The 2026 Grammy Awards will be doled out this Sunday. Despite a banner year for the genre, country music was shut out from the General Field categories but for the contributions of two songwriters. Within the genre’s own categories, proven Grammy favorites like Chris Stapleton, Alison Krauss, Molly Tuttle, and Willie Nelson square off against acts like Margo Price, Tyler Childers, Jesse Welles (…), and Zach Top, who are all looking for breakthrough wins.
Our best guesses as to the eventual winners and personal vote-getters in each category are outlined here for posterity and would-be bettors.
Onward.
General Field
Album of the Year
Chromakopia, Tyler, The Creator
DeBí TiRAR MáS FOToS, Bad Bunny – Will Win
GNX, Kendrick Lamar
Let God Sort Em Out, Clipse, Pusha T, & Malice – Should Win
Man’s Best Friend, Sabrina Carpenter
Mayhem, Lady Gaga
MUTT, Leon Thomas
SWAG, Justin Bieber
Setting aside the fact that COWBOY CARTER was and remains a great album worthy of the distinction, the prevailing narrative around 2025’s Album Of The Year contest was that Beyoncé was owed the win after multiple previous slights. Early in this year’s race, there was a similar narrative around Kendrick Lamar, but that chatter has cooled off considerably throughout the voting period. Especially after his well-deserved triumphs in the General Field last year, no one seems quite as bullish on recognizing what’s maybe his fourth-best album.
The best hip-hop– and best overall– album here actually belongs to Clipse, who made the shortlist on what feels like actual passion for the album itself. But with two other rap albums to split votes, this award will most certainly go to one of the pop albums. The Gaga and Sabrina Stanbases have been hurling epithets at each other all awards season long, ignoring the fact that their voters’ Venn Diagrams overlap far more than they diverge. That clears the way for the wildly popular and very, very strong album from Bad Bunny to triumph, just a week before the superstar takes the field at the Super Bowl halftime show.
Record of the Year
“Abracadabra,” Lady Gaga
“Anxiety,” Doechii
“APT.,” ROSÉ feat. Bruno Mars – Will Win
“DtMF,” Bad Bunny
“luther,” Kendrick Lamar with SZA – Should Win
“Manchild,” Sabrina Carpenter
“The Subway,” Chappell Roan
“WILDFLOWER,” Billie Eilish
This seems like the General Field category where Lamar is most likely to pull off a win, going back-to-back in a relatively rare feat after winning with “Not Like Us” a year ago. But it’s a competitive category– only Eilish’s single and the gorgeous but relatively under-appreciated Chappell Roan track would be surprising winners. Here’s hoping “The Subway” wins for Best Solo Pop Vocal Performance.
There’s a loud contingent who insist that Gaga is owed a General Field win, and it’s easier to conceive of her winning for a single than a full album, and whatever works about “Abracadabra” does come down to its production and her performance. And Doechii seems poised to be a full-on Grammy darling, even if “Anxiety” is actually a hundred years old and her most divisive release to date. Either of them could conceivably win. Still, gut says Kendrick and SZA sneak this one out, but brain just can’t bet against Bruno Mars in the General Field.
Song of the Year
“Abracadabra,” Lady Gaga, Henry Walter, & Andrew Watt
“Anxiety,” Jaylah Hickmon
“APT.,” Amy Allen, Christopher Brody Brown, Rogét Chahayed,Omer Fedi, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Chae Young Park, Theron Thomas & Henry Walter – Will Win
“DtMF,” Marco Daniel Borrero, Scott Dittrich, Benjamin Falik, Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, Hugo René Sención Sanabria, Tyler Spry & Roberto José Rosado Torres
“Golden,” EJAE, Park Hong Jun, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo & Mark Sonnenblick
“luther,” Jack Antonoff, Roshwita Larisha Bacha, Matthew Bernard, Scott Bridgeway, Sam Dew, Ink, Kendrick Lamar, Solána Rowe, Mark Anthony Spears & Kamasi Washington – Should Win
“Manchild,” Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff & Sabrina Carpenter
“WILDFLOWER,” Billie Eilish O’Connell & Finneas O’Connell
Same logic as Record of the Year, really, though I think it’s especially odd that “Golden” and “The Subway” weren’t swapped across the two categories. The K-Pop Demon Hunters will likely win the Pop Duo / Group Grammy to go along with an Oscar for Best Original Song in a few weeks, but they’re a longshot here.
