CMA Forecast: Entertainer of the Year

In the final edition of CMA Forecast, I’m taking a look at the Entertainer of the Year category.   Will this be the year that some new faces are in the running for the first time?   A major shake-up is unlikely, but I suspect that for the first time since 2001, this isn’t going to be an all-boy’s club.

ENTERTAINER OF THE YEAR

Certain to Be Nominated:

Kenny Chesney
As the reigning champ and country music’s biggest box office draw, his nomination is a given.   The real question is whether he’ll tie Alabama and Alan Jackson for second place in total wins with a third victory in four years.

Likely to Be Nominated:

Brad Paisley
I’ve been saying it all year long, and I believe it now more than ever: 2007 will be the year where Brad Paisley takes home some big awards.  I do believe he’s the front-runner for Male Vocalist and Album, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him play spoiler and take home Entertainer over Chesney and Rascal Flatts.

Rascal Flatts
They have the numbers at retail, the plays at radio and the sales at the box office to make them a given for an Entertainer nomination.   But their public whining has brought attention to the fact that they aren’t awards favorites.  Sure, they’ve picked up a lot of ACM’s, but they’ve been limited to the Vocal Group wins at the CMA’s and have yet to win a Grammy.   Their sales are impressive in comparison to most of the competition, but let’s be honest: Album sales between 4 and 5 million are not record-breaking, eyebrow-raising achievements, and that appears to be their ceiling.    So yes, a nomination is likely, but a victory may be far more elusive.

Carrie Underwood
Too soon?  I’d normally say yes.  But may I remind you of the Dixie Chicks?  They were nominated in 1999 while they were still working their first album and had yet to headline a tour.   What they did have on their side was overwhelming enthusiasm from all corners of the music industry.  Underwood is winning big awards at every show including the Grammys, just like the Chicks were doing back in the late nineties.

Back then, the industry was hungry for a big act that embraced tradition while the pop crossover era was reaching a fever pitch, and the Dixie Chicks were enthusiastically championed as the genre’s saviors because they met that need.  Today, the country music industry is desperately hoping for a superstar act that can appeal to wide demographics and sell records like the superstars of the boom years.  With a 6x platinum debut, Underwood has the top-selling country album of the entire century.   She’s everything the industry has been praying for, and they’re going to embrace her as warmly and tightly as they can.   An Entertainer nod is the only way to up the ante from last year, and the voters just might give it to her.

Keith Urban
I sense that the final slot is a toss-up between the 2005 winner and the hosts for the past three years.    Urban has a big-selling album and a great year at radio on his side, plus widespread respect for his talents as a musician.   As I’ve said in previous posts, how deep his support still is among the industry will be revealed by this upcoming ballot.   I think he’ll still be in the race, but it’s not a given.

Brooks & Dunn
Nor is a nomination for this duo, even though they won big last year and they host the show.   They were nominated five times in the last six years, but they didn’t make the cut in 2005, and they haven’t put out a new album since 2005.   If they make the cut, it will be over more deserving acts this time around.   And let’s be honest: it wouldn’t be the first time these guys were chosen over stronger competition…

Tim McGraw
Just ask this guy.   How he failed to secure a nomination in this category after having the year’s biggest tour remains a mystery, and I’m sad to say that I believe that fate will be repeated this year, despite another big year at the box office and a new album that is selling at a solid rate.   I hold out hope that “If You’re Reading This” reminded voters of what a deep and essential artist Tim McGraw is, but I’m not confident that hope is justified.

George Strait
He hasn’t been nominated since 2002, so a nomination this year would be an unexpected surprise.   As I’ve written in the other categories, I suspect that there is going to be a lot of Strait sentiment this year.   A nomination here would indicate that it’s deep enough to score him some wins this fall.
Final Prediction:

Entertainer of the Year

  • Kenny Chesney
  • Brad Paisley
  • Rascal Flatts
  • Carrie Underwood
  • Keith Urban

46 Comments

  1. Yeah right…Carrie Underwood!? NOOOOO!!!

    Did she even tour!?

    Martina McBride is the #1 Top Country Female Tour of 2007…put her in there!

