The Country Music Association will hand out their 60th slate of trophies on Tuesday, November 18, but not without a significant amount of controversy and Stepping In It in advance of this year’s show.
Those inclined to follow these things– self included, so no judgment there– are likely already familiar with the social media brouhaha related to Sammy Kershaw’s request to walk the red carpet alongside his wife and the CMAs’ denial of said request and redirection that Kershaw was welcome to pay for a ticket for the show like any ol’ plebeian without a #1 single or gold record to their credit.
While this kind of thing happens all the time in an industry that pays a lot of lip service to respecting its veteran acts while paying them very little in the way of actual respect, what doesn’t always happen is that the artist on the receiving end of an industry slight actually took to social media to air their grievances. Kershaw didn’t mince many words in sharing his side of the story, and a slew of mainstream country starts past and present leapt to his defense.
As such things go, there are few country legends quite as gifted at putting things in the proper context as Pam Tillis, so here’s her own take on this matter in all its glory:
The CMA, for their part, took several days to issue even the most milquetoast of statements– useful only in providing some transparency into what their criteria for selecting red carpet-walkers allegedly are– by which time they’d already lost full control of this narrative and squandered any hope of saving face.
It would be a real PR crisis if institutions like the Country Music Association were capable of feeling shame, which, of course, they are not. And while individuals within those institutions might feel some sense of shame around the mishandling of a public-facing dilemma or the mistreatment of one of its own members, the motivation to jump onto a grenade on behalf of an institution that will never actually show you the same kind of loyalty is simply non-existent. This is business as usual for the CMA, same as it ever was and ever shall be until enough people show the chutzpah to raze the institution to the ground, salt the earth, and rebuild on land unblighted.
Since that’s not happening between now and Tuesday, we have a news cycle of hand-wringing about how the CMA is hypocritical for hosting a show with a tribute to 90s country while simultaneously snubbing a hitmaker of that same era, some predictable It’s About Ethics In Country Music Journalism high-horsing from the expected corners, and a mea culpa that will find Kershaw and his wife on the red carpet, after all.
The tree was already on fire. It’s still on fire today. It will remain on fire after these awards get handed out.
And, not to put too fine a point on it, most of the awards are going to get handed to Ella Langley.
Entertainer of the Year
Luke Combs
Cody Johnson
Ella Langley – Will and Should Win
Chris Stapleton
Lainey Wilson
Perhaps an argument to be made that Johnson could repeat his ACM win from back in the Spring, but Langley’s only gotten more massive since then, while he dropped an album that even most of his die-hards recognize is a step down in quality. No one has been more visible as the face of country music in 2026 than Langley, and she seems to have the full support of the industry.
Personally, I’d have liked to see Kacey Musgraves and her giant disco-ball scrotum and Kristi Noem-burning socials in the running here in what’s been a major comeback year for her. And Kane Brown, which goes without saying every year at this point.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Miranda Lambert
Ella Langley – Will and Should Win
Megan Moroney
Kacey Musgraves
Lainey Wilson
An inevitable coronation for Langley in this category. Which hopefully means the opportunity to win anything with the word “vocalist” in the title has forevermore passed by Moroney. Impossible to fathom this category going in any other direction.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Luke Combs – Should Win
Cody Johnson – Will Win
Chris Stapleton
Zach Top
Stephen Wilson, Jr.
During the eligibility period, Combs released what’s handily the best music of these five men, though I do understand the appeal of Stephen Wilson, Jr. Still, this is most likely CoJo’s, even though he should be in The Hague for what he did to “Travelin’ Soldier.” Top has plenty of industry support, but his nomination (or Stapleton’s, in an off-cycle year) should’ve gone to Shaboozey or Kane Brown.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Brooks & Dunn – Will Win
Brothers Osborne
Dan + Shay
Muscadine Bloodline – Should Win
Thelma & James
No reason to suspect Brooks & Dunn will lose the Brooks & Dunn Of The Year award, given that they’re getting a tribute performance on the show. Had Dan + Shay’s grotesque “Say So” been a bigger hit, I’d say they could have a shot at an upset. BrOs dropped their fantastic new album after the eligibility period ended, so, on that technicality, I’d vote for Muscadine Bloodline, who continue to bring some truly distinctive, quality writing into the mainstream space. I like Thelma & James a lot, but the omission of The War & Treaty– and, hear me out, Tigirlily Gold– is quite the choice.
Vocal Group of the Year
Lady A[ntebellum]
Little Big Town
Midland – Should Win
Old Dominion
The Red Clay Strays – Will Win
Red Clay Strays’ “Demons in Your Choir” has low-key turned into one of my favorite singles of the year, so I won’t be the least bit upset when they repeat here. Still, I think Midland actually released a better album than did the Strays, and they are way, way, way past due for recognition for how good they actually are. Had the Authenticity Fetishists not taken them out at the knees early on, they’d have taken Old Dominion’s place as the genre’s highest-profile group over the last decade. As ever, the filler nominations illustrate why this category and Vocal Duo should’ve been merged twenty years ago.