Again, I hesitate to bet against Grammy voters and their love for all things Bruno Mars. But I’m particularly keen on “luther” here, because it would bag a Grammy for INK, whose Big Buskin’ was one of 2025’s best and most fun country albums.
Best New Artist
Olivia Dean
KATSEYE
The Mariàs – Should Win
Addison Rae
sombr
Leon Thomas – Will Win
Alex Warren
Lola Young
For those keeping tabs, this is now the third straight year that the mainstream media has insisted Megan Moroney was a frontrunner for this award, only for her to be shunned entirely by voters with taste and functioning ears. Ella Langley’s and Zach Top’s absences are more surprising, though it’s been hard for country acts in the General Field over the last few years.
Thomas’ nod for Album of the Year makes him the slightest of favorites here. History says Olivia Dean is probably the safest bet, but she feels like she’s going to be more of a story for next year’s awards. sombr also has a pretty devoted fanbase, even though his music is very much not for me. Warren would be a true nightmare pick, and only The Mariàs and Thomas are in my lane.
Producer of the Year, Non-Classical
Dan Auerbach – Will Win
Cirkut
Dijon – Should Win
Blake Mills
Sounwave
Honestly, this is just an “anyone but Auerbach” category for me. I’ve gone to bat for his production work and for The Black Keys in the past, but I just can’t abide him or his schtick anymore.
Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical
Amy Allen – Should Win
Edgar Barrera – Will Win
Jessie Jo Dillon
Tobias Jesso, Jr
Laura Veltz
In terms of whose work maps most closely to the General Field nominees and to the individual songs nominated downballot, this is most likely to go to Barrera, Allen, or Veltz. It just seems unlikely that the country voting bloc has enough sway to swing this for Dillon– not a nominee for Country Song, below– in the event of a vote split.
Country & American Roots Music Field
Best Country Solo Performance
Tyler Childers, “Nose On The Grindstone”
Shaboozey, “Good News”
Chris Stapleton, “Bad As I Used To Be”
Zach Top, “I Never Lie” – Should Win
Lainey Wilson, “Somewhere Over Laredo” – Will Win
Surely to God, voters won’t just rubberstamp their ballots for Stapleton to win with such a nothing of a record. Right? Please??? It’s far more likely they’ll do just that on behalf of Wilson as the only woman nominated in the category, even if it does seem like there are rumblings of discontent that she’s been over-rewarded.
As a single and song, “I Never Lie” is still far too much of a pastiche for my liking, but I do think Top performs the hell out of it. He’d get my vote by a hair over the ingratiating Shaboozey single and what’s probably the most conventional song and performance on the Childers album.
Best Country Duo / Group Performance
Miranda Lambert & Chris Stapleton, “A Song to Sing”
Reba McEntire, Miranda Lambert, & Lainey Wilson, “Trailblazer”
Margo Price & Tyler Childers, “Love Me Like You Used To” – Should Win
Shaboozey & Jelly Roll, “Amen” – Will Win
George Strait & Chris Stapleton, “Honky Tonk Hall Of Fame”
Logic says that the various combos of Lambert and Stapleton all cancel each other out; only the Strait & Stapleton collab deserves a spot here anyway. Which leaves a dreadful Shaboozey & Jelly Roll hit to square off against what might be the best Margo Price and Tyler Childers have ever sounded on record. I love this duet, and I’m hoping enough of the popular vote splits away from “Amen” for it to win. But will that happen? Eh.
