2015 ACM Awards: Country Universe Viewer’s Guide

The fiftieth annual Academy of Country Music Awards air tonight, and Country Universe has you covered!  Here’s a rundown of all of the major categories, along with some commentary from our writers about who should win, who will, and what the nominations as a whole say about the current state of country music.

Share your thoughts about this year’s show in the comments, and check back for a list of winners when it’s all said and done.

Update: Join the CU crew on Twitter (@CountryUniverse) during the show to share your thoughts as things unfold!

Garth Brooks 3Entertainer of the Year

Should Win:

  • Jason Aldean
  • Garth Brooks – Jonathan
  • Luke Bryan – Sam
  • Florida-Georgia Line
  • Miranda Lambert – Ben, Kevin

Will Win:

  • Jason Aldean
  • Garth Brooks
  • Luke Bryan
  • Florida Georgia Line
  • Miranda Lambert – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin

BF: I think Lambert is due, but I could get on board with a win for Brooks, whose comeback tour certainly warrants recognition. Those are about the only two possible victories I could swallow.

SG: This is fan-voted, so it really comes down to who can most mobilize their fan base. I give Miranda the nod, simply because she and her husband can both rally the troops. As to who deserves it, it’s hard to deny the impact that Luke Bryan has had on country music, love him or loathe him. He also seems like a fair entertainer, whether it’s shimmying around the stage or falling off them.

JK: Sure, he barely made a dent at radio thanks to a pair of awful singles, and the Ghost Tunes rollout was a bigger embarrassment than his Chris Gaines dress-up game. But none of the other four nominees came close to matching the spectacle and showmanship of Garth Brooks’ comeback tour, and he showed the current generation of A-listers how far they still have to go. But Lambert has been running an aggressive– and, frankly, off-putting– social media campaign for this award, with a slew of celebrities encouraging their fans and followers to vote for her. Combining a mobilized fanbase with her across-the-board support from the ACM voters, she seems likely to win.

KJC:  Lambert has reached critical and commercial peaks this year with what also happens to be her finest album to date.  I enjoyed the Brooks album and his touring stats are, as always, impressive.   Shania’s will be great, too, I’m sure.  But it’s nostalgia driving those ticket sales, not contemporary relevance, and unlike Strait on his farewell tour, it’s not pushing him into previously uncharted territory.

Luke BryanMale Vocalist of the Year

Should Win:

  • Jason Aldean
  • Dierks Bentley – Jonathan, Tara, Ben, Sam, Kevin
  • Luke Bryan
  • Eric Church
  • Brad Paisley
  • Blake Shelton

Will Win:

  • Jason Aldean
  • Dierks Bentley
  • Luke Bryan – Jonathan, Tara, Ben, Kevin
  • Eric Church – Sam
  • Brad Paisley
  • Blake Shelton

SG: Bentley has been one of country music’s top male vocalists for more than a decade now, as well as an excellent in-concert entertainer, so his lack of awards is baffling. He deserves at least a couple for last year’s excellent Riser album, but I think Eric Church is the person most likely to win.

JK: None of these men are particularly strong vocalists, but Bentley and Church are at least pushing themselves artistically. Of the two, I think Bentley is making the most compelling and most consistent music, and he’s long overdue for some major awards recognition. Though Shelton could ride his The Voice-enhanced popularity to another win, it seems more likely that Bryan will take this award.

TS: I tend to weave in and out of my interest in Bentley, but Riser hooked me in again last year.

KJC: The best music by a long shot was made by Dierks Bentley and Eric Church. I prefer a Bentley win because he’s been around longer and has yet to be acknowledged with major awards.  I join in the prediction of Luke Bryan as the winner.  The ACM’s have a populist history in this category, not creating as much of a distinction between Male Vocalist and Entertainer as the CMA’s do.  Garth Brooks, Kenny Chesney, Conway Twitty, and Jason Aldean only have Male Vocalist trophies from the ACM’s.  I think Bryan will join them.

Miranda LambertFemale Vocalist of the Year

Should Win:

  • Brandy Clark  – Sam
  • Miranda Lambert – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
  • Martina McBride
  • Kacey Musgraves
  • Carrie Underwood

Will Win:

  • Brandy Clark
  • Miranda Lambert – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
  • Martina McBride
  • Kacey Musgraves
  • Carrie Underwood

BF: And the Miranda Lambert Award goes to…

SG: Miranda Lambert will win this award until she retires, goes pop or says she supports gun control. Those are about the only scenarios where she can lose the monopoly on female vocalist airplay that she has on country radio. Still, Platinum didn’t grab me like her previous albums did, and Brandy Clark has been on a hot streak as a singer and songwriter. Clark and Musgraves would have more of a shot here if music awards were really about quality of music.

