a country album.
Tara: Tornado has some really fantastic production, and Blown Away is a stand-out showcase of Underwood’s interpretive abilities. Personal investment puts me in Underwood’s camp, but based on momentum and the fact that Musgraves is new, I think Little Big Town will take this.
Kevin: Musgraves has the most critical support, but Underwood made a much better album, in my opinion. I’m going out on a limb here and saying Underwood will win. My logic is that she had an incredible year and this is the best category to acknowledge that in. Also, a debut album has never won this award. There’s always a first time, but Musgraves has a lot of history up against her here.
Single of the Year
Should Win:
- Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise”
- Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
- Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Jonathan, Tara, Kevin
- Kacey Musgraves, “Merry Go ‘Round” – Dan, Ben
- Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel”
Will Win:
- Florida Georgia Line, “Cruise” – Dan, Jonathan, Ben
- Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
- Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
- Kacey Musgraves, “Merry Go ‘Round”
- Darius Rucker, “Wagon Wheel” – Tara, Kevin
Dan: “Cruise” is the behemoth here, and behemoths tend to win Single.
Ben: Dan said it.
Jonathan: I’d like to think that a record-setting run atop Billboard’s ridiculous mongrel chart would be its own reward, but it probably won’t be.
Kevin: There have been some goofy winners in the past. “Elvira.” “Achy Breaky Heart.” “Bop.” But there aren’t any in the recent past. I think that “Wagon Wheel” allows the CMA to pick a big mainstream hit that has a bit of alt-country cred, should they decide against a Musgraves sweep.
Tara: I agree with Kevin that “Wagon Wheel” seems like a nice compromise for the voters. I’d be cool with any of the latter three winning, but to me, “Mama’s Broken Heart” has the most momentum from start to finish.
Song of the Year
Should Win:
- “I Drive Your Truck” (Lee Brice) – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Jimmy Yeary
- “Mama’s Broken Heart” (Miranda Lambert) – Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally and Kacey Musgraves – Kevin
- “Merry Go ‘Round” (Kacey Musgraves) – Kacey Musgraves, Shane McAnally and Josh Osborne – Dan, Ben, Tara
- “Pontoon” (Little Big Town) – Barry Dean, Natalie Hemby and Luke Laird
- “Wagon Wheel” (Darius Rucker) – Bob Dylan and Ketch Secor – Dan, Jonathan
Will Win:
- “I Drive Your Truck” (Lee Brice) – Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Jimmy Yeary - Dan, Jonathan
- “Mama’s Broken Heart” (Miranda Lambert) – Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally and Kacey Musgraves
- “Merry Go ‘Round” (Kacey Musgraves) – Kacey Musgraves, Shane McAnally and Josh Osborne – Ben, Tara, Kevin
- “Pontoon” (Little Big Town) – Barry Dean, Natalie Hemby and Luke Laird
- “Wagon Wheel” (Darius Rucker) – Bob Dylan and Ketch Secor
Dan: “Wagon Wheel” is a proven standard, but voters will probably want to go with something newer, and I guess I do, too. There’s a decent chance that Musgraves will get acknowledged here with “Merry Go ‘Round,” but with two co-writes in the pool, her danger is vote-splitting—and if that does happen, I defer to Jonathan’s logic below. Plus, frankly, CMA voters love songs about deceased loved ones.
Ben: It’s definitely possible that vote-splitting may be turn out to be Musgraves’ undoing in this category, but my guess is that “Merry Go ‘Round” will ultimately overshadow “Mama’s Broken Heart,” and that this will be where she gets her trip to the podium.
Jonathan: I’m all-in for the idea of recognizing brilliant songs that should have been hits a decade ago. Next year, can we get Drive-By Truckers’ “Outfit” or Neko Case’s “Deep Red Bells,” please? This year, I just can’t see the CMA giving an award to Bob Dylan, and, as much as I’d love to see Brandy Clark win, I think the Musgraves co-writes will split votes. Which leaves a frivolous holdover from last year to face off against the only “truck” song in years that’s worth even half a damn. I think the latter pulls off the night’s only real upset.