Best Country Song
“Bitin’ List,” Tyler Childers – Will Win & Should Win
“Good News,” Sean Cook, Collins Obinna Chibueze, Michael Ross Pollack, Sam Elliot Roman, Nevin Sastry, & Jacob Torrey
“I Never Lie,” Carson Chamberlain, Tim Nichols, & Zach Top
“Somewhere Over Laredo,” Andy Albert, Trannie Anderson, Dallas Wilson, & Lainey Wilson
“A Song To Sing,” Jenee Fleenor, Jesse Frasure, Miranda Lambert, & Chris Stapleton
“A Song to Sing” is the most nothing of a song to land a nomination here since Shania’s “Honey I’m Home,” and it’s a nadir for all four of the names attached to it. The rest of the category isn’t much better, frankly, though Childers’ viral hit is at least memorable and as catchy as a bloodborne pathogen.
Best Contemporary Country Album
Beautifully Broken, Jelly Roll
Evangeline vs The Machine, Eric Church
PATTERNS, Kelsea Ballerini
Postcards From Texas, Miranda Lambert
Snipe Hunter, Tyler Childers – Will Win & Should Win
There are some rumblings that Jelly Roll is the likely winner here, but his complete shut out at the recent CMAs tells me that his groundswell of country industry support is, mercifully, starting to dry up. The four mainstream records will split the votes, to the benefit of Snipe Hunter. I still don’t love it, either, but it’s the best album here, at least by a hair over Lambert’s seventh-best record and a solid enough album by Ballerini.
Best Traditional Country Album
Ain’t In It For My Health, Zach Top – Will Win
American Romance, Lukas Nelson
Dollar A Day, Charley Crockett
Hard Headed Woman, Margo Price – Should Win
Oh, What A Beautiful World, Willie Nelson
Quality-wise, I’d argue that the Top and younger Nelson albums are out of their depth, though both are fine enough and would be better winners than, say, Lady [Redacted]’s Own the Night. His nominations in the other country categories suggests Top has the support to win, but he’s not a lock.
Willie’s always a threat at the Grammys, and voters have two chances to recognize him this year; his other nominated album is the superior work, so here’s hoping they go that route. Crockett’s star is on the rise, and he was nominated for the far better of the two records he put out in 2025. Price’s album is the class of this bunch, though. As with Wilson above, there’s a potential advantage to being the only woman nominated, and the album’s “comeback” story could hold some sway.
Best American Roots Performance
Jon Batiste feat. Randy Newman, “LONELY AVENUE”
I’m With Her, “Ancient Light” – Will Win
Jason Isbell, “Crimson And Clay”
Alison Krauss & Union Station, “Richmond On The James”
Mavis Staples, “Beautiful Strangers” – Should Win
Other than the great I’m With Her single, I don’t know that I would have clocked these exact performances as the most likely slate of nominees for this category. In Staples’ case, the best track from her stunning new album actually made the cut; she’d get my vote this year.
Batiste always seems like a threat to win, and Lord knows it’s a fool’s errand to bet against Krauss at the Grammys. But I do think the recent I’m With Her successes at the Americana Music Association awards is likely to carry over here.
Best Americana Performance
Sierra Hull, “Boom” – Should Win
Maggie Rose & Grace Potter, “Poison In My Well”
Mavis Staples, “Godspeed”
Molly Tuttle, “That’s Gonna Leave A Mark” – Will Win
Jesse Welles, “Horses”
In an absolute sense, I’d have nominated Tuttle in either the Country or even Pop fields this year for her terrific foray into modern pop-country. But I do think she’s held in high enough esteem by Grammy voters to win in this category, too.
Staples’ other nominated performance is the better choice for her, and I’d fire Welles out of a cannon into the sun. The Rose & Potter collab is a strong pick here, but I love the effortless cool of Hull’s single. She’d get my vote for this one.