JK: I’m thrilled that she was nominated, but I’d be more inclined to support Clark here if she had been more active during the eligibility period. And I’ve honestly just not been all that impressed by Musgraves beyond “Follow Your Arrow,” though I hope an artist like her can continue to make inroads at country radio. But this is Lambert’s award to lose. She’s been over-recognized in this category– her Four the Record era represents her weakest work, and it spanned three awards cycles– and she released the two worst tracks on Platinum as the album’s first singles. But the album itself finds Lambert close to the top of her game. She’s won previously when she shouldn’t have, but she deserves the award this year.

KJC: Amazingly, Miranda Lambert is the only one of the five nominees to have released a country studio album this year.  (Underwood released a hits compilation, McBride a collection of pop and soul covers, and the other two, no album at all.)   Lambert’s album is also her best to date.  I’m calling it now that if Underwood releases a new album this year that is half as good as the two singles on her hits compilation, she’ll be the one I’m rooting for this time next year.

Maddie & TaeVocal Duo of the Year

Should Win:

  • Brothers Osborne
  • Dan + Shay
  • Florida Georgia Line – Sam
  • Maddie & Tae – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
  • The Swon Brothers

Will Win:

  • Brothers Osborne
  • Dan + Shay
  • Florida Georgia Line – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
  • Maddie & Tae
  • The Swon Brothers

SG: A FLAGA song on my radio is as welcome to me as a hemorrhoid, but they’re so far ahead of the competition that there really is no competition. Country music’s line of succession for vocal duos is pretty clear. The Judds dominated for years until Brooks & Dunn came along, and were unchallenged for a decade until Sugarland became a duo. Now, Florida Georgia Line has a death grip on this category and won’t let go until some other duo pops up. Looking at the other nominees, this may take a few years.

JK: I’m still not entirely sold on Maddie & Tae, but I’m even less sold on the other four.

KJC: Florida Georgia Line still seem like the de facto winners in this category.  But the ACM’s have surprised before.  They were the first to award Brooks & Dunn over the Judds, and have given this trophy to Thompson Square as many times as to Sugarland.  Maybe while voters are reflexively checking off Lambert’s name, they’ll notice the incongruity of celebrating a strong woman and voting for an act that proves the case made by “Girl in a Country Song”, and just choose the singers of that hit, instead.

Little Big TownVocal Group of the Year

Should Win:

  • The Band Perry
  • Lady Antebellum
  • Little Big Town – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
  • Rascal Flatts
  • Zac Brown Band

Will Win:

  • The Band Perry
  • Lady Antebellum
  • Little Big Town – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
  • Rascal Flatts
  • Zac Brown Band

SG: Zac Brown Band normally is the default “deserves to win” band for me, but they’ve been in silent mode for the last year, so Little Big Town gets my nod. Can’t wait for the new ZBB album to come along, though.

JK: Give or take “Sober,” Little Big Town’s most consistently great work came about a decade ago, and Pain Killer is a significant step down from Tornado. But based upon what each of these nominees released in the eligibility period, they’d get my vote on the strength of “Girl Crush” alone. I suspect I’ll be firmly back in Zac Brown Band’s corner come CMA time.

KJC: I like the new LBT album and that they always do something different each time out.  This would only be their second win, and I think they’ve earned a return trip to the podium more than last year’s winner, the Band Perry.  If Zac Brown Band had been active last year, they’d be my pick, so expect me to be rooting for them this time next year.  They’re the only nominee that hasn’t won; the other four have twelve trophies between them.

Thomas RhettNew Artist of the Year

Should Win:

  • Sam Hunt
  • Thomas Rhett – Kevin
  • Cole Swindell

Will Win:

  • Sam Hunt – Sam, Kevin
  • Thomas Rhett – Jonathan, Ben
  • Cole Swindell

BF: Seriously?

SG: You gotta be #&*$%)! kidding me.

JK: Absolutely not.

KJC:  Okay, I’ll bite.  I was about to put my name next to Cole Swindell for “Should Win”, because I thought to myself, “Didn’t I kinda like his album last year?”  Then I checked my iTunes folder and, no. That was Jon Pardi.   He’s not nominated.

Thomas Rhett has put out a single that I’ve liked, however.  (“Beer with Jesus.”)   Hunt for the win because he’s got a big hit out right now.