  2. Oh come on, what a joke. Martina McBride not even nominated? She deserves to win! Carrie Underwood is the biggest joke of all.

  3. I know that this must’ve ended up on a Martina McBride fan club board or something, so let me say to all of you that I do agree that Martina would be a good choice for an Entertainer nominee. However, these are predictions, not personal preferences. She hasn’t been nominated for it before and I don’t see a particular reason she’d break through this year. If Martina didn’t break through when she was selling multi-platinum, I can’t imagine her getting the nod now.

    Attacking Carrie Underwood as “the biggest joke of all” makes you, Heidi, look very petty. Why cut down another’s success to build up your own favorite artist? I expect that from the fans of some artists, but Martina McBride is one of the classiest and most dignified performers in contemporary country music. This line of attack is beneath her, and it should be beneath her fans.

  4. WHAT THE S*** THAT IS NOT RIGHT MARTINA NOT EVEN BEING NOMINATED THAT MAKES ME MAD CARRIE HASNT HAD AS many sold out shows this year is Martina she was the #1 in country music that is a completely “JOKE”
    Pisses me off too.
    I guess since Carrie has been nominated in everything else and won she needs to be in the male vocalist and duo and group too.I can’t stand Carrie im sorry but im tired of her music it all sounds alike……
    Martina is my favorite but come on people arent yall tired of Carrie yet..
    She will soon dwendle like everyone does…Like Martina,Reba,Dolly,Sara Evans,Gretchen,Faith and Shania all of them have dwendled none of them have really made a comeback but Martina but I’m tired of Carrie………………………

  5. the industry can shove it cause they dont do nominations right even though Martina is my favorite she hasnt done alot like Carrie the past years but this year she has with the new cd and #1 country female artist in concerts is awesome i think that that means for her to be nominated for EOTY more she is an awesome entertainer more so than most women now days……………

  6. As a long time fan of Country music I can definitely see why Carie should be nominated and should win this award. It is rare for a female to break the Top 10 on the singles chart let alone have all four of her songs go to #1 and most of them for many weeks. Carrie has sold 6 million albums without the help of a major headlining tour and she has been successful on the pop charts. I will be very surprised if she is not nominated.

    I love Martina, Faith, Reba, and all the other very talented women of country music, but none of them can match the success Carrie has had in the past two years. Hell, I bet some of the men wish they could have some of her success.

  7. WHile it pisses me off royally to here you guys say Carrie Underwood sucks…I actually have to agree that Martina is the #1 best female for the catagory and touring.

    Carrie is one of countries most talented women…with a voice hitting ranges only Martina could ever hit before her, so to say she’s a joke is complete bullshit. Besides that point Carrie is a more successful radio entertainer than martina right now, while Martina is deffinatly shooting well over Carrie. Martina does deserve it, but I think Carrie success on radio may cloud tha fact in the voters minds. Carrie doesn’t deserve it yet, when she headlines her own tour she may just hit those marks but until then Martina is well over her in sales of tickets.

    Carrie deserves radio based nominations more than this. Martina deserves this from years past as well as her current success.

  8. Entertainer of the Year shuld be based on a lot more than radio airplay and sales. I like Carrie Underwood but she has a tremendous amount yet to learn about entertaining. I haven’t seen Martina live but I’m sure she’s a thorough going professional, as is George Strait but for the entire package it has to be Brad Paisley this year

  9. I agree with some of your predictions and disagree with some. I think George Strait should get a nod this year. He toured earlier in the year and had plenty of sold out shows, plus he puts on an amazing show.
    I love Carrie but it is extremely too soon to give her a nod in the EOTY category. She has yet to headline her own tour and has only played a few dates this year.
    My prediction is that the same people will be nominated but instead of Carrie…I’ll put George in there.
    As for a winner, George, Keith, or Brad are definately all deserving of it and I would choose any one of those three, but the award will most likely go to Kenny.

  10. Libby,

    Just because he hasn’t been nominated since 2004. Turnover at the CMA’s is not very common. I would be pleasantly surprised by a nomination, but I don’t expect it to happen. I really do think that Tim is handicapped by being on Curb records, which has a smaller voting bloc.

