2024 Grammy Awards: Predictions and Personal Picks

Here’s who will win, and who should win, at this year’s Grammy Awards.

GENERAL FIELD

Record of the Year

Jon Batiste, “Worship”

Boygenius, “Not Strong Enough”

Miley Cyrus, “Flowers”

Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?”  

Victoria Monet, “On My Mama”

Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire”

Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” 

SZA, “Kill Bill” 

Eilish has the track record in this category, and she’s likely helped by the ongoing and exhausting discourse around Barbie’s perceived Oscar snubs. I do wonder if the potential vote-splitting among the women nominated– particularly among Cyrus, Swift, and Rodrigo with the pop contingent– could clear a path for a Batiste upset, though: Of these singles, who else are NARAS’ many, many Olds going to vote for? 

Will Win: Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?”

Should Win: SZA, “Kill Bill”

 

Album of the Year

Jon Batiste, World Music Radio 

Boygenius, The Record

Miley Cyrus, Endless Summer Vacation

Lana Del Rey, Did You Know There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd

Janelle Monae, The Age of Pleasure

Olivia Rodrigo, GUTS

Taylor Swift, Midnights

SZA, SOS 

Cynically, I think the vote-split I mentioned in Record Of The Year is even more likely in this category, especially since Batiste has won this prize before. SZA would be my pick by a hair over Boygenius, and I do think she had enough of a commercial and critical balance to have a shot at this one. This is Swift’s least-likely category on the ballot this year based upon recency of previous wins, though I do think she’ll eventually get a fourth Album Of The Year victory someday.

Will Win: Jon Batiste, World Music Radio

Should Win: SZA, SOS 

 

Song of the Year

“A&W” – Jack Antonoff, Lana Del Rey, and Sam Dew

“Anti-Hero” – Jack Antonoff and Taylor Swift 

“Butterfly” – Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson 

“Dance the Night” – Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson, and Andrew Wyatt

“Flowers” – Miley Cyrus, Gregory Aldae Hein, and Michael Pollack

“Kill Bill” – Rob Bisel, Carter Lang, and Solana Rowe

“Vampire” – Daniel Nigro and Olivia Rodrigo

“What Was I Made For?” – Billie Eilish O’Connell and Finneas O’Connell

“It’s me, hi / I’m the problem, it’s me,” is the song lyric that’s had the broadest cultural traction in a generation, and that’s a testament to Swift’s songwriting skill. Nevermind that the verses of “Anti-Hero” are some of her most over-written. Eilish seems like a strong possibility here, too, given her song’s juggernaut run through the film awards season, but the way this ballot shook out tells me we’re in for a repeat of last year’s Bonnie Raitt upset.

Will Win: “Butterfly” – Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson

Should Win: “Anti-Hero” – Jack Antonoff and Taylor Swift 

 

Best New Artist

Gracie Abrams

Fred Again

Ice Spice

Jelly Roll

Coco Jones

Noah Kahan

Victoria Monet 

The War and Treaty 

Prevailing wisdom is that, as the only act here with other general field nominations, Monet is the frontrunner. I’d be more confident in this pick if not for the category’s historic bias against R&B artists. Ice Spice is the most popular performer here, but there’s no way NARAS is giving this to someone whose latest single is titled, “Think U The Shit (Fart).” I do think that, on talent and reputation alone, The War & Treaty could pull a well-deserved upset if the Americana bloc rallies around them, rather than around another possible winner, Noah Kahan.

Will Win: Victoria Monet

Should Win: The War and Treaty

 

Producer of the Year, Non-Classical

Jack Antonoff 

Dernst “D’Mile” Emile II

Hit-Boy

Metro Boomin

Daniel Nigro

I’ll abstain from a “should win” pick for not having enough familiarity with all of these producers. That won’t stop actual voters from giving this to Antonoff on name recognition alone.

Will Win: Jack Antonoff

 

Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical

Edgar Barrera

Jessie Jo Dillon

Shane McAnally 

Theron Thomas

Justin Trainer

It’s interesting that there are 20 different songwriters nominated for Song Of The Year, and these five aren’t among them. Would not be opposed to seeing a McAnally win for his years of solid work (and for Shucked). None of these nominees have their name attached to a particularly big hit this year, either, so it’s hard to say who’ll actually win. Maybe McAnally really does pull this one off.