Miranda Lambert PlatinumAlbum of the Year

Should Win:

  • Jason Aldean, Old Boots, New Dirt
  • Dierks Bentley, Riser – Sam
  • Eric Church, The Outsiders
  • Miranda Lambert, Platinum – Jonathan, Ben, Kevin
  • Little Big Town, Pain Killer

Will Win:

  • Jason Aldean, Old Boots, New Dirt – Sam
  • Dierks Bentley, Riser
  • Eric Church, The Outsiders
  • Miranda Lambert, Platinum – Jonathan, Kevin
  • Little Big Town, Pain Killer

SG: You have four good-to-excellent albums, and Jason Aldean’s Old Boots, New Dirt. Am I jaded enough to think that the “quality” vote gets diluted four ways, leaving a clear win for the worst album in the category? Yes. Yes I am.

JK:It’s still only her second-or-third best album, but Platinum is the best of the five albums nominated here and will make for a deserving winner. Aldean is completely out of his depth in this company, and Pain Killer is scattershot and overproduced. If there’s an upset, this could be the voters’ best opportunity to recognize either Church or Bentley. Church’s album takes more risks and misfires more often, but I wouldn’t be too mad if the thoughtful and well-crafted Riser were to surprise here.

KJC: Almost as good as the Grammy lineup two months ago.  This time, though, Brandy Clark’s not in the running.  So for me, it’s a race between Lambert and Church, who made my top two albums of 2014.  Happy with a win for either, with a slight edge for Lambert.  I’m assuming she’ll win, as she has for her previous three studio albums.  If she does, she joins Taylor Swift’s Fearless and the Dixie Chicks’ Fly among albums that have won all three industry awards for Best Country Album.

Dierks Bentley Drunk on a PlaneSingle of the Year

Should Win:

  • Dierks Bentley, “Drunk on a Plane” – Jonathan, Sam, Kevin
  • Lee Brice, “I Don’t Dance”
  • Kenny Chesney, “American Kids”
  • Florida Georgia Line, “Dirt”
  • Miranda Lambert, “Automatic”

Will Win:

  • Dierks Bentley, “Drunk on a Plane” – Kevin
  • Lee Brice, “I Don’t Dance”
  • Kenny Chesney, “American Kids”
  • Florida Georgia Line, “Dirt” – Sam
  • Miranda Lambert, “Automatic” – Jonathan, Ben

BF: I don’t love any of these singles, but I don’t really see anyone challenging Lambert for this.

SG: “Dirt” is widely recognized as Florida Georgia Line’s best ever single, but that’s damning with faint praise. “Drunk on a Plane” was fun, catchy and clever, but I think that either the Lambert/Shelton Machine rolls on, or FLAGA gets rewarded for managing to record a song that didn’t include either a drug reference or a misogynistic view toward women.

JK: Without a clear challenger across the ballot, it seems likely that Miranda could just run the table. A win for the pedestrian and bafflingly overpraised “Dirt” would exemplify just how low the bar for perceived quality has been reset.

KJC: Seems like the obvious place to acknowledge Dierks Bentley.

Kacey MusgravesSong of the Year

Should Win:

  • “American Kids,”  Rodney Clawson, Luke Laird, and Shane McAnally (Kenny Chesney)
  • “Automatic,” Nicole Gallyon, Natalie Hemby, and Miranda Lambert (Miranda Lambert)
  • “Drink a Beer,” Jim Beavers and Chris Stapelton (Luke Bryan)
  • “Follow Your Arrow,” Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, and Kacey Musgraves (Kacey Musgraves) – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
  • “Give Me Back My Hometown,” Eric Church and Luke Laird (Eric Church)
  • “I Hold On,” Dierks Bentley and Brett James (Dierks Bentley)

Will Win:

  • “American Kids,”  Rodney Clawson, Luke Laird, and Shane McAnally (Kenny Chesney)
  • “Automatic,” Nicole Gallyon, Natalie Hemby, and Miranda Lambert (Miranda Lambert) – Jonathan, Ben, Sam
  • “Drink a Beer,” Jim Beavers and Chris Stapelton (Luke Bryan)
  • “Follow Your Arrow,” Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, and Kacey Musgraves (Kacey Musgraves) – Kevin
  • “Give Me Back My Hometown,” Eric Church and Luke Laird (Eric Church)
  • “I Hold On,” Dierks Bentley and Brett James (Dierks Bentley)

JK: Since the ACMs have, historically, been more oriented toward radio than have the CMAs, it’s hard to imagine that “Follow Your Arrow” will repeat the surprise victory it pulled off in this category last fall. Still, it would get my vote for its jaunty sing-along melody and well-turned phrases. “I Hold On,” which mines nostalgia from real reflection on personal experiences, is the only other nominee that I could stomach winning an award for its songwriting. But if Miranda could win for “Over You,” which is still far and away her worst song, there’s no reason to doubt that she’ll win for the not-much-better “Automatic.”