  11. It’s too bad that Martina fans feel the need to attack an artist who has never shied away from praising Martina. I’ve noticed that the complaining is increasing. I don’t go to Martina’s fan board anymore because anytime Carrie has any success she gets bashed. The success may not even have anything to do with Martina. I don’t want their opinions to sway my high opinion of Martina or her music. Because she really is awesome.

    Carrie may not have had the tour success due to the fact that she chose to focus on her second album. Since the album could make or break her, I think she did the right thing. She does however have everything else: multi-platinum album, #1 singles, a huge pop crossover, and an itunes record for ISBY. That doesn’t include all her many television appearances, magazine spreads, or awards. The only thing she’s lacking is the tour.

    I guess if artists have just OK record sales and radio singles but have a high selling concert they should win. Entertainer of the year shouldn’t be only about concert sales. If you think about the number of fans these artists have the concert goers are actually pretty small. I saw Martina this summer and Carrie with Brad last fall, but the only person I know who also saw them was the person I went with. I do however know tons of people who are fans of them. They just don’t go to concerts.

    BTW my vote for entertainer is Brad. He is just the full package highly praised album, multiple number ones, great musician, and an entertaining concert all during the eligibility year. I’m not talking about ticket sales I’m talking about the actual entertainment value of the concert. I also didn’t have to worry about getting hit by flying beer bottles which is a plus.

  12. Why should’nt carrie be nominated EOTY. She’s earned it. The award is for
    all around success. The only thing she hasn’t done is headline a big tour. She’s blown everyone else away with her success. I don’t think it’s right to start bashing someone because they have become so successful, whether you like her or not.
    I love Martina, but I don’t think she has a shot, not this year anyway. My vote is for Brad or Carrie.

  13. As a huge Carrie fan, I would love to see her win EOTY. However, from a more critical standpoint, I would have to say that she isn’t quite ready to win it yet. Carrie definitely has the sales and radio airplay needed for EOTY, but she has never headlined her own tour which is a huge part of this award. You could argue that while she has not headlined her own tour, she has opened for Kenny Chesney and Brad Paisley, and has done many of her own shows that were not part of a full tour. And from these performances, she has become known as an impeccable live performer. But she still has not proven that she can headline a successful tour, even though there is no doubt in my mind that she could. I think that nominating her this year would not be a bad idea, just to acknowledge that she is one of, if not the biggest thing going in country music right now. But I think that she shouldn’t get the award until after she headlines her own tour, and with her new album coming out that could happen soon. This year, my critical vote goes to Brad, but my fan vote goes to Carrie.

  14. I am a huge Carrie fan- and would love her to win ETOTY at some point. However- I think KEnny Rascal Flats or even Brad might win this year, and they deserve to. I think Carrie should get a nomination– she deserves it— but I think she would agree that since she didn’t tour that much this year, due to working on her new album, she will be a better candidate next year when she goes full throttle on her 2008 tour. In answer to the bashers though- I am not nor ever will be sick of Carrie. She is an amazing artist, an a wonderful person who deserves everything good that is happening. I also love Martina, and would love to see her get a nomination too- as I am tired of the men dominating this category year after year. Some of you ladies should really be supporting female artists more, and not resenting them or getting jealous. Women need to stick together and support each other’s successes….I love martina AND Carrie-and would be happy if either won or got a nomination. so please stop the hate people- Carrie is a nice person and a deserving candidate….but I agree this is not the year she should win ETOTY.

  15. I expect Brad to win it, but Carrie deserves a nomination. How can anyone having 4 #1 singles and 6 million in sales not get nominated?

  16. Amen Tsharky!

    There are so many talented female artists in country music! The genre has always favored the guys because the labels and the DJs think women only want to listen to men sing and that needs to change! We all should be about supporting talent!

  17. I think Carrie should get at a minimum a nod for EOTY. Entertainer of the Year encompasses many things and shouldn’t be primarily tied to the headliner tour. Carrie has proven herself many times over. She pulls in a tremendous crowd and/or audience wherever she goes. Television ratings have had enourmas success when Carrie is appearing and IMO should be counted in same category has a headliner tour. I bet you that any of the others could not do the same. Her music is loved by folks from all genres. Also consider the Idol Gives Back promotion where her song ISBY was posted on Itunes and ran up the charts. She went to IRAQ to provide a concert to the troups. Give me a break guys. She’s done everything that needs to be done regardless of how new she is. Faith is riding Tim’s coat tails. I’m sick of hearing Kenney, Strait nor Urban have done that much. The only other contender I think is worthy is Brad. Either Brad or Carrie deserve to win hands down.