Will Win: Shane McAnally

Should Win: Shane McAnally 

 

COUNTRY

Best Country Solo Performance

Tyler Childers, “In Your Love” 

Brandy Clark, “Buried”

Luke Combs, “Fast Car”

Dolly Parton, “The Last Thing On My Mind”

We know voters aren’t afraid to give this category to a veteran artist nominated for an album track, so I won’t be stunned by a Parton win. And it’s a fantastic performance, too. But we’re still in an era in which it seems foolhardy to bet against Stapleton at the Grammys, and “White Horse” was a big hit for him throughout the eligibility period. I’d give my vote to Childers, though, whose phrasing on “In Your Love” is just extraordinary.

Will Win: Chris Stapleton, “White Horse”

Should Win: Tyler Childers, “In Your Love”

 

Best Country Duo/Group Performance

Dierks Bentley featuring Billy Strings, “High Note” 

Brothers Osborne, “Nobody’s Nobody”  

Zach Bryan featuring Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything”

Vince Gill and Paul Franklin, “Kissing Your Picture (is So Cold)”

Jelly Roll with Lainey Wilson, “Save Me”

Carly Pearce featuring Chris Stapleton, “We Don’t Fight Anymore”

As above: If Gill could win the solo category with “When My Amy Prays” a couple of years ago, there’s no reason to think he isn’t a threat here for a very good collab with Paul Franklin. And I do think some pundits are overestimating how Zach Bryan’s popularity– which skews overwhelmingly into Gen-Z and not widely beyond that demo– will translate into actual wins. A conservative, low-confidence pick that BrOs will repeat for a decent enough sort-of hit, while my favorite of these nominees is actually the Dierks Bentley & Billy Strings track that has zero chance to win.

Will Win: Brothers Osborne, “Nobody’s Nobody”

Should Win: Dierks Bentley featuring Billy Strings, “High Note”

 

Best Country Song

“Buried” – Brandy Clark and Jessie Jo Dillon

“I Remember Everything” – Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves

“In Your Love” – Tyler Childers and Geno Seale 

“Last Night” – John Byron, Ashley Gorley, Jacob Kasher Hindlin, and Ryan Vojtesak

“White Horse” – Chris Stapleton and Dan Wilson

Will Win: “In Your Love” – Tyler Childers and Geno Seale

Should Win: “In Your Love” – Tyler Childers and Geno Seale

But for the fact that, despite a slew of nominations over the years, she’s never actually won a Grammy, I’d be inclined to give Clark’s brilliant song the edge here. But I think this is Childers’ most likely win of the year, and I think that’s richly deserved. 

The elephant in the room is Wallen’s massive crossover hit. The Grammys aren’t above giving country field awards to deeply shitty pop records– ayo, Lady [Redacted]!– and this would allow them to recognize one such behemoth without having to reward the still-problematic artist who somehow couldn’t find a way to shoehorn himself in as a sixth songwriter. It could win. 

 

Best Country Album

Kelsea Ballerini, Rolling Up the Welcome Mat

Brothers Osborne, Brothers Osborne

Zach Bryan, Zach Bryan 

Tyler Childers, Rustin’ in the Rain 

Lainey Wilson, Bell Bottom Country

Will Win: Zach Bryan, Zach Bryan

Should Win: Tyler Childers, Rustin’ in the Rain

I think Childers’ album is the best of these five by a pretty significant degree, but it’s also not his best album by an also significant degree. So part of me would consider voting for Ballerini’s moody divorce record, which is her best overall work today and is quite good on its own merits. I didn’t love the BrOs album– it’s fine, and they could win on reputation– or the Wilson album that’s been anointed by the ACMs and CMAs despite its including a dead-serious cover of 4 Non-Blondes. That leaves Bryan, who I think will be recognized here for his overall impact and for his putting out an album that suggests he might be learning how to self-edit.

 

AMERICAN ROOTS MUSIC

 

Best American Roots Performance

Jon Batiste, “Butterfly”

The Blind Boys of Alabama, “Heaven Help Us All”

Madison Cunningham, “Inventing the Wheel” 

Rhiannon Giddens, “You Louisiana Man”

Allison Russell, “Eve Was Black”  

Last year, Grammy voters proved that they’re the only people in the world who are all-in on Madison Cunningham, for reasons that I cannot fathom beyond a determined competence. So I assume the one white woman nominated will win over the four black artists, and those optics are still very much what they are for Americana in 2024. I’d give this to the best track from Russell’s latest magnum opus, by just a hair over one of my less-loved tracks on Giddens’ brilliant album.