KJC: I think the wave of acclaim for “Follow Your Arrow” will carry it to a win, but watch out for “Drink a Beer.”   There’s a very high body count among previous winners in this category.

glencampbellMusic Video of the Year

Should Win:

  • Dierks Bentley, “Drunk on a Plane” – Jonathan, Sam
  • Glen Campbell, “I’m Not Gonna Miss You”
  • Kenny Chesney, “American Kids”
  • Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood, “Somethin’ Bad” – Kevin
  • Keith Urban, “Cop Car”

Will Win:

  • Dierks Bentley, “Drunk on a Plane”
  • Glen Campbell, “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” – Jonathan, Sam
  • Kenny Chesney, “American Kids”
  • Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood, “Somethin’ Bad” – Kevin
  • Keith Urban, “Cop Car”

SG: It’s Glen Campbell, people! Give the man his award and thank him for an excellent career.

JK: Flip a coin between the fun but not-terribly-original videos for “Drunk on a Plane” and “Somethin’ Bad” for a more deserving winner, I guess. But the video for Campbell’s Grammy-winning and Oscar-nominated song is the obvious choice for who will win.

KJC: Lambert’s won this twice and Underwood’s won it once.  Now they’ve made a video together, and a good one, at that.

Miranda Lambert Carrie Underwood Somethin Bad VideoVocal Event of the Year

Should Win:

  • The Cadillac Three with Florida Georgia Line, Dierks Bentley, and Mike Eli, “The South”
  • Florida Georgia Line with Luke Bryan, “This is How We Roll”
  • Miranda Lambert with Carrie Underwood, “Somethin’ Bad”
  • Tim McGraw with Faith Hill, “Meanwhile Back at Mama’s” – Jonathan, Ben, Sam, Kevin
  • Blake Shelton with Ashley Monroe, “Lonely Tonight”

Will Win:

  • The Cadillac Three with Florida Georgia Line, Dierks Bentley, and Mike Eli, “The South”
  • Florida Georgia Line with Luke Bryan, “This is How We Roll” – Sam
  • Miranda Lambert with Carrie Underwood, “Somethin’ Bad” – Kevin
  • Tim McGraw with Faith Hill, “Meanwhile, Back at Mama’s”
  • Blake Shelton with Ashley Monroe, “Lonely Tonight” – Jonathan, Ben

BF: Just once, I would like to see Ashley Monroe and/or the Pistol Annies receive an ACM nomination that has nothing to do with Blake Shelton.

SG: There’s a chance to give an award to the two most popular women in country music or three bros. You know the saying: “Bros before artistically and commercially superior female artists.”

JK: These at least feel a bit more like true collaborations than many of the nominees over the past several years, which have increasingly just amounted to, “Famous Person Singing Faint Harmony In The Chorus.” I won’t object to Ashley Monroe winning an ACM award, but I’ll just pretend it’s a retroactive award for the Pistol Annies.

KJC: So many previous winners in this category that it’s difficult to handicap.  My heart belongs to the McGraw and Hill collaboration, but Lambert and Underwood are the highest-wattage pairing this year, and the ACM’s tend to go in that direction.

14 Comments

  1. I won’t be watching but I’ll be rooting for the Tim & Faith collaboration. Sadly, Tim is finding out who his friends are – and probably few are in country music.

  2. Great write up here…

    I actually think that Dierks is going to be the surprise winner for male vocalist. He has been around for a while, and I think he has the right blend of critical and commercial success. I think he’ll win…

    I do think that “Follow Your Arrow” will win for song.

    I am really looking forward to the show…

  3. My Predictions
    Entertainer
    Should Miranda I guess?
    Will Luke or Miranda. Luke Bryan I think might be the only safe choice but given the Beyoncé tweet Miranda I think will win despite how godawful Little Red Wagon.
    Male
    Should Dierks Bentley
    Will Luke Bryan or Jason Aldean really though why wasn’t Tim McGraw nominated at this point this is an award I’m just gonna ignore
    Female
    Should Carrie Underwood Little Toy Guns & Something In The Water are top-notch Miranda has just been lagging behind it feels like.
    Will Miranda. So Miranda has 2 guaranteed awards how many more will she get tonight.
    Vocal Duo
    Should Maddie & Tae. If Fly Can do well enough and their album sells decently enough these guys could triumph over FGL CMA time.
    Will FGL. Honestly I can only hope they make a huge mistake release and bomb on the charts remember Jerrod Niemann.
    Vocal Group.
    Should Little Big Town or for me personally Gloriana man these guys I always love them I just wish radio would strait up abandon Lady A and have Gloriana fill the spot they’re more entertaining.
    Will Win. Little Big Town. The Girl Crush controversy plus when Lady A’s Freestyle bombed sealed LBT for the win
    New Artist
    Should N/A Id rather have the following artists Jon Pardi Eric Paslay Brandy Clark Maddie & Tae Mickey Guyton and Kelsea Ballerini
    Will Win. Sam Hunt. Cause his form of Pop R&B music is dominating country music.
    The Rest of these well hand them to Miranda even though Dierks Bentley or Tim McGraw deserves them. Sorry never heard of Glen Campbell no have any real ambition.