Tara: Lots of solid choices here; even “Pontoon” has a melody worth respecting. “Merry Go ‘Round” just edges out “Mama’s Broken Heart” for me, but I think the voters will be more pointed with their choice and reward Musgraves for her breakout song.
Kevin: “Merry Go ‘Round” fits in well with previous female writer wins. Distinct point of view, attention to details, and some quiet feminist commentary. My pick is “Mama’s Broken Heart”, which I think is just brilliant. “Line your lips and keep them closed.” Wow.
Music Video of the Year
Should Win:
- Carrie Underwood, “Blown Away” – Ben, Kevin, Tara
- Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies, “Boys ‘Round Here”
- Lady Antebellum, “Downtown”
- Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
- Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
- Little Big Town, “Tornado” – Dan, Jonathan
Will Win:
- Carrie Underwood, “Blown Away” – Dan, Ben, Jonathan, Kevin, Tara
- Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies, “Boys ‘Round Here”
- Lady Antebellum, “Downtown”
- Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care”
- Miranda Lambert, “Mama’s Broken Heart”
- Little Big Town, “Tornado”
Dan: The Underwood clip was made to win this award, but I find it silly. Why does she have lie around all sexily on that bed in the tornado shelter?
Ben: Little Big Town’s “Tornado” is also a worthy contender, but Underwood’s “Blown Away” video is an absolute tour de force.
Jonathan: The idea that this could be how the Pistol Annies win a CMA award just makes my teeth hurt. As big a fan of hers as I may be, Miranda’s mugging in the video for “Mama’s Broken Heart” makes her laughable acting gig on Law & Order: Perverts Unit seem measured and subtle by comparison.
Kevin: Because why shouldn’t there be two winners in this category that give homage to Oz?
Tara: Tornadoes scares the crap out of me.
Musical Event of the Year
Should Win:
- Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies, “Boys ‘Round Here”
- Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly, “Cruise” (Remix)
- Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush” – Jonathan, Ben, Tara
- Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – Dan, Kevin
- Jason Aldean with Luke Bryan and Eric Church, “The Only Way I Know”
Will Win:
- Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies, “Boys ‘Round Here”
- Florida Georgia Line featuring Nelly, “Cruise”
- Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill, “Don’t Rush”
- Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban, “Highway Don’t Care” – Jonathan, Ben, Dan, Kevin, Tara
- Jason Aldean with Luke Bryan and Eric Church, “The Only Way I Know”
Ben: Clarkson and Gill made the best record of the lot, but it doesn’t have the commercial muscle to pull off a victory, so I’m giving the edge to McGraw and Company.
Jonathan: Cosigning Ben’s comment, word for word.
Dan: “Highway Don’t Care” is kinda weird and meh, but it’s not “Boys ‘Round Here” and “The Only Way I Know”. For this, I am grateful.
Tara: I swear I’m not throwing this to Clarkson and Gill just because they’re Clarkson and Gill – I can stomach not one of these other songs. Part of me thinks Aldean and co. might take this, but McGraw and co. seems more likely.
Kevin: “Highway Don’t Care” made me enjoy both McGraw and Swift as singers, not just song pickers/songwriters. For that alone, the win.
Musician of the Year 
Should Win:
- Sam Bush (Mandolin) – Jonathan, Ben
- Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – Kevin
- Dann Huff (Guitar)
- Brent Mason (Guitar)
- Mac McAnally (Guitar)
Will Win:
- Sam Bush (Mandolin)
- Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
- Dann Huff (Guitar)
- Brent Mason (Guitar)
- Mac McAnally (Guitar)
Ben: I’ll be all for Paul Franklin next year thanks to Bakersfield, but this year I would like to see Sam Bush get his due.
Jonathan: Bush may not have a MacArthur fellowship like Chris Thile, but his progressive mandolin work is certainly overdue for recognition. Hard to begrudge Franklin, though, as Bakersfield is one of the year’s best albums.
Kevin: Until he wins. I will pick him until he wins.
Does failure to reach a consensus indicate a year that lacked quality, or a year that had enough interesting singles that subjective taste is enough to prevent a consensus?