  18. Carrie will get nominated, but winning the biggest award of the night may be tough! However she does deserve it. I really like Martina as well, I am suprised she is not predicted to be nominated! Once again people this is just a prediction…. but I love it! Good Luck Carrie!

  19. I love Martina and would love to see her nominated, it’s a shame she won’t be. I can see why Carrie would be, she’s popular at the moment, and is selling like hotcakes!

  20. When you look at the big picture there is ONLY ONE that should get Entertainer this year and that is TIM MCGRAW.

    If he fails to get a nod again this year like so many other years and fails to win the industry should HANG their head in shame. There is NO one that did more across the board than Tim Mcgraw. The description INCLUDES radio play, album sales, touring, TV appearances, MOVIES, and so much more.

    It is a crime that this guy has ONLY WON ONE Entertainer award his WHOLE career and NONE from he ACM’s. He has been left off the ballot so many times the last 4-5 years of not only Enteretainer, Male but everything.

    LETS SEE WHAT TIM HAS DONE TO EARN THE ENTERTAINER AWARD:

    The time frame for the CMA’s is July 1st 2006 through June 30th 2007.

    Keep in mind if you read the description for Entertainer it INCLUDES more than touring, it includes sales, radio play, press, TV, movies.

    Last year he was part of the #1 country tour in history that was seen by over a million fans and was given an award for Pollstar Tour of the Year the last time that happen in country was 1993 with Garth. People like to mention Kenny, if you look at the year end charts Kenny’s tour was ONLY seen by a little over 34,000 more people BUT had over 150,000 more seats avaliable for sell.

    Tim was the #1 best selling male artist last year in country music, the #6th overall in all of music for male, females or groups. Kenny, Alan, Toby, George or Brad were not in that group AND NEITHER WAS MARTINA. In fact when Billboard did their issue that counted sales, radio play and tours Tim was #1 for country music.

    Tim is the ONLY country artist too make Forbes prestigious Top 100 Celebrity list that counts not only money earned but press, TV exposure and how many times their name is mention in the press or TV.

    Tim had a starring role in a movie during that time frame that grossed 25 million at the box office, Also he is part of a movie with Jamie Foxx that comes out September 28th.

    Tim got a Star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

    Tim’s 2000 Greatest Hits was the #1 Country Catalog album where it has been #1 every year since moving to the catalog chart since 2002 except one year. in FACT his SEVEN YEAR ALBUM IS SELLING OVER 8,000 A WEEK AND WAS THE 9TH BEST SELLING ALBUM IN ALL OF COUNTRY A FEW WEEKS AND THE #14 LAST WEEK. His 7 year old album is selling better than Kenny’s two year album each week and better than Martina’s 5 month album

    At the halfway mark this year Tim is the BEST SELLING artist in all of country music and has the MOST radio airplay of anybody in country music this year. He has the only album in country music released in 2007 that has actually sold OVER a million. He has the highest first week sales in country music so far this year.

    He has two songs right now in the top 14 country singles chart, Has the #1 Country song on ITunes.

    His 2000 GH is the #1 Country Catalog album and in the Top 3 of POP catalog albums in all of music. In fact Tim has THREE albums by sales in the Billboard Top 100 and NO artixt can say tha IN ANY GENRE. By sales he has THREE albums in the Top 14 of the Country album chart. Let it Go is #3, and his greatest Hits albums are #9 and #12 based on sales.

    So top in touring, top in radio play, top in sales, movies, a show stopping peformance on the ACM’s that blew everyone else out of the water. It would be a disgrace if he didn’t win Entertainer and they would look like fools after all he has done, more than any other artist.. Its time for them to give TIM what he earned these last couple years AND STOP SNUBBING HIM, THEY WILL LOOK LIKE FOOLS IF HE DOESN’T GET WHAT HE HAS EARNED AND DESERVED THE LAST COUPLE YEARS..