Best American Roots Song
“Ancient Light,” Sarah Jarosz, Aofie O’Donovan, & Sara Watkins
“BIG MONEY,” Jon Batiste, Mike Elizondo, & Steve McEwan
“Foxes In The Snow,” Jason Isbell – Will Win & Should Win
“Middle,” Jesse Welles
“Spitfire,” Sierra Hull
If Isbell’s going to win anything this year, it’s going to be for his songwriting and less for the stripped-down aesthetic of this song’s parent album. By a slim margin, I’d argue he has the best-written song here, over “Ancient Light,” which could certainly run the table through the American Roots field.
Non-zero chance that Welles, whose viral popularity was at a new peak during the prime of voting season, goes four for four, even if his company here highlights how amateur-hour his craft really is.
Best Americana Album
BIG MONEY, Jon Batiste
Bloom, Larkin Poe
Last Leaf On The Tree, Willie Nelson – Should Win
Middle, Jesse Welles
So Long Little Miss Sunshine, Molly Tuttle – Will Win
Nelson’s album is one of the finest of his late-era renaissance and embodies “Americana” in all the best ways. It’s easily the best of these five, though I was also fond of Tuttle’s set. Again, Welles is a looming menace, and Batiste still feels like a threat. And man, that Larkin Poe album was a drag.
Best Bluegrass Album
Arcadia, Alison Krauss & Union Station – Will Win
Carter & Cleveland, Michael Cleveland & Jason Carter
Highway Prayers, Billy Strings
Outrun, The SteelDrivers
A Tip Toe High Wire, Sierra Hull – Should Win
I’m not so foolish as to say that Krauss & Co won’t win for a well-received comeback album that was polished and lovely and as great as their albums always are. I will say that, for as much as I liked Arcadia, I actually liked the albums by The SteelDrivers, Strings, and especially Hull even more. And a hat-tip to the surprise nomination for the solid Carter & Cleveland record, too. As ever, this is one of the year’s strongest categories, top to bottom.
Best Contemporary Blues Album
Breakthrough, Joe Bonamassa
Family, Southern Avenue – Should Win
Paper Doll, Samantha Fish
Preacher’s Kids, Robert Randolph – Will Win
A Tribute to LJK, Eric Gales
This category, in contrast, is kind of a wash outside of the absolute banger of an album by Southern Avenue. The vocals they threw down on that record deserve every award, though Randolph’s name recognition is likely to carry the day.
Best Traditional Blues Album
Ain’t Done With The Blues, Buddy Guy
Look Out Highway, Charlie Musselwhite
One Hour Mama: The Blues Of Victoria Spivey, Maria Muldaur
Room On The Porch, Taj Mahal & Keb’ Mo’ – Will Win & Should Win
Young Fashioned Ways, Kenny Wayne Shepherd & Bobby Rush
Another middling category this year, which is a bummer, since the last several years have been pretty fantastic for blues music. Taj Mahal & Keb Mo’ had the best of the four albums I heard here; I haven’t listened to a KWS album in I don’t even know how long, and I didn’t love the Guy or Musselwhite or Muldaur sets.
Best Folk Album
Crown Of Roses, Patty Griffin
Foxes In The Snow, Jason Isbell
What Did The Blackbird Say To The Crow, Rhiannon Giddens & Justin Robinson – Should Win
Wild And Clear And Blue, I’m With Her
Underneath The Powerlines: April 24 – September 24, Jesse Welles – Will Win
The beat on Welles is that he is a modern “folk” hero in the traditional sense– which is a bullshit take for a litany of reasons– but I think it’s enough that this is the category where he’s most likely to win. Which is a shame, because he’s up against four of the year’s strongest albums– the Giddens & Robinson, I’m With Her, and Griffin sets, especially– that all wholly outclass his work. But the haircut who’s been credited for brining “protest” music to TikTok is going to get his coronation here.
The 68th Grammy Awards will be announced on Sunday, February 1, 2026, in a ceremony hosted by Trevor Noah and airing on See BS and streaming on Paramount+.
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