Will Win: Madison Cunningham, “Inventing the Wheel”

Should Win: Allison Russell, “Eve Was Black” 

 

Best Americana Performance

The Blind Boys of Alabama, “Friendship”

Tyler Childers, “Help Me Make it Through the Night”

Brandy Clark featuring Brandi Carlile, “Dear Insecurity”  

Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit, “King of Oklahoma”

Allison Russell, “The Returner”

The overlap between the previous category and this one should tell NARAS something about what they’re doing, but it won’t. I’ve already said “Dear Insecurity” might be the weakest song Clark’s ever cut, but I also know that’s a contrarian view, and this category is the most likely to mark her first Grammy win. I’d go for Isbell’s riveting “King Of Oklahoma” performance over the great title track from Russell’s album. Childers’ nomination in this category is just silly.

Will Win: Brandy Clark featuring Brandi Carlile, “Dear Insecurity”

Should Win: Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit, “King of Oklahoma”

 

Best American Roots Song

“Blank Page” – Michael Trotter Jr. and Tanya Trotter

“California Sober” – Aaron Allen, William Apostol, and Jon Weisberger

“Cast Iron Skillet” – Jason Isbell 

“”Dear Insecurity” – Brandy Clark and Michael Pollack

The Returner” – Drew Lindsay, JT Nero, and Allison Russell

As in the previous category, I think Clark’s the likely victor in a category that features far, far superior work from Isbell and Russell. The War & Treaty song is terrific, too, and “California Sober” made our year-end singles round-up. So, really, there are four better choices that voters could make, rather than the one that they will.

Will Win: “Dear Insecurity” – Brandy Clark and Michael Pollack

Should Win: “Cast Iron Skillet” – Jason Isbell

 

Best Americana Album

Brandy Clark, Brandy Clark 

Rodney Crowell, The Chicago Sessions

Rhiannon Giddens, You’re the One 

Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit, Weathervanes

Allison Russell, The Returner

I hate hate hate hate hate hate hate genre gatekeeping, but I really don’t think Russell’s album makes sense as “Americana.” It’s a soul record through-and-through; it was one of 2023’s best albums, for sure, and I won’t be mad if she wins this. I just think it’s a work that would be better recognized elsewhere on the ballot. Giddens’ masterwork of interpretive singing would get my vote, just ahead of Isbell’s return to form. But I think the Carlile effect will swing this in Clark’s favor.

Will Win: Brandy Clark, Brandy Clark

Should Win: Rhiannon Giddens, You’re the One

 

Best Bluegrass Album

Sam Bush, Radio John: The Songs of John Hartford

Michael Cleveland, Lovin’ of the Game

Mighty Poplar, Mighty Poplar

Willie Nelson, Bluegrass 

Billy Strings, Me/and/Dad

Molly Tuttle & Golden Highway, City of Gold 

I think Tuttle will consolidate her previous Grammy love with a win here for a very good album. I’m partial to Nelson’s first official bluegrass record and to Strings’ terrific set, but this line-up is stacked. Any of the five would be a worthy winner.

Will Win: Molly Tuttle & Golden Highway, City of Gold

Should Win: Willie Nelson, Bluegrass 

 

Best Folk Album

Dom Flemons, Traveling Wildfire

The Milk Cartons, I Only See the Moon

Joni Mitchell, Joni Mitchell at Newport 

Nickel Creek, Celebrants 

Old Crow Medicine Show, Jubilee

Paul Simon, Seven Psalms

Rufus Wainwright, Folkocracy

I really didn’t care for The Milk Carton Kids’ or Paul Simon’s albums, and I found the Flemons, OCMS, and Wainwright sets all uneven. Nickel Creek’s surprise new album was the best of this lot, but they’ll lose to the recording of Mitchell’s stage comeback. That she’s going to be performing on the Grammy telecast signals this as a done deal.

Will Win: Joni Mitchell, Joni Mitchell at Newport

Should Win: Nickel Creek, Celebrants