  21. Martina deserves a nod but NOT a win not when you compare her stats to what Tim has doone, Martina has had TV appearances but so has many others including Tim, Kenny, and others. Her tour was a smaller tour with mostly 6,000-7000 venues not the 20,000 venues the other artist have had, Even with the smaller venues she was NOT selling out, rarely did I see her tour on the top boxoffice numbers for the week.

    Her album has to be a total dissappointment , look how much she has been on TV but still in almost 5 months her album has NOT even sold 500,000. That is sad so low of sales with ALL that exposure, what does that say for her, she is NOT connectiong it seems or her songs aren’t for some reason.

    Her album was #164 on Billboard Top 200 and not even in the Top 15 of the Country Chart last week and in fact Tim HAD THREE ALBUMS in the Billboard Top 100 that sold more than Martina’s album and one of them IS SEVEN YEARS OLD.

    She is just not connecting with her songs to her core country base that brought her to the table years and years ago. Maybe she should go back and look at her Evolution album and see what she did right on that album, other than her GH album it is her best selling country and IMO her best when she was at the top in her quality. Timeless was a great album but then she went and did the POP thing again with her latest. So if I was giving her advice go listen to Evolution and them maybe you can be a top seller again.

  22. Carrie may actually end up nominated if the voters remember the touring she did from July to November of last year. It falls under the eligibility period (July 1 2006 to June 30th 2007). She did have many headlining dates mixed in with the Kenny and Brad opening slots. She had 100+ dates from June to November last year. Plus any touring done after June 30th this year shouldn’t count for any of the artists. Add her touring with all her other accomplishments and Kevin may be right in his prediction.

  23. I was just thinking along the same lines as Staci. Im not sure if thats something voters will consider or not. But even if she just gets the nomination (not really expecting her to take that award yet) it will be a great acomplishment at the end of the day.

  24. When you look at the big picture there is ONLY ONE that should get Entertainer this year and that is TIM MCGRAW.

    If he fails to get a nod again this year like so many other years and fails to win the industry should HANG their head in shame. There is NO one that did more across the board than Tim Mcgraw. The description INCLUDES radio play, album sales, touring, TV appearances, MOVIES, and so much more.

    It is a crime that this guy has ONLY WON ONE Entertainer award his WHOLE career and NONE from he ACM’s. He has been left off the ballot so many times the last 4-5 years of not only Enteretainer, Male but everything.

    LETS SEE WHAT TIM HAS DONE TO EARN THE ENTERTAINER AWARD:

    The time frame for the CMA’s is July 1st 2006 through June 30th 2007.

    Keep in mind if you read the description for Entertainer it INCLUDES more than touring, it includes sales, radio play, press, TV, movies.

    Last year he was part of the #1 country tour in history that was seen by over a million fans and was given an award for Pollstar Tour of the Year the last time that happen in country was 1993 with Garth. People like to mention Kenny, if you look at the year end charts Kenny’s tour was ONLY seen by a little over 34,000 more people BUT had over 150,000 more seats avaliable for sell.

    Tim was the #1 best selling male artist last year in country music, the #6th overall in all of music for male, females or groups. Kenny, Alan, Toby, George or Brad were not in that group AND NEITHER WAS MARTINA. In fact when Billboard did their issue that counted sales, radio play and tours Tim was #1 for country music.

    Tim is the ONLY country artist too make Forbes prestigious Top 100 Celebrity list that counts not only money earned but press, TV exposure and how many times their name is mention in the press or TV.

    Tim had a starring role in a movie during that time frame that grossed 25 million at the box office, Also he is part of a movie with Jamie Foxx that comes out September 28th.

    Tim got a Star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame.

    Tim’s 2000 Greatest Hits was the #1 Country Catalog album where it has been #1 every year since moving to the catalog chart since 2002 except one year. in FACT his SEVEN YEAR ALBUM IS SELLING OVER 8,000 A WEEK AND WAS THE 9TH BEST SELLING ALBUM IN ALL OF COUNTRY A FEW WEEKS AND THE #14 LAST WEEK. His 7 year old album is selling better than Kenny’s two year album each week and better than Martina’s 5 month album

    At the halfway mark this year Tim is the BEST SELLING artist in all of country music and has the MOST radio airplay of anybody in country music this year. He has the only album in country music released in 2007 that has actually sold OVER a million. He has the highest first week sales in country music so far this year.

    He has two songs right now in the top 14 country singles chart, Has the #1 Country song on ITunes.

    His 2000 GH is the #1 Country Catalog album and in the Top 3 of POP catalog albums in all of music. In fact Tim has THREE albums by sales in the Billboard Top 100 and NO artixt can say tha IN ANY GENRE. By sales he has THREE albums in the Top 14 of the Country album chart. Let it Go is #3, and his greatest Hits albums are #9 and #12 based on sales.

    So top in touring, top in radio play, top in sales, movies, a show stopping peformance on the ACM’s that blew everyone else out of the water. It would be a disgrace if he didn’t win Entertainer and they would look like fools after all he has done, more than any other artist.. Its time for them to give TIM what he earned these last couple years AND STOP SNUBBING HIM, THEY WILL LOOK LIKE FOOLS IF HE DOESN’T GET WHAT HE HAS EARNED AND DESERVED THE LAST COUPLE YEARS..

  25. I think Keith Urban deserves this. He is one of the most exciting persons on the guitar maybe forever. He gets right into his audiences. The band mambers are also wonderful.

    Chris on drums with Kieth on guitar in I told U so is amazing the beats,together are
    amazing………………………………..totally, the video is soulful and full of art.

  26. Word of advice for CMA members: Don’t nominate country singers just because they have sold millions of records and tour like mad. Nominate them because they are truly worthy of this EOTY CMA honor.

    And this leaves only one name who should take home this award: Mr. George Strait.

  27. It’s unfortunate that Keith Urban has had personal struggles to overcome; but the EOTY is one category Keith should not be included in.

    While other country singers were working hard to spread country music around and entertain their fans, Keith was in rehab trying to clean himself up.

    No personal attack on Keith’s problem intended, and I wish him the best. But if you are sincere about your music and your loyalty to your fans, you have to be 100% committed.

  28. Keith Urban is definitely the best entertainer out of the ones listed in my opinion, but if he isn’t nominated then I do not care who gets it as long as they don’t just give it to Kenny Chesney because he fills stadiums and throws a huge drunkfest. I really would love to see Martina nominated too or Carrie, they are both talented and classy. I just honestly believe the industry feels they owe it to Kenny for some reason and I hope they elect the person that meets the right criteria. I wanted to make a comment that I heard the DJs on my country station say. They were discussing that if they were taking a new country fan to a concert, whose would it be……..they all agreed it would be to a Keith Urban concert.

  29. My guess is Brad – I was never a huge fan of his until about a year ago. He’s put out some AMAZING music this year, and he really is a fabulous entertainer. Of course, I’ll be rooting for my boys Rascal Flatts, and I would really love for Carrie to at least be nominated.

    Staci, I completely agree with what you said. Carrie has praised Martina on so many different occasions – and not just for her music. As a fan of both artists, I can only hope I carry myself with as much grace as they do. What I’ve seen on this board and on others is just sad.

  30. The facts don’t lie NO one deserves it more than Tim McGrtaw. Keith has had an off year I see his boxscores he doesn’t even sellout his concerts, His album is a flop compared to his last one not only in sales but with three songs hasn’t even had a #1. He won;t even be in the Top 4 country tours of the year and maybe not even top 5.

    Heck Tim’s SEVEN YEAR old Greatest Hits album is selling more than Keith’s album every week.

  31. From the reviews I’ve read, Keith Urban puts on a better show than Tim McGraw. One interviewer said he would have liked Tim’s show ok had he not just been to see Keith Urban. However, Debbie, since I believe you will go into cardiac arrest if Tim doesn’t win, maybe he will! You definitely need to get a life.

  32. I think Kenny should win. He has the best concert ever. I hate CARRIE AND KEITH their both gross and stupid. Kenny has been more better than anyone. If he does win I think they’ll probly will be a lot of fighting. I don’t think Carrie has been in the music enough ye. Kenny was on the road for 13 years before he got his first one. I think they should make her wait to

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