    Regardless this show is gonna be a train wreck and I enjoy watching a good train wreck.

    Well sorry for posting this to but once again with every post. Support Gloriana & Trouble please they deserve to officially break out.

    Total Miranda Wins: 7
    Carrie Wins 2
    Luke Bryan Wins 1
    FGL Wins 1
    New Artists Sam Hunt 1
    Vocal Group Little Big Town 1
    Well let’s get ready for Miranda to be up on the stage a bunch and for her to bring the hardware home.

  4. The gun control comment was an unneeded political fire starter.

    How does the song rotation work? It seems like some of the songs “Follow Your Arrow” and “Drink a Beer” for example, have been out forever.

    Hopefully, Garth, Dierks, and Eric clean house.

    Zac Brown Band silent is thousand better than any currently active band loud.

  5. CountryKnight I think they do sons released during 2014 or had their impact in 2014.

    You have a better chance of Josh Turners Lay Low staying on the charts then those 3 cleaning the house.

    Hey! The only bad bands are Rascal Flats and Lady A also Parmalee but Gloriana LBT The Band Perry are all really good.

  6. @ Sam,

    “He also seems like a fair entertainer, whether it’s shimmying around the stage or falling off them.”

    My hat is off to you, sir.

    … But you had better be wrong about those Aldean and “Dirt” wins.

  7. Zac Brown Band … ’ve been in silent mode for the last year
    Dang, you’re right, The Grohl Sessions cane out in 2013.

    I’m sorry to say that as much as I love Miranda, I’ve come to hate “Automatic” with a passion normally reserved for bad scifi. The whole faux nostalgia shtick is annoying, especially considering Miranda’s age, but it’s the lazy rhyme of “couldn’t buy iiiiit” that just really grinds my gears. Nil points.

  8. Thanks, Jonathan. You have no idea how much I hope I’m wrong, but awards being handed out to Blake Shelton and Jason Aldean have left me jaded.

  9. I have trouble getting behind Lambert as EOTY. I understand that some say she’s “overdue” but I think this was a little bit of a down year for her. Her past two singles flopped at radio and “Automatic” didn’t even reach #1. Plus, her past two singles were pretty bad songs.

    I would much rather see this go to Brooks. He’s had the most notable year on the road, he’s had excellent album sales, and has released the best album of any of the nominees this year. I much prefer “Man Against Machine” to “Platinum.” It’s not even close.

    I think you could also argue that “Mom” was the best single released by any of the EOTY nominees this year.

  10. Thank you, Jonathan. “Dirt” is terrible, and I can’t understand how anyone wraps their head around liking it.

    I’d rather listen to Cruise or Sun Daze any day, honestly.

  11. KJC in what way did Lambert reach commercial peaks this year? Her singles have done the worst of any since her second album, and sales for this one are below her past couple no? I think it would be weird if Lambert finally won this year.

  12. I’d love to see Brooks win Entertainer, but I disagree that his album was anywhere near as good as Lambert’s, though I did like it in general.

    Also, for those who are interested, Jonathan is live tweeting the ACMs on our Twitter feed.

  13. That was absolutely the most jarring, poorly directed awards show I have ever seen. Actually, maybe the worst televised live event I have ever seen… Wow. The show was a train wreck. And I simply mean in terms of a television show. (Forget about the winners or quality of performances or the fact that it did not feel current at all.). It was like watching a Youtube fan- made smart phone awards show video. Too much audience. The stars were buried in the crowd. The camera pulled away and it was like having nosebleed seats to the performances. What a mess… It felt more like the MTV movie awards or CMT awards where there is no prestige in the awards. However, as television shows go, those award shows are a class act compared to these ACMs…I am stunned at how bad it was…

  14. Hmmm…Four the Record is my least favorite song. I really did feel she was coasting with that album, not to mention that it had my least favorite Lambert song of all, “Over You.”

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