New Artist
Avery Anna
Carter Faith – Should Win
Emily Ann Roberts
Tucker Wetmore
Stephen Wilson, Jr. – Will Win
Temu Wallen’s the most popular act nominated here by some margin, but the chasm between the quality of his work and that of even the least of the other four nominees (that’d be Anna, for those keeping score) could swallow the entire ocean’s bulk of fast-fashion refuse. Logic says Wilson takes this on the strength of his multiple nominations, and lesser acts have certainly won this. But Lord, Carter Faith. She’s already established herself as a generational talent who, on merit, should be rivaling Langley as the genre’s biggest star.
Musician of the Year
Tom Bukovac, guitar
Jenee Fleenor, fiddle
Paul Franklin, steel guitar
Rob McNelley, guitar
Charlie Worsham, guitar – Will and Should Win
Now that Paul Franklin finally has won one of these, it feels safe to go all-in on Worsham, whose own solo record from this year would’ve been a worthy inclusion in the Album Of The Year race.
Album of the Year
Ain’t in it for My Health, Zach Top
Dandelion, Ella Langley – Will Win
Middle of Nowhere, Kacey Musgraves – Should Win
Parker McCollum
The Way I Am, Luke Combs
I still don’t know what I would even say to a human who believes Parker McCollum’s album is better than Carter Faith’s Cherry Valley, which it bested in this category at the ACMs and which is very obviously the reason that album wasn’t included here. This is likely to go to Langley and her very, very strong album in a historic sweep on the night, though this is probably the category where she’s most vulnerable, either to a resurgent “albums artist” in Musgraves or the traditionalist Top.
Single of the Year
“Be Her,” Ella Langley
“Choosin’ Texas,” Ella Langley – Will and Should Win
“I Knew It, I Knew You,” Taylor Swift
“Somewhere Over Laredo,” Lainey Wilson
“The Fall,” Cody Johnson
There isn’t even an obvious choice for willful contrarians to rally around: This is the most inevitable outcome since “Where Were You (When The World Stopped Turning)” a generation ago.
Song of the Year
“Be Her,” Smith Ahnquist, HARDY, Ella Langley, Jordan Schmidt
“Beautiful Things,” Jessi Alexander, Jessi Jo Dixon, Connie Harrington, Megan Moroney
“Choosin’ Texas,” Luke Dick, Ella Langley, Miranda Lambert, Joybeth Taylor – Will Win
“Dry Spell,” Luke Laird, Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves, Josh Osborne – Should Win
“Gary,” Stephen Wilson, Jr.
I won’t pretend it’s a matter of good taste; the tackiness and the ribald humor and the perfect song structure of “Dry Spell” remain some of my absolute favorite songwriting of the year. “Choosin’ Texas” has nothing to fear here in terms of actually winning the award, and I’m in no way salty about that. Pleasantly surprised by the omission of “Say So” here.
Vocal Event
“A Song to Sing,” Miranda Lambert feat. Chris Stapleton
“Horses and Divorces,” Kacey Musgraves feat. Miranda Lambert – Should Win
“I Can’t Love You Anymore,” Ella Langley feat. Morgan Wallen – Will Win
“If I Don’t Leave, I’m Gonna Stay,” Carly Pearce feat. Riley Green
“McArthur,” HARDY, Eric Church, Morgan Wallen, & Tim McGraw
The uneasy truce of “Horses & Divorces” is a highlight of Musgraves’ album and is maybe the best duet– not counting any Pistol Annies work, of course– that Lambert has ever recorded. But I do think the Stapleton duet might siphon off just enough to keep that one from pulling off an upset in what will otherwise be a night in which Langley runs the table. Pearce’s fantastic album deserves so much more attention than it’s gotten thus far, but the general snub of Green, who was expected to figure in the Male Vocalist category, suggests the support just isn’t there for her this year.
Music Video
“Choosin’ Texas,” Ella Langley – Will Win
“Dry Spell,” Kacey Musgraves – Should Win
“Gary,” Stephen Wilson, Jr.
“The Fall,” Cody Johnson
“White Horse,” Chris Stapleton
The cameo-heavy, narrative-driven video for “Choosin’ Texas” will easily take this as Langley sweeps, though it’s possible SWJr could pull another surprise win in this category after his victory at the ACMs with a different (and better…) video. But “Dry Spell” is my favorite country music video in ages, capturing Musgraves’ humor perfectly and in ways there’s zero chance a plurality of CMA voters will be on board with.
Sound off in the comments with your take on the Kershaw Kerfuffle, Choosin’ Choosin’ Texas, #CMAsSoWhite, and other thoughts!
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