The 58th batch of Country Music Association awards are set to be handed out on Wednesday evening on a telecast hosted by Luke Bryan, Peyton Manning, and Lainey Wilson.
There has already been a slew of articles written to highlight the divergence between the CMA and Grammy nominees this year, with a focus on how Beyoncé did not make it past the second-round ballot in any CMA category– and, even then, only in the Album of the Year and Female Vocalist of the Year categories– but went four-for-four in the Grammys’ country field, plus a nomination in the Best Americana Performance category.
When it comes to Queen Bey at the CMAs, perhaps the best we can hope for is that Luke Bryan has learned to keep her name out of his mouth.
Entertainer of the Year
Luke Combs
Jelly Roll
Chris Stapleton – Should Win
Morgan Wallen – Will Win
Lainey Wilson
In late November 2024, there is no reason to suspect that a plurality of eligible voters will hesitate to cast their lot for someone of limited capacity whose career is somehow helped by every new controversy that results from his own boorish and unrepentant behavior. They’ll vote for Wallen and do so without holding their noses as in some previous years.
That Kane Brown was left out of this category, especially, is a damning reflection of where CMA voters’ values actually lie.
In terms of who among these nominees continues to be the best ambassador for country music outside of its insular “family,” Stapleton’s broad public appeal is always underestimated. Hell, I’d vote for him for this, alone:
Male Vocalist of the Year
Luke Combs
Jelly Roll – Will Win
Cody Johnson – Should Win
Chris Stapleton
Morgan Wallen
This race is actually competitive again. It stands to reason that Jelly Roll is too big of a current act not to win one of the major awards he’s up for, and he has a legitimate shot of running the table. It seems like this is the prime category he’s most likely to take, but there’s a possibility that voters could go all-in on Wallen as a oh-wait-I-thought-we-weren’t-supposed-to-be-political statement.
But I also think there is a very good chance that CoJo does get recognized for a year that truly vaulted him to the genre’s A-list… and for being an infinitely superior talent to either Wallen or Jelly Roll. He’d get my vote by a hair over Stapleton and Combs, both of whom also did high-caliber work during the eligibility year.
Female Vocalist of the Year
Kelsea Ballerini – Should Win
Ashley McBryde
Megan Moroney
Kacey Musgraves
Lainey Wilson – Will Win
The only real spoiler to a threepeat win for Wilson would be Moroney, and I’m hoping for her inevitably tragic, tone-deaf live performance this evening to be a rare moment of reckoning in an industry that is always going to prioritize its own profits over the recognition of actual talent. We’ve been critical of Carly Pearce’s volatile relationship with pitch over the years, but Pearce absolutely should be here; Moroney is the Paula Abdul to Pearce’s Whitney Houston in terms of actual technical skill.
I’d vote for Ballerini as recognition for the fact that she’s been doing career-best work for the last several years; her collaboration w Noah Kahan is one of the few bright spots among current radio singles. Plus, there’s a now-or-never feeling that she’s about to be jettisoned to the Island of Misfit Toys with previous winner Maren Morris. Though both of their albums were solid, neither McBryde nor Musgraves truly did their finest work this past year.
Vocal Group of the Year
Lady A
Little Big Town
Old Dominion – Will Win
The Red Clay Strays – Should Win
Zac Brown Band
As ever: Merge this with the Duo category to trim the fat. Because only two of these five nominees did anything at all noteworthy in the last year. I’d argue that the most noteworthy thing Old Dominion has ever done is allow lead guitarist Brad Tursi enough downtime to release a solo album that, surprisingly, is one of 2024’s very best.
But, since Old Dominion in their entirety can’t be credited for that album, the easy vote here is for The Red Clay Strays. As noted in last week’s Bluesky Bullet Reviews, I’m still not fully sold on them, but they’re the only one of these nominees who did anything truly relevant in the last year.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Brooks & Dunn
Brothers Osborne
Dan + Shay – Will Win
Maddie & Tae
The War and Treaty – Should Win
Had Tigirlily Gold rightfully taken Brooks & Dunn’s spot in this line-up, I’d have voted for them on the superior quality of their debut album. That they aren’t here or in Best New Artist below is an absurd oversight. Dan+Shay regained enough commercial momentum in 2024 that they should win another trophy here, while the Trotters continue to sing circles around pretty well everyone in Nashville.
New Artist of the Year
Megan Moroney
Shaboozey – Should Win
Nate Smith – Will Win
Mitchell Tenpenny
Zach Top
There’s a non-zero chance Moroney takes this as a way for the industry that has thrown a ridiculous amount of money at her career thus far to try to validate their investment. But, as ROI goes, she’s eventually going to be a case of private equity purchasing and then bankrupting Red Lobster.
Smith’s rapid ascent, honestly, is just as baffling, and it’s hard to imagine he’ll be around once the current Nickelback Country bubble bursts. He’s the most likely winner here, unless “Bitches” Tenpenny somehow rallies votes from his decade-plus in the industry to justify his abhorrent nomination.
I have no delusions of Shaboozey sticking around as a major player within the country industry, either: There are plenty of gatekeepers who already declared him a one-hit wonder before the official adds date for his second single. But he released the best music– and that includes the entirety of his album– during the eligibility period, and I think he will remain a creative force in country music for years to come. I’m also bullish on Top, and I wouldn’t be at all upset were he to win.
Album of the Year
Luke Combs, Fathers & Sons
Jelly Roll, Whitsitt Chapel
Cody Johnson, Leather – Will, Should Win
Kacey Musgraves, Deeper Well
Chris Stapleton, Higher
Three excellent albums here, thanks to Combs, Johnson, and Stapleton. That Combs’ lovely record was included at all is its likely award; he’s said the album was really a one-off project, and this category has only ever recognized “proper” studio albums. I’d argue that Higher is Stapleton’s best album since Traveler and would be a fine winner on quality. But Johnson’s Leather— the original version and not the new “deluxe” edition that is bloated, overlong, and inferior– is one of the best mainstream country albums in ages.
Will that quality be enough to stop the roll of Jelly Roll? There’s a possibility that Combs and Stapleton siphon some of Johnson’s votes, which could give Jelly Roll a path to victory. His album is clearly the weakest of the five nominees– Musgraves is here with what’s clearly her fourth-best album, which is still pretty solid– but his popularity can’t be discounted. It could be a very big night for Mr. Roll…
Single of the Year
“A Bar Song (Tipsy)” – Shaboozey – Should Win
“Dirt Cheap” – Cody Johnson
“I Had Some Help” – Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen – Will Win
“Watermelon Moonshine” – Lainey Wilson
“White Horse” – Chris Stapleton
In terms of production and performance, this ought to be a runaway victory for Shaboozey. I do think there’s a chance for him to win, if there is enough of a, “See? We aren’t racist!” contingent. I just don’t have much optimism to suspect that contingent is big enough to overcome Post Malone’s cross-genre popularity or an opportunity to vote for one of Wallen’s biggest hits to date.
Song of the Year
“Burn it Down” – Will Win
Hillary Lindsey, Parker McCollum, Lori McKenna, and Liz Rose
“Dirt Cheap”
Josh Phillips
“I Had Some Help”
Louis Bell, Ashley Gorley, Charlie Handsome, Hoskins, Austin Post, Ernest Keith Smith, Morgan Wallen, and Chandler Paul Walters
“The Painter” – Should Win
Benjy Davis, Kat Higgins, and Ryan Larkins
“White Horse”
Chris Stapleton and Dan Wilson
The two Cody Johnson hits are, I’d argue, the best compositions here, with “White Horse” as a solid third, though it’s not the best song either Stapleton or Wilson have ever written. But the CoJo singles are likely to split their votes, which I think will pave the way to recognize The Love Junkies’ collaboration with McCollum, who is clearly on the way toward the A-list.
Music Video of the Year
“Dirt Cheap” – Cody Johnson
Director: Dustin Haney
“I Had Some Help” – Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen – Will Win
Directors: Mason Allen and Nicki Fletcher
“I’m Not Pretty” – Megan Moroney
Directors: Jeff Johnson and Megan Moroney
“The Painter” – Cody Johnson – Should Win
Director: Dustin Haney
“‘Wildflowers and Wild Horses” – Lainey Wilson
Director: Patrick Tracy
Again, the CoJo entries are likely to split the votes that could have otherwise led to a win for one or the other video. There’s also a chance this is something they could throw to Wilson to boost her overall tally. But this category has skewed toward the biggest hit single for many years now.
Musical Event of the Year
“Cowboys Cry Too” – Kelsea Ballerini and Noah Kahan – Should Win
“I Had Some Help” – Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen
“I Remember Everything” – Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves
“Man Made a Bar” – Morgan Wallen feat. Eric Church
“you look like you love me” – Ella Langley feat. Riley Green – Will Win
I cannot fathom that they’re actually going to vote for Zach Bryan for any reason, since his entire career is a testament to how unnecessary Music Row’s institutions are for success. I also don’t imagine Ballerini and Kahan will win for a song that thoughtfully confronts toxic masculinity, since that is clearly not a message that’s resonating with a wide swath of people.
Which leaves two Wallen collabs to square off against one of the more distinctive singles to gain traction at radio in ages. This could be another easy win for “I Had Some Help,” but I could see more trad-minded voters skewing in favor of Langley and Green.
Musician of the Year
Tom Bukovac (Guitar)
Jenee Fleenor (Fiddle)
Paul Franklin (Steel Guitar) – Should Win
Rob McNelley (Guitar)
Charlie Worsham (Guitar) – Will Win
In a better timeline, Worsham would be contending for Male Vocalist awards as one of the genre’s prime acts. I’m not mad that he’s likely to end the day as a CMA winner, though. I’ll continue to pick Franklin until the roll is called up yonder or his name is actually called on awards